2017 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: The case for why Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon are all overvalued

Everyone is buying this year's rookie class, but Chris Towers thinks the hype train is getting out of control. Here's why.

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Remember when everyone in the Fantasy community had a healthy skepticism about running backs? When we were worried about things like time shares and bad offensive lines, and didn't immediately assume every rookie running back would be an immediate Fantasy superstar?

Crazy times, 12 months ago...

In all seriousness, we've seen a major shift in how running backs are being valued from this time a year ago. According to TheHuddle.com, 10 of the top-21 in ADP this season are running backs; in 2016, only five backs were taken inside of the top-21. If last season was the peak of the zero-RB craze, the pendulum has swung back the other way, with Fantasy players and experts more willing to put their faith in backfields.

That is especially true of the rookie class, especially what has become The Big Four: Christian McCaffrey (No. 21 overall ADP), Leonard Fournette (No. 25), Dalvin Cook (No. 31), and Joe Mixon (No. 40). The Fantasy community is seemingly all-in on this quartet, as Adam, Dave, Jamey, and Heath discussed on Monday's episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast:

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Aizer boldly declared it, "The Year of the Rookie Running Back," and that was when I knew: I wouldn't be drafting any of these four players. I already gave my contrarian opinion on Ezekiel Elliott earlier in the week, so I'll just keep the trend going, and present the case against investing heavily in each member of this rookie class.

The case against McCaffrey

It's easy to say "Just ignore the preseason," until the games actually start. Once you see guys actually hit the field, it's awfully tough to ignore big plays and highlights, and McCaffrey has had plenty of them in the early going.

But there's a reason we tell you to ignore the preseason, and I think we're seeing exactly why with McCaffrey. Yes, he has looked electric, even against first-team defenses. There's no doubting McCaffrey is an electric player, and I won't try to argue that he isn't. What McCaffrey isn't – at least not yet – is a starting running back on his own team.

The Panthers have played 29 snaps with Derek Anderson in the game so far in the preseason, and McCaffrey has been on the field for just 13 of them. Jonathan Stewart played six of the first nine offensive snaps in their most recent game as well, which means we're still waiting for the point where McCaffrey is the top option in this offense. He doesn't need to be right away – if McCaffrey is the starter by Week 3, you won't care – but there's plenty of reason to think McCaffrey is stuck in a timeshare all season long.

If you could get McCaffrey in the fourth round, where Ty Montgomery is going off the board, he'd be a terrific value. Investing a mid-to-late second rounder assumes he's going to become the unquestioned starter sooner rather than later. That's certainly possible, but if the Panthers stubbornly stick with Stewart, you could end up with a real disappointment, especially in non-PPR leagues.

McCaffrey is going ahead of Lamar Miller, Isaiah Crowell, and Mark Ingram, three players with track records and workload expectations I would buy over McCaffrey's.

The case against Fournette

Fournette doesn't have any concerns about playing time, assuming he can get on and stay on the field. Of course, he is already dealing with a foot injury that will keep him out of at least Thursday's preseason game, if not the finale as well. You might go into the season with Fournette having logged 12 snaps of game action as a professional.

This is the same foot that was an issue for Fournette, so that's an obvious concern. What remains a big concern, beyond the injury, is the health of Jacksonville's offense. If Fournette is healthy, we expect a heavy workload, and that is typically enough to make a running back worth the investment, especially one as talented as Fournette.

On the other hand, is Fournette more talented than Todd Gurley? Gurley got 321 touches in 2016 and, well… I don't need to tell you how that went. Hoping Fournette's talent overwhelms enough to cancel out the bad situation around him makes sense, but drafting him at this spot is less a hope and more an assumption. 

To be sure, there are safer options available at a cheaper price. For instance, we've seen Miller, Ingram and Crowell succeed in the NFL before, and it's hard to argue any of the three are likely to be in worse offenses than Jacksonville's. As with McCaffrey, I would rather on that trio than Fournette, given their history of success in the NFL.

The case against Cook

Like Fournette, Cook doesn't have much competition for playing time in Minnesota, at least not right at this moment. Latavius Murray is set to make his preseason debut this weekend, and the Vikings invested heavily enough in him this offseason that it's reasonable to think he won't go away.

Still, Murray has never shown much evidence that he's anything more than an average talent at running back. Cook obviously showed a lot more than that in his time at Florida State, so it seems fair to assume he'll get the majority of the work. The problem is, he might be landing in just as bad a situation as Fournette.

OK, the Vikings' offense overall is likely to be more functional than Jacksonville's, but this was one of the league's worst running games a year ago. The Vikings averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in 2016, the worst number in football. The offensive line might be improved, but can it turn things around that quickly? Is Cook a special enough talent to carry an offense all on his own?

To take Cook at 31 overall, you have to assume he won't cede more than 10 carries per game to Murray – especially not at the goal line – and that the Vikings will be drastically improved as a rushing offense overall. It's possible, obviously; I'd bet they won't be dead last in YPC again, at least.

However, if you're worried about someone like Carlos Hyde or C.J. Anderson working in a mediocre offense, Cook faces a lot of those same concerns. And those two are coming off the board 17 and 27 picks later than Cook in CBSSports.com leagues right now.

The case against Mixon

Mixon might have an even less sure role than any of the three other backs in this group. Jeremy Hill may be the most underwhelming starting running back in the league, but the Bengals have stuck with him through consecutive seasons that have seen him average 3.6 and 3.8 yards per carry, and they aren't showing much inclination to go away from him yet.

Mixon got more snaps than Hill in the first preseason game, but when the first-team offense played more in Week 2, he and Hill split work evenly, both working 15 snaps a piece. In fact, in the 38 snaps Andy Dalton has played through the first two games, Hill has been on the field for 24 of them; Mixon has played the other 14.

If you want to say Hill is mediocre, I won't argue, but Marvin Lewis might. I've believed Giovani Bernard was the most talented back in Cincinnati each of the last two seasons, but my opinion doesn't matter in this instance, and what you think about Mixon doesn't matter either. Regardless of the mediocre production, the Bengals have still given Hill 200-plus carries in each of the last two season.

Maybe this will be the year Hill falls out of favor. Mixon is an exceptionally talented back, and the Bengals were willing to risk plenty of backlash to take him in the middle of the second round. On the other hand, Hill hasn't lost his job yet, and so far in the preseason, Mixon's role looks a lot like Bernard's; he has backed up Hill, and has gone out on pass routes 21 times, vs. 12 rush attempts.

Mixon has slipped the most of this group, but he's still going ahead of players like Tevin Coleman and Ty Montgomery, who are looking at similar roles in better offenses. Let alone the likes of Hyde, Anderson, or Ameer Abdullah, who look like the primary options in their respective offenses.

Heck, if you want to bet on someone who might become a star down the road but may not have much use early on, Doug Martin tends to go off the board four rounds after Mixon, and should get plenty of work after his three-game suspension ends. Betting on him getting his job back makes more sense than hoping the Bengals will finally bench Hill.