2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Breaking down wide receiver ADP rankings
Jamey Eisenberg looks at the Average Draft Position for receivers heading into 2018.
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The Average Draft Position for wide receivers will likely fluctuate a lot between now and the beginning of September. You could see a lot of movement because of injuries and guys (hopefully) living up to their preseason hype.
For example, Doug Baldwin (knee) is falling because of his injury status, and his current ADP is the end of Round 3 after starting out in the back end of the second round. Josh Gordon is also on the decline because he's not with the Browns, and his ADP is in Round 5 after he was originally a third-round pick.
Some other guys seeing a decrease in ADP include Alshon Jeffery (shoulder), Julian Edelman (suspension) and Rishard Matthews (undisclosed injury) because of their status at the start of preseason games. In the case of Edelman, I'm fine drafting him at his current ADP in Round 7, especially PPR, because I expect him to post quality stats once his four-game suspension is over.
On the other hand, Jarvis Landry's ADP is on the rise because of Gordon's absence -- and his passionate speech on HBO's Hard Knocks. Other guys rising include Jordy Nelson, Marquise Goodwin and Anthony Miller, who have all performed well in training camp and are getting a lot of hype.
And now that the preseason games are underway, you will likely see more guys rise with strong performances. For example, Kelvin Benjamin scored in his first preseason game against the Panthers on Thursday night, and his ADP should improve from Round 11. JuJu Smith-Schuster also likely solidified his Round 5 ADP with his 71-yard touchdown grab against the Eagles.
It will only continue over the next few weeks of preseason action -- positive and negative -- and the key for you will be finding guys at the right price tag. And we'll be here to help.
We're going to break down the overall ADP throughout the preseason, and we'll continue to monitor how this wide receiver list changes. For now, here is an undervalued receiver based on ADP, an overvalued one and some sleepers to target with late-round picks.
Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola are gone, and Edelman is out for the first four games. While Rob Gronkowski will clearly be a focal point of the passing game for the Patriots, so will Hogan, and he could be a steal at his current ADP in Round 8.
He must stay healthy after missing seven games in 2017 due to injury, but he was on pace for 66 catches for 876 yards and 10 touchdowns before starting to miss time in Week 10. Hogan also played well in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles with six catches for 128 yards and a touchdown, which came after Cooks was hurt early in that game.
Hogan has No. 2 Fantasy receiver potential, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 5 in the majority of leagues. Of the nine games he played last year, Hogan scored double digits in Fantasy points in a non-PPR league in four of them.
Hill is being drafted in the middle of Round 3 as the No. 12 receiver off the board, and that makes me nervous. I'm afraid he's going to struggle this season compared to his production in 2017. It's minor, but I would prefer to draft him in Round 4 instead.
Hill had only four targets in the red zone last season and failed to score inside the 20, and that could be troubling based on how well Alex Smith threw the ball down the field. If Patrick Mahomes can't connect down the field with Hill at the same success rate, Hill could struggle.
I might be wrong on Hill's draft value, but there are things working against him. He's a risky pick in the Round 3 range.
Sleepers to target
There are a lot of players who fall into this category given their ADP. So I'm just going to list 10 of my favorite receivers being drafted in Round 10 or later, and all of these guys are worth late-round fliers.
- Jamison Crowder, Redskins (ADP - No. 114 overall)
- Kenny Golladay, Lions (ADP - No. 115 overall)
- DJ Moore, Panthers (ADP - No. 120 overall)
- Nelson Agholor, Eagles (ADP - No. 122 overall)
- Anthony Miller, Bears (ADP - No. 125 overall)
- Kenny Stills, Dolphins (ADP - No. 129 overall)
- Mike Williams, Chargers (ADP - No. 134 overall)
- Cameron Meredith, Saints (ADP - No. 157 overall)
- Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (ADP - No. 158 overall)
- Geronimo Allison, Packers (ADP - No. 160 overall)
Crowder, Stills and potentially Moore should be the best receivers on their respective teams, and I will have plenty of stock in Crowder this season. I also love Stills, who is being drafted after DeVante Parker (No. 121 overall).
Agholor had a third-year breakout in 2017, and he should benefit in a big way if Jeffery is out for any part of the regular season. Lockett also would see a big boost in production if Baldwin were to miss any action when the games count.
Golladay, Meredith, Williams and Allison willto open the season. But all have the ability to be No. 3 Fantasy receivers in the majority of leagues. Williams is quickly becoming one of my favorite players heading into 2018 since he should bounce back in a big way from last year's bust rookie campaign.
As for Miller, he just seems to have that it factor watching him in training camp as the No. 2 receiver for the Bears opposite Allen Robinson. If Mitchell Trubisky is good in his sophomore season, Miller could be a star, making him a steal at this price tag.
So what sleepers should you snatch in your Fantasy Football draft? And which wide receivers do you need to jump all over? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Alvin Kamara's huge breakout last season and find out.
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