2019 Fantasy Football Best Ball ADP: August data shows Damien Williams has room to fall, Justin Jackson room to rise
Heath Cummings says recent ADP for Best Ball shows drafters who to target and avoid.
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We're almost halfway through August and Best Ball drafts are peaking. Soon we'll have to stop doing the slow drafts because there isn't enough time before the season.
My favorite part of this is I can look at ADP for the past 12 days, and it actually means something because there are so many drafts going on. That helps us gauge how drafters are reacting to Melvin Gordon's holdout and Damien Williams' hamstring.
With that said, here are my favorite buys on DRAFT and BestBall10s. I've also included eight players I'm avoiding at their cost.
DRAFT Best Buys
A.J. Green WR
CIN Cincinnati • #18
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Yes, Green is probably going to miss Week 1. He might even miss Week 2 and Week 3 as well. But you're going to draft six or seven receivers, and those are the easiest weeks to cover. And when those weeks are over you're getting a borderline No. 1 receiver in the fifth round. Green has averaged nearly 80 yards per game over the past three seasons and scored every other week. You can easily manage the time without him and your team's upside goes through the roof with this pick. I'd be OK with him in the late fourth round.
TB Tampa Bay • #3
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.
I've been hyping Winston up since last summer, so one brilliant preseason drive surely isn't going to change that. The new system in Tampa Bay looks designed to get the ball out of Winston's hands quickly, and he looked very comfortable with it. Tampa Bay has a terrible defense, almost no running game and immense talent in their pass catchers. It's the perfect situation for a breakout quarterback and huge weekly upside.
Jordan Reed TE
WAS Washington • #86
Age: 29 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Reed is completely healthy for the first time in forever and has little competition as the No. 1 target in Washington. He has top-five upside for as long as he stays healthy. While you should draft three tight ends if you take Reed, that's made much easier by how cheap he is. I love pairing him with Austin Hooper and one of the young guys with upside.
John Brown WR
BUF Buffalo • #15
Age: 29 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Is John Brown's ADP broken? How is a team's No. 1 receiver available in the 12th round? Brown's skills mesh very well with Josh Allen's big arm, and everyone who has visited Buffalo during camp has raved about their connection. The last time Brown saw 100 targets he topped 1,000 yards and finished as a top-25 receiver in Fantasy.
Matt Breida RB
SF San Francisco • #22
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
With Jerick McKinnon possibly starting the year on IR, this San Francisco situation is looking a lot like the one we've seen recently in Atlanta. Breida will chop up work with Tevin Coleman, and both will have a shot to finish as top-25 running backs. We've seen Coleman's ADP start to react accordingly on some sites but Breida is still way too cheap.
DRAFT Bad Buys
KC Kansas City • #26
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
The good news is that Williams is back at practice and running with the first team. The bad news is that Darwin Thompson flashed in the first preseason game and Andy Reid is now talking about RBBC. While it's probably foolish to make too much out of coachspeak, it was coachspeak that got us excited about the prospect of Williams as a feature back in the first place. The upside is too high to let Williams fall past the start of the fourth round, but the risk is too high to take him at the end of the second.
TEN Tennessee • #22
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Henry isn't practicing, isn't involved in the passing game, and was mostly terrible until the last four games in 2018. Dion Lewis is still in Tennessee and still the most likely back to be on the field when the Titans are chasing points. They play 10 games against elite offenses in 2019, and may be chasing points more often than they did last year. Henry is a fifth-round pick in any format that counts catches.
CHI Chicago • #32
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie
I have a feeling Montgomery's ADP may be on the rise after his first preseason game. And I do think he's a very talented back, but I'm really worried about the touches. Tarik Cohen is going to touch the ball 10-12 times per game and the Bears are sure acting like there is some role for Mike Davis in this offense. If those two combine for 250 touches, it's really hard to see how Montgomery justifies this ADP.
LAC L.A. Chargers • #81
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
This is a tough one. It's easy to see the breakout potential. Williams was one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL last year, and now Tyrell Williams is gone. The problem is that Hunter Henry is back, and as long as he's healthy, I can't find 100 targets for Mike Williams. There's very little chance Williams repeats his touchdown rate from last year, so he needs a massive spike in targets to be a startable receiver.
BestBall 10s Best Buys
Evan Engram TE
NYG N.Y. Giants • #88
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
The excitement around O.J. Howard and Hunter Henry is understandable, until it starts pushing Evan Engram's ADP down. Engram has a legitimate chance to be the No. 1 option in the passing game for the Giants and break out in his third year. He averaged 9.0 yards per target in 2018, so an increase to over 100 targets could absolutely put him in the 1,000 yard discussion. Engram doesn't deserve to be drafted with the big three just yet, but he may be there by the end of the year.
SF San Francisco • #26
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
As we talked about with Breida, the opportunity in San Francisco is looking a lot better than it did a month ago. Coleman has been a top-24 back each of the past three years and almost all of that was in a committee in Atlanta. I'd expect an small increase in his workload as he splits with Matt Breida, and I'd expect Coleman to lead 49ers backs in targets. He's shown great efficiency in the passing game in the past and has the upside to return early third-round value.
OAK Oakland • #16
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
There are 361 targets available in Oakland, so even if Antonio Brown plays 16 games there are plenty of targets for Williams. He's only seen 100 targets once in his career and he was a solid No. 2 receiver in Fantasy that season. Williams has been a very efficient receiver throughout his career, averaging 9.8 yards per target since he entered the league. The real upside comes if Brown disappears for a few games. Williams would legitimately have top-12 upside with no Brown.
BAL Baltimore • #8
Age: 22 • Experience: 2 yrs.
We have all the reason in the world to believe Jackson could improve as a passer just as Carson Wentz, Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky did in their second years. The difference is that if Jackson becomes even an average passer, he's a top-five Fantasy quarterback because of what he's expected to do on the ground. I have Jackson projected for just 3,300 passing yards and 21 touchdowns that season, and that gets him into the top-12 Fantasy quarterbacks. The upside is much, much higher.
LAC L.A. Chargers • #22
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
It's strange because we've seen Austin Ekeler's ADP skyrocket and we've seen Melvin Gordon's drop. But Justin Jackson is still available in the 12th round of most drafts. if Gordon misses time, this will be a committee between Ekeler and Jackson, and I'd expect Jackson to get a majority of the short-yardage work. Both running backs would be startable with incredible weekly upside. Jackson is well worth a pick in the ninth or 10th round.
BestBall 10s Bad Buys
OAK Oakland • #84
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.
Yes, I know Brown's feet are healing and he's searching for a solution to the helmet issue. I hope both get sorted out quickly. But all this drama has highlighted the potential for problems in Oakland. This is a bad team with a terrible defense, and a questionable offensive line and quarterback. Brown has missed valuable time building rapport with Derek Carr and was already in the worst situation of his career. I'm OK risking a late third on this working out, but not one of my first two picks.
Sony Michel RB
NE New England • #26
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs.
There is certainly weekly upside with Michel, but the combination of injury risk, lack of involvement in the passing game and Bill Belichick make him a pass for me at the start of the fifth round.
CLE Cleveland • #80
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Landry has historically been a high-volume receiver who was best in PPR. That changed in the second half of last year when his target rate dipped to a career low. It's hard to imagine that rate bouncing back with Odell Beckham on the other side of the field. Landry is still good at what he does and he helps the Browns, but he won't help you win your Best Ball league at this ADP.
Eric Ebron TE
IND Indianapolis • #85
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Ebron was on a sub-70 target pace in games Jack Doyle played last year plus the team added Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell in the offseason. I'd cut Ebron's touchdowns in half even if I expected him to get the same number of targets, and I don't. I'd rather have Reed at the same cost, and I'd certainly rather have Reed at a five-round discount.
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