ADP is a useful tool. We cite it all of the time. But like any stat, it doesn't always mean a lot without context.
A player's average draft position is just that — an average. Drafts have been going on for weeks — months, on some sites — and so that average is going to contain every draft that has gone before, even when a player has seen a significant change.
So, you don't just want to look at ADP. You need to look at trends, too. Last weekend was a big draft weekend, and it was also a big news weekend, with the retirement of Andrew Luck and Lamar Miller's season-ending knee injury fundamentally altering the value of several players.
I went to National Fantasy Championship ADP and sorted results by all drafts before last Saturday, and all drafts since, to find out who has seen their stock rise the most over the last few days.
Five biggest risers
Josh Gordon WR
SEA Seattle • #10
Age: 30 • Experience: 5 yrs.
If you drafted before two weeks ago, Gordon was there for the taking in the late rounds, in what would have proven to be one of the steals of the year. Gordon still has star potential, and his ADP in the sixth-round range is still totally fair — he's going around the likes of Robby Anderson, Will Fuller, Dede Westbrook and Sammy Watkins, receivers with similar floors, though I'm not sure they have the same upside as Gordon. He should be the No. 2 target and primary field-stretcher for the Patriots, with the potential to emerge as the team's Rob Gronkowski replacement in the red zone. Don't forget, even after joining the team mid-season, Gordon played at a 1,050-yard pace in his 11 appearances with the Patriots in 2018. Enough of the risk has been priced into him at this point to make this a worthwhile investment.
NO New Orleans • #88
Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Montgomery seems to have pretty much locked up the primary backup role in New York, but he doesn't figure to fade into obscurity when Le'Veon Bell makes his debut to start the regular season. Adam Gase has given every indication he doesn't intend to copy the Steelers' usage of Bell, leaving room for other backs to contribute. Montgomery has shown flashes as a rusher, but he's been at his best working in the passing game — no surprise for the converted wide receiver. It's not clear what kind of role he's looking at when Bell plays, but it doesn't seem like a stretch to say he could get the bulk of the work if Bell misses time. That's not a bad spot to be in, especially since he's still going just in the final few rounds on Draft Day.
Tony Pollard RB
DAL Dallas • #20
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Pollard isn't just moving up because of Ezekiel Elliott's holdout; he's moving up because he's looked electric in the preseason. Pollard has rushed the ball 15 times in three games, racking up 84 yards and a touchdown, while adding three catches for 19 yards. He has seen the majority of the work with the first-team offense in Elliott's absence and, at this point, there's a non-zero chance he's starting in Week 1 against the Giants. He won't have much value if and when Elliott returns beyond as a handcuff, but being a talented handcuff on a team with a run-first approach and a dominant line means you're sticking on someone's roster all season long.
KC Kansas City • #34
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Thompson has actually risen past Pollard, despite a less clear path to immediate playing time. That's because the potential for a full-time role down the road is greater, with seemingly just the relatively unproven Damien Williams ahead of him. Thompson has impressed in his time in the preseason, rushing for 60 yards on 12 carries, while adding three catches for 38 yards and a touchdown. Thompson has been working with the first-team offense in practice, though Williams has seen most of the work in the preseason games when healthy. It seems Thompson is still clearly the No. 2, with Darrel Williams also potentially in the mix, but the upside here is considerable given the value Andy Reid consistently wrings out of running backs. If Williams disappoints or gets hurt — he missed time earlier in camp with a hamstring issue — Thompson could be a top-15 running back for Fantasy.
Duke Johnson RB
HOU Houston • #25
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.
This is one that could fall again this weekend, depending on how the Texans approach the buy-out or late trade market. If the Texans go into the season with their current backfield status quo intact, Johnson figures to be a value even as a sixth-round pick. He showed the ability to be a workhorse in college, as Ben Gretch noted Monday, and would be in an incredible situation, as the leading rusher for what should be a very good offense. However, if they bring in a veteran — Ben speculated on Carlos Hyde — then he becomes more of a situational back, albeit one who should still provide plenty of value thanks to his receiving game work. If Johnson enters the season with a path to 200-plus touches, expect him to be a solid start No. 2 running back.
WAS Washington • #10
Age: 24 • Experience: 5 yrs.
I'm fascinated by Samuel's rise this preseason, because I'm not sure the Fantasy community has learned anything new about him. Sure, he's drawn rave reviews for his performance in practice, but it's not like we've actually been able to see much with our own eyes; Samuel had just three catches for 39 yards in two preseason games. Was this just a needed market correction, or are we falling for preseason hype?
Matt Breida RB
BUF Buffalo • #22
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
In this instance, I think it's an obvious case of a needed market correction. Breida was impressive when healthy last season, but the return of Jerick McKinnon and the signing of Tevin Coleman made his role rather unclear. Now, with McKinnon looking uncertain for the start of the regular season, Breida looks like he'll be at least the No. 2 option here, in an offense that gets the ball in the hands of the running backs often.
LAC L.A. Chargers • #22
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
As Melvin Gordon has slid, Jackson and Austin Ekeler have risen. Ekeler seems like the safer bet to lead the team in touches while Gordon's holdout continues, but with Ekeler jumping up into the Round 6 range, Jackson still looks like a safer buy in the Round 10 range. If he's the goal-line option and gets 10-12 touches per week, it's not out of the question Jackson outproduces Ekeler.
BUF Buffalo • #1
Age: 34 • Experience: 11 year
That Sanders is even on the field at this point after his Achilles tear is incredible, and given that the rest of the receiving corps in Denver is unproven, he looks like a good bet to be the team's top option to open the season. It's still a very open question how effective he can be at 32 coming off this injury, but this feels like a fair cost for the potential to grab a team's No. 1 receiver.
JAC Jacksonville • #12
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Here's another case of what is likely a market correction, as we haven't really seen a ton to change expectations in Jacksonville. Westbrook already led the team in targets in 2018, and an improved passing game led by Nick Foles should lead to a career year. That Westbrook saw plenty of work and scored a touchdown in Preseason Week 3 only helps his case.