2017 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Training Camp Believe It or Not 1.0, with star turns from Ty Montgomery and Christian McCaffrey
Everyone is selling something at the start of training camp, and Heath Cummings tries to help you sift through the noise.
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It's that time of year again. Every NFL team is knee deep in training camp and the preseason officially kicks off on Thursday night. It's an exciting time of year for sure, but it is also peak snake oil season. Agents, coaches, and even players all have something to sell at this time of the year, and we're so starved for information, we'll swallow just about anything.
Not that this is all bad. You just need to have a discerning mind and a skeptical eye. That's what we'll try to provide here as we wade through the week's "news" each week of the preseason.
"Ty Montgomery is the man in Green Bay"
When the Packers drafted three running backs, many still had Montgomery pigeon-holed in a scat back role. Even after Mike McCarthy called Montgomery the starter, no one really bought it. That hasn't stopped McCarthy form continuing to praise his running back:
Mentioned on @nflnetwork: #Packers coach Mike McCarthy is high on "the full threat" Ty Montgomery, now 224 pounds. What McCarthy told me: pic.twitter.com/3VYEhLEgIW
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) July 31, 2017
Couple this with reports that Montgomery has bulked up to carry a big load and spent the summer working with the "footwork king" and the hype may finally be catching up to the reality: Ty Montgomery is going to be a Fantasy stud.
Verdict: Believe it
I know, this combines some of our least favorite things about training camp: We've got hype; we've got coachspeak; and we have speculation on body changes. The thing is, Montgomery was really good last year. Like, incredibly good, on a per touch basis.
Montgomery averaged 5.9 yards per carry, caught 78.6 percent of his targets, and averaged 7.9 yards per reception. Those numbers are elite. Oh yeah, he also had the best "elusive rating" in the NFL per Pro Football Focus after Week 7. This is when coachspeak does matter to me: When I believe a player is extremely talented and the only thing he needs is more touches. It sure sounds like the Packers coaches want to give him more.
To be clear, I'm not saying Montgomery will avoid a committee. He's going to share the load. So are about 70 percent of the lead backs in the NFL. What I am saying is Montgomery is a very talented running back in an explosive offense, and he should get more than enough touches to be a high-end No. 2 running back. In fact, I think that's closer to his floor than his ceiling in PPR. I'm fine with drafting him in Round 3 in PPR, but you can wait until the fourth in most leagues.
"Nelson Agholor is becoming a thing again"
Remember Nelson Agholor? The Eagles spent a first round pick on him in 2015. He was a star at USC, catching 104 passes for 1,313 yards and 12 touchdowns. I'll forgive you for forgetting him, because he's been a disaster in the NFL in his first two seasons. But it seems like things have changed in Year 3, as they often do for wide receivers.
Agholor has shown out in practice, working with the first team and telling reporters he's in a "great place". Agholor excelled in both the return game and as a receiver at the team's first open practice. Agholor's teammates are praising his resolve, and there's been a lot of buzz that he could be the team's starting slot receiver in 2017.
It's funny how we spend so much time talking about third-year breakout receivers in the industry, but we also write receivers off after a couple of bad years. Agholor has the talent to make a huge impact on the Eagles and your Fantasy team this season.
Verdict: Don't believe it
You know why Agholor has spent so much time with the first team? They can't get everyone healthy at the same time. Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith and Jordan Matthews have all missed time. I find it hard to believe there would be any buzz around Agholor if the three were all healthy and practicing.
The Eagles have a ton of weapons in the passing game, with Zach Ertz and Darren Sproles both figuring to demand a chunk of the team's targets as well. Agholor's ceiling seems to be the third receiver and fourth or fifth in the pecking order of targets. If this was New Orleans or New England, I could understand a late-round flier on someone in his position getting buzz. The Eagles are not the Saints or the Patriots. Pass on Agholor unless the injuries in Philadelphia start to look far more serious.
"Jordan Reed's toe injury is not a big deal"
You could hear the collective gasp from the Fantasy Football universe when Reed started the year on the PUP list with a sprained toed. Reed has never played 16 games in a season, and despite his huge upside, that takes him out of consideration for a top-three tight end ranking for me.
But just as soon as we got concerned, Jay Gruden downplayed the injury after Reed visited, saying they found nothing "earth-shattering".
It's easy to get spooked by Reed's injury history, but this sounds pretty minor. Until we get to mid-August you probably shouldn't concern yourself with minor injuries.
Verdict: Don't believe it
Not at this ADP. Reed is being drafted in the fourth round, ahead of Greg Olsen. That's assuming health, which Reed doesn't have on his side now and has never had for very long. We're talking about a player who has suffered five reported concussions, a separated shoulder, multiple thigh and hamstring strains, and at least one knee injury.
While those injuries don't have any bearing on Reed's toe, they do suggest that you shouldn't go into the season expecting 16 games from him. Even if he was completely healthy right now. At this point we aren't even sure he'll be ready for Week 1, which lowers the chances of him playing the 11.5 games he's averaged per season. I'm not drafting a tight end in the fourth round with his injury history who is currently on the PUP list. You shouldn't either.
"Christian McCaffrey cannot be covered"
A picture is worth a thousand words, right? Well this short video is worth about a million.
A cleaner version of what Christian McCaffrey did to Luke Kuechly earlier pic.twitter.com/glWgsh5vL7
— Bill Voth (@PanthersBill) August 2, 2017
Verdict: Believe it
Well, I should clarify. McCaffrey can't be covered by anyone who is going to attempt to cover him on a regular basis. Not linebackers, not safeties and probably not nickel corners. On the rare occasion an opposing team lines one of their top corners up on McCaffrey, they've got a shot. But then they had better hope Carolina doesn't throw a quick screen and make that corner try to tackle him in the open field.
McCaffrey is a unique species in the NFL, and possibly the future of the running back position. My Fantasy questions about him in 2017 have nothing to do with his talent. I wonder what his usage will be, because Jonathan Stewart isn't disappearing. I wonder if the Panthers are going to change their offense entirely, because they've largely avoided the types of passes McCaffrey excels on. I wonder about Cam Newton's accuracy on short passes; it's never been good.
Those are the types of questions that will have to be answered in season. If all of them go McCaffrey's way, he could absolutely be a top ten running back in PPR leagues. He could be better than Leonard Fournette in both formats. The talent is there, let's see how the situation works out. I'm comfortable drafting McCaffrey in Round 4 of a PPR draft or Round 5 in non-PPR. But he'll probably be gone by then.
"Tyrell Williams can more than make up for the loss of Mike Williams"
Things haven't gone great for the Chargers already this preseason, with Mike Williams' injury and the loss of Forrest Lamp for the season. Mike Williams hasn't been ruled out for the season, but he won't be practicing with the team, and it's highly unlikely he's going to make an impact this season.
It's never good to lose your first- and second-round picks before the season but, at least at receiver, the Chargers should be just fine. That's because of another Williams, Tyrell. You know, the one who had a 1,000-yard season in 2016, and is entering his third year in the league. Tyrell Williams was a bit of a Fantasy afterthought after the team selected Mike Williams, but he becomes a solid No. 3 with upside
Verdict: Believe it
I still don't know why the Chargers used their first-round pick on Mike Williams, because Tyrell Willimas looks pretty special. If Keenan Allen stays healthy, the elder Williams won't match last seasons' breakout campaign. But he may do even better in the touchdown department. He's an outstanding selection as a third receiver who could have No. 1 potential if Allen gets hurt again.
















