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Not to get all psychological on you, but it's human nature to want someone or something that's previously created a gratifying response. It happens in life and, yeah, even in Fantasy Football. We're wired to chase players who have given us big numbers in the past, maybe even expect them, even if they've only done it once before.
There's no bigger example than what's happening now with Saints running back Alvin Kamara. Dude made us euphoric. And, as such, people are taking him on average with the sixth overall pick on Draft Day.
Just how incredible was he? In the Saints 14 games (including playoffs) after trading Adrian Peterson, Kamara averaged 5.6 yards per rush, 11.4 yards per catch, 104.4 total yards per game and nearly one touchdown per game. He did this on per-game averages of 9.0 carries and 4.7 receptions. Eleven of those 14 games yielded 10-plus Fantasy points, and on three occasions he notched at least 24 (!!) Fantasy points. That's in non-PPR, FYI.
What does that mean?
It means Kamara was a unicorn. Consistent production like this on touches like that in Fantasy are almost never seen.
Which is why counting on him to keep up these kind of fireworks seems ... insane. But that's exactly what folks are banking on given his current ADP.
There's a well-established pattern of behavior among Fantasy running backs: Those who rack up the most touches end up being the most reliable. It makes sense -- the more opportunities a back has, the more likely he will create yardage and touchdowns. Of the top-12 running backs in non-PPR last year, 10 had at least 268 touches (nine in PPR). Kamara had the fewest in non-PPR and third-fewest in PPR with 201.
You might think that Kamara is locked into more touches in 2018 after his breakout rookie campaign, especially in the first four weeks with fellow stud rusher Mark Ingram suspended. But Saints coach Sean Payton has different ideas.
"I like the vision that we have for Alvin. He's an exceptionally smart player and he's versatile," Saints coach Sean Payton told SiriusXM NFL Radio in mid-August. "He's probably is a better runner than we even anticipated, but do I think it's necessary to find who's going to complement him, who's going to be able to do some of the things that Mark did. You're not going to be able to find an exact replacement, but that's what we're out here practicing on right now and we've got a number of candidates.
"I don't anticipate all of a sudden Alvin getting 28 carries, 30 carries. He's going to get touches, and a lot of them, but I think it's important that we find those other players that have a chance to compete to help us during that month."
On one hand, you've got to credit Payton and the Saints for thinking about the big picture. On the other, do you really think Payton's going to pull Kamara off the field when the Saints are in a close game and need a touchdown in the fourth quarter? Definitely not going to happen in those first four games.
That's why it's OK to assume Kamara will see an increase in touches, particularly in the first four Ingram-less weeks of the season. The matchups against the Buccaneers, Browns, Falcons and Giants seem juicy. No one should rule out an average of 17 touches per game. Then once Ingram comes back, that average will probably trickle down to 15 touches per game.
If those averages come to fruition, which would inherently mean Kamara staying on the field for 16 games, he'd finish with 248 touches, potentially 81 catches (5.1 per game) and 167 carries (10.2 per game).
The fear is that even at that projection, Kamara doesn't match his mind-boggling rushing and receiving averages. Four yards per carry for a back is considered good. Five yards per carry is considered rare. SIX yards per carry?! That doesn't happen often, much less consistenly. That number is going to shrink, as should his receiving average.
So the smart train of thought is to expect less -- but not too much less -- from Kamara. If he gets you 4.6 yards per carry (which is really good) and 8.5 yards per catch (also really good), he'll tally 768 rush yards and 689 receiving yards for a 1,457-yard finish. It's about 100 yards less than what he did as a rookie.
The larger regression will show up in his touchdown total. Since Kamara is more of the explosive, big-play type and not the physical, goal-line hogging type, his scoring frequency is bound to fluctuate. Of his 14 scores last season, 11 came from inside the 20 but only two from inside the 5. In fact, Kamara had just five touches from 5 yards or closer all season. By comparison, Ingram had 18.
Until we can fully trust Kamara to be a consistent gamebreaker, it's difficult to pin double-digit touchdowns on him. If he gives you eight, you should be happy.
So if we're working on the assumption Kamara will get 1,457 total yards and eight touchdowns, is he first-round worthy? Those numbers would have put him at RB8 in 2017 and roughly RB11 in 2016. No one's going to turn that away.
However, it's a projection that's counting on Kamara not taking a step back and not missing any playing time. Kamara's collegiate career saw him miss time because of knee injuries, but there wasn't any sign of him being brittle during his rookie year.
This is a nitpick, but nitpicks matter when it comes to the first round of Fantasy drafts. Kamara's upside decidedly puts him in the top-12 among Fantasy running backs, but not the top six. That would mean his current Draft Average is slightly inflated. Bigger backs with potential for more touches and more goal-line usage like Saquon Barkley, Kareem Hunt and even Leonard Fournette and Melvin Gordon project a safer outlook. If Kamara lasts past those guys and you have the chance to get him, do it.
"As an offensive player, you're greedy, you want everything!" Kamara told SiriusXM NFL Radio. "But at the same time, I understand how our offense works. Drew Brees is the best quarterback in the league, we've got receiving threats, we've got other runners that can get the job done. I'm going to try not to be so hard on myself to be like 'I need to take all the load since Mark isn't here.' Just play my role and we'll get it done."
Even Kamara realizes what's best for him is best for the team. Once Fantasy owners open their minds and realize it, they'll draft him smarter.
So what sleepers should you snatch in your Fantasy Football draft? And which huge running backs do you need to jump all over? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Alvin Kamara's huge breakout last season and find out.
