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I'm pleased to see waiting on quarterbacks has become more of an industry norm. Believe me, it was frustrating to be saying that everyone should wait on the position and then look at ADP to see three quarterbacks in the first round. So I'm glad the message has been received. Unfortunately, it's led to another message I'm not quite as fond of:

"In Fantasy football, quarterback doesn't matter."

Sure, it's true you can stream quarterbacks in most leagues and get top-12 production for the year. So in that regard, I get it. But quarterback certainly matters. And quarterback production relative to draft position definitely matters. We're not just going to turn quarterbacks into kickers, right. 

With that in mind, I didn't just want this to turn into an over-drafted/under-drafted piece. (If it was, DeShaun Watson as the No. 2 quarterback off the board and Alex Smith as the 20th would definitely qualify.) So I'm giving you one under-drafted quarterback as a sleeper and then an end-of-draft combo that people are legitimately sleeping on. Plus, I'm giving you one controversial bust, and a breakout who shouldn't be at all. 

And they definitely matter.

Sleeper

Philip Rivers
IND • QB • #17
CMP%62.6
YDs4515
TD28
INT10
YD/Att7.85
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Each of the past five years Philip Rivers has had an ADP outside of the top-10 quarterbacks. Each of the past five years Rivers has outperformed his ADP, topping 4,200 yards and throwing at least 29 touchdown passes each year. He's currently the 16th quarterback by ADP on FantasyPros.com so it looks like that streak will continue. It's a remarkable stretch of consistency and I can't see any reason it would stop now. 

Even with the loss of Hunter Henry, Rivers has a quality stable of weapons led by Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon. His volume seems secure, with at least 570 pass attempts for four straight years. The defenses in the AFC West aren't markedly improved, and the Chiefs may actually be worse. His schedule outside the division does include the Rams, but it also includes the Browns, Titans and Bengals.

If you've fully embraced the late-round quarterback movement, Rivers should be your man. He's available at the end of the most drafts and he's extremely safe while still possessing the weapons and volume to give him upside. 

Tyrod Taylor
NYJ • QB • #2
CMP%62.6
YDs2799
TD14
INT4
YD/Att6.66
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Jameis Winston
CLE • QB • #2
CMP%63.8
YDs3504
TD19
INT11
YD/Att7.93
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If you're looking for a combination at the end of the draft that gives you security and upside I love combining Tyrod Taylor and Jameis Winston. Taylor looks secure as the starter of the Browns for the first month of the season (at least), and Winston has huge upside once he returns from his three-week suspension. But let's start with Taylor.

Taylor has consistently been a low-end No. 1 quarterback on a per-game basis largely because of his rushing production. In Cleveland he has a true No. 1 receiver (Josh Gordon), a pair of excellent safety valves (Jarvis Landry and Duke Johnson) and an emerging tight end (David Njoku). And I haven't mentioned maybe the most important factor: offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Everything is there for Taylor to be a solid Fantasy quarterback, at least until Baker Mayfield is deemed ready.

Winston's upside actually blossomed last year, but was hidden by injuries. If you extrapolate from the games Winston started and finished, he was on pace for nearly 5,000 yards. Winston has even better weapons than Taylor and should have more passing volume once he returns.

At the least, Taylor should be a bridge to Winston and you should get low-end No. 1 production throughout the year. But this pairing has big upside and both quarterbacks are available for almost nothing. 

Breakout

Patrick Mahomes
KC • QB • #15
CMP%62.9
YDs284
TD0
INT1
YD/Att8.11
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I don't imagine I need to do much convincing when it comes to Patrick Mahomes as a breakout. Everyone seems to see it, including Travis Kelce and the Chiefs

Mahomes only played one game in 2017 (with the backups) but he acquitted himself well in that outing and flashed his big arm in the preseason as well. This is a former first-round pick who threw for 5,052 yards and 41 touchdowns at Texas Tech in 2016. You may have already known that. What you may not have known is that he also ran for 22 touchdowns in his final two seasons in college. Mahomes has the athleticism to escape the pocket and the ability to make any throw.

In 2018 he'll be surrounded by arguably the most explosive cast in the NFL. It's a group that helped Alex Smith be a top-5 quarterback in 2017 (and that was before they added Sammy Watkins). So just how high could the upside be? You shouldn't expect a breakout like Carson Wentz had last year, but you shouldn't rule it out either. With the depth that's available at the quarterback position I don't mind reaching on Mahomes upside in the middle rounds, because it could be spectacular.

Speaking of Wentz...

Bust

Carson Wentz
LAR • QB
CMP%60.2
YDs3296
TD33
INT7
YD/Att7.49
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Okay, this one might need a bit more explaining. Let's start with the obvious. The current No. 5 quarterback by ADP has not yet been cleared for Week 1. Doug Pederson has spoken optimistically about Wentz, but he's also been clear they won't rush him. And why would they? They still have the reigning Super Bowl MVP on their roster. Once Wentz is back it will be interesting to see how his approach changes following his knee injury. I would expect he'll be more cautious when running the ball, which is notable since he gained 299 yards on the ground in 13 games. 

But if I'm being honest, I'm using this injury as cover. I'd call him him a bust if he was 100 percent healthy right now.

Wentz was phenomenal in 2017 but his Fantasy production will not repeat itself. His 7.5 TD percentage was outlandish and wholly unsustainable, just ask 2016 Matt Ryan. His efficiency (7.5 Y/A) was very good, but not outlandish. His pass volume was middling compared to most of the top quarterbacks. 

What ADP is telling me, is that many of you are expecting Wentz to play 16 games, keep running, see a small uptick in pass volume, and be even better than he was last year. Because he must be with the touchdown regression that is coming. I'll finish by quantifying what that regression looks like:

  • Had Wentz posted a 6.4 percent touchdown rate (Aaron Rodgers career rate, the best active mark in football) last year, he would have thrown five fewer touchdowns. 
  • Had Wentz posted a 5.5 percent rate (Tom Brady's career mark) he would have thrown nine fewer touchdowns last year and finished with 24 on the year.

Finally, let's take a look at Ryan. Ryan is an easy comp because he had a 7.1 percent season in 2016. His career mark is 4.6 percent. Wentz's career mark is currently 4.7 percent. If you give him that for next year, over 16 games and 550 attempts, he throws 26 touchdowns. 

Please stop drafting him as a top five quarterback.