So, this has been a fun start to training camp, right?
Three potential first-round picks are holding out because of their contracts: Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon and Michael Thomas. Julian Edelman and Sterling Shepard are both out for several weeks with thumb injuries. And Julio Jones (foot), Sony Michel (knee) and Calvin Ridley (hamstring) are either on the PUP list or hurt.
And this is only week one of camp. But what has the impact been on the Average Draft Position on CBS Sports for these players? Let's take a look in our weekly ADP review.
- Gordon's holdout appears likely to be lengthy, and it's going to impact his ADP. More on that below, but Gordon's absence is going to benefit the backup running backs for the Chargers in Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson.
- Elliott and Thomas will likely have their contract situations resolved sooner rather than later. If Elliott doesn't report by Aug. 6, he will not be credited with an accrued season, delaying his entry into free agency by a year.
- Until we get to Aug. 6, I'm not going to move Elliott in my rankings. And I don't expect his ADP to change until then, which means he should remain the No. 2 overall pick in most leagues.
- The Saints and Thomas appear close on a contract extension, so expect an announcement to happen in the coming days. Should this linger for another week or two, then it would be cause for concern. As of now, Thomas is a steal in Round 2 at No. 16 overall.
- Edelman's ADP puts him as the No. 47 overall player, and he's expected to be fine for Week 1. If he falls on Draft Day past Round 4 consider that a steal.
- Shepard's ADP is the No. 100 overall player, which was low before his injury. Now, he might stay in that range since he could miss Week 1. Golden Tate, the No. 109 overall player, would be the obvious beneficiary with Shepard out but he's facing a four-game suspension.
- As for Jones, his ADP is a little low at No. 12 overall, but maybe the injury has something to do with that. Ridley's ADP is also slightly low as the No. 64 overall player, but both of those guys are expected to be fine for Week 1.
- I'm concerned about Michel given his knee problems in the past, and the Patriots also added rookie Damien Harris as competition. Michel's ADP is the No. 50 overall player, which is too soon. I'd much rather wait for James White at No. 60 overall or Harris at No. 121 overall, which is ridiculous value.
For the rest of this ADP review, I'm looking at players whose value I expect to rise in the coming weeks, as well as players I expect to fall. And we'll see what other injuries impact the ADP, although hopefully there won't be too many of them for the high-profile players.
By Position
ADP Risers and Fallers
Quarterbacks
Will Rise
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I have Winston ranked as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback this season, but his ADP here puts him as the No. 17 quarterback off the board. If it stayed that way, I would be thrilled to get Winston with a late-round pick. But I expect Winston to generate some hype with Bruce Arians now calling plays. Winston's ADP should definitely rise once the preseason games start.
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Will Fall
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Roethlisberger checks in as the No. 9 quarterback off the board based on his ADP, but I don't consider him a top-10 Fantasy passer coming into the season without Antonio Brown. While the group of James Washington, Donte Moncrief and Diontae Johnson will help JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner pick up the slack with Brown gone, I anticipate Roethlisberger having a dip in his production. I'd rather draft Winston than Roethlisberger this season.
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ADP Risers and Fallers
Running Backs
Will Rise
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Chris Carson got good news when he was cleared for the start of training camp after having minor knee surgery this offseason. And he should be considered the No. 1 running back for Seattle coming into this year. But Penny might be 1A, and he should have a bigger role than his rookie campaign. I expect Penny to stand out in the preseason since he's in better shape compared to last year and should have a better understanding of the offense. He's one of my favorite breakout candidates for 2019.
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For now, Barber is the lead running back in Tampa Bay, and we'll see if he can hold off Ronald Jones and potentially Bruce Anderson for the starting job. He wasn't great in that role last year, finishing with 963 total yards and six total touchdowns on 3.7 yards per carry and 20 receptions, but the hope would be he improves under Bruce Arians. Barber is far from a sexy pick, but he should be serviceable as a potential flex option this season if he remains the starter for the Buccaneers.
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Foreman is just ridiculous value in Round 12 if he stays in this range. Reports out of Houston indicate he's finally healthy after the Achilles injury he suffered in 2017, and we'll see if he can push Lamar Miller for the starting job. You should still plan to draft Miller first in all formats, but Foreman should see his ADP rise with a strong preseason.
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Will Fall
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The latest report about Gordon from ESPN suggests a lengthy holdout into the season, and it's hard to justify drafting Gordon in the first three rounds right now. He could fall farther than that as information about his holdout comes out, but there's no way you can draft him in Round 1. And Ekeler (ADP of 92.9 overall) and Jackson (ADP of 169.8) are going to moving up, likely at a meteoric pace.
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You can make a case that Henry deserves to be drafted in Round 3 in non-PPR leagues, but I wouldn't draft him before Round 5 in PPR. He doesn't catch the ball (he had 15 catches for 99 yards on 18 targets last year), and I don't want to be chasing touchdowns this early in the draft. He loses a key offensive lineman in Taylor Lewan (suspension) for the first four games, and I'm nervous about Henry's production matching his expectations after his amazing four-game stretch to close the season last year when he had 87 carries for 585 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and seven touchdowns over that span. That will be hard to replicate.
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If Hunt were playing 16 games, even as the backup to Nick Chubb, then you could justify drafting him in this spot. But he's not going to be on the field until Week 10. And who knows what his role will be then, especially if Chubb is playing well. I have no problem if you want to stash Hunt on your bench, most likely in deeper leagues. But please don't draft him in the first 100 overall picks in any redraft format.
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ADP Risers and Fallers
Wide Receivers
Will Rise
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Lockett was the No. 16 PPR receiver last season when he wasn't the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Seattle because of Doug Baldwin. With Baldwin now retired, Lockett will hopefully see his targets rise from the 71 he had last year, which was incredibly low. I plan to target Lockett in Round 4, and I expect his ADP to skyrocket over the coming weeks.
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Boyd's ADP is somewhat shocking given his production last season as a third-year breakout. He had nine games with at least 11 PPR points, including six outings with at least 21 points. A.J. Green remains the No. 1 receiver for the Bengals, but Boyd is not just an afterthought in this offense. And he should benefit with Zac Taylor now calling plays in Cincinnati. Boyd is at least a Round 5 pick in all leagues.
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Moore enters the season as the No. 1 receiver for the Panthers. And while I'm beyond excited for Curtis Samuel this year (his ADP will also rise from 124.1), there's no way Moore will stay in this spot. As a rookie in 2018, Moore posted five games with double digits in PPR points in his final seven games. There should be a lot of targets headed in Moore's direction, and he's someone I would target in all leagues in Round 5.
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Will Fall
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Landry is fine as a Round 6 pick in PPR (Round 7 in non-PPR), but he's going ahead of some receivers who have a higher ceiling, including Boyd, Moore, Christian Kirk and Dante Pettis. Landry is going to lose targets with the addition of Odell Beckham, and I expect him to have plenty of pedestrian weeks. He's a No. 3 Fantasy receiver at best in 2019, regardless of format.
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Watkins' ADP will continue to slide now that Tyreek Hill won't be suspended. The question becomes where will he land to make him a quality pick on Draft Day. Round 7 seems like the right spot, but like Landry, he's being drafted ahead of Kirk, Pettis, Will Fuller and Dede Westbrook, which I consider a mistake. It would be nice to see Watkins stay healthy, but he hasn't played 16 games since his rookie season in 2014. And with Hill now back as the No. 1 receiver in Kansas City, it's risky to trust Watkins as a starting Fantasy option in 2019.
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Brown is not someone you should draft in the first 100 overall picks, though hopefully his foot injury will be fine before Week 1. The Ravens aren't going to be a dynamic passing offense with Lamar Jackson under center, no matter how much he's expected to improve as a passer in 2019. As a result, even when healthy, Brown won't post outstanding stats in his rookie campaign. I would only draft Brown with a late-round flier in redraft leagues.
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ADP Risers and Fallers
Tight Ends
Will Rise
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The reports on Andrews this offseason have been glowing, and it continued on the first day of training camp for the Ravens. According to the Ravens' official team website, Lamar Jackson "threw a perfect strike to tight end Mark Andrews, who continues to impress. The chemistry between Andrews and Jackson was evident last season and seems to be growing." I like him as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this year, and I expect his ADP to have a potential meteoric rise toward the top 100 overall.
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Will Fall
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I don't mind drafting Ebron as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this season, but not in Round 6. And I don't consider him a top-four Fantasy tight end, especially ahead of Evan Engram, O.J. Howard and Hunter Henry. Ebron has plenty of competition for targets this season with the additions of Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell in Indianapolis, as well as Jack Doyle (hip/kidney) coming back. Ebron is considered a bust if he's being drafted in this range.
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