Brandon Marshall's 2016 was uncharacteristically horrible. He scored just three times (a six-year low); averaged 52.5 yards per game (a 10-year low); caught fewer than four passes per game (a 10-year low); and hauled in just 46.1 percent of his passes (a career low by eight percentage points).
Is it because he's old? Or is it because the Jets were a dumpster fire with inadequate quarterbacks, with defenses keying in on Marshall as soon as Eric Decker went down with an injury?
The best passer he worked with, Ryan Fitzpatrick, completed just 44.1 percent of his passes to Marshall. However, Marshall did pick up 14.3 yards per grab on the ones he did catch, and added three red-zone scores. Bryce Petty and Geno Smith combined for a 43.3 completion rate for 87 yards -- 7.3 yards per catch -- and no touchdowns on passes to Marshall.
It's evidence like this that suggests Marshall's awful 2016 wasn't all on him. Obviously, the Giants agree -- they signed him just five days after the Jets released him in March.
But it doesn't mean he's going to morph back into a 1,000-yard, mega-touchdown machine. He knows it, because the Giants told him so.
"They were clear with me, we have a No. 1 receiver that's not even in his prime yet, and that we also have a freakin' stud in Sterling Shepard, so there's only one ball," Marshall told the New York Post regarding his role. "I want this to be my most efficient year. It may not be my best statistically, but when it comes to the standpoint of efficiency, I really want to dominate in that category."
What pro athlete begs to dominate in efficiency instead of volume? Maybe a goaltender, but never a wide receiver. Marshall knows he's no longer the top banana in The Big Apple.
He has to know his targets won't be near the 9.5 per game he's averaged over the course of his career. So what will he see? Well, Manning has averaged 7.4 targets per game to outside receivers not named Odell Beckham in 45 games since OBJ entered the league, so we can start there. To be sure, Marshall will probably also spend a little time lining up in the slot, but seven targets per game feels like a safe number to start with.
Now let's talk receptions. From 2007 to 2015, Marshall caught 862 of the 1,427 targets he saw, good for a 60.4 percent catch rate. Again, that's a safe estimate for Fantasy owners to cling to. So if we do the math -- seven targets per game at a 60 percent catch rate -- Marshall can be penciled in for 67 catches on 112 targets.
Already, you can tell he's headed for numbers he's not used to -- Marshall has averaged 92.1 per season over the last 10 years. That's something Fantasy owners should get used to.
What's he going to do with those 67 catches? Marshall's career receiving average is 12.8 yards per grab. I'd expect a lower average this year, especially since Marshall isn't the big-play threat Beckham is. If he averages 12 yards per grab on 67 catches then he'll barely get 800 yards, or roughly 50 per week.
Doesn't this sound terrible? It makes Marshall a less-than-ideal Fantasy receiver, but there's one thing Marshall can still do to save his value: score touchdowns. And that's something the Giants desperately need from him. Known as a red-zone beast, 50 of Marshall's 82 career scores have come in the red zone, including 19 of his last 25.
With so many passing options for defenses to account for in New York, it's not too far-fetched to expect Marshall to get at least seven scores. That gives him a projected stat line of ...
It's real close to what Jamison Crowder tallied last year, or two catches shy of Delanie Walker's 2016 delivery.
Marshall's projected stat line would have made him the No. 32 receiver in Fantasy last season, regardless of format. In 2015 it would have been good for about 30th among wideouts. Fantasy owners should draft Marshall accordingly -- as a No. 3 receiver with limited upside.
Compare this with his draft average. As of early July his Average Draft Position makes him the 27th receiver off the board at 75th overall, according to Fantasy Pros. That's just too soon given what I expect from him.
All of this isn't what you're used to expecting from him, but Marshall isn't expecting a humongous season either. He's shooting for efficiency, and Fantasy owners don't get points for that.
