2019 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Players to avoid based on Average Draft Position
Jamey Eisenberg uses Average Draft Position data to show you the players he likely won't be drafting in most of his leagues this year.
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4 min read
I love studying Average Draft Position data. It's the basis for most of the decisions I make in regards to Fantasy content during Draft Prep time.
For example, sleepers are determined by the players I like that are being drafted in the later rounds. And busts are the players who are being drafted too soon.
Between our two Fantasy Football magazines and two columns on CBS Sports since April, I have written four versions of busts already, in some capacity. I'm going to write one final version toward the end of the preseason when the ADP is more reflective of most drafts.
Here, since we're talking about busts at the start of training camp, I wanted to take a slightly different approach to the topic. In using the PPR ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator, I wanted to touch on the players I won't draft at their current values.
I went through the first eight rounds and picked out players I don't want if this is where I have to get them. That doesn't mean I would completely avoid them if they fell in any of my leagues, but their value right now is too high.
Let's get started.
Round 1: Le'Veon Bell (1.10) and Melvin Gordon (1.11)
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I'm worried about Bell with his move to the Jets, and I'd rather draft him in Round 2 if he makes it that far. ... I expect Gordon's ADP to fall the longer he holds out from training camp, but there's no way you can draft him in Round 1 right now. That could change if a deal is worked out with the Chargers, but this feels like it could be messy.
Round 2: Todd Gurley (2.05) and Damien Williams (2.08)
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The middle of Round 2 feels too soon for Gurley given the uncertainty with his knee. I would take him toward the end of Round 2, but even that could be risky. ... While I've come around on Williams as a breakout candidate as the starting running back for the Chiefs, I can't pull the trigger on him at No. 21 overall.
Round 3: Adam Thielen (3.02) and Derrick Henry (3.12)
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Thielen was awesome last season, but the Vikings want to run the ball more in 2019, which should impact his production. The earliest I would draft Thielen is the end of Round 3. ... I'm not drafting Henry in PPR until Round 5. He's limited in the passing game, and I don't want to chase touchdowns with a starting running back in Round 3.
Round 4: Phillip Lindsay (4.07) and Andrew Luck (4.12)
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Royce Freeman is expected to take on a bigger role for the Broncos this year, which should impact Lindsay. I'd rather draft him toward the end of Round 4 or beginning of Round 5. ... While I love Luck this season, I'm not drafting a quarterback in Round 4 unless it's Patrick Mahomes. The position is too deep.
Round 5: Sony Michel (5.03), Chris Carson (5.07) and Jarvis Landry (5.09)
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Michel and Carson are similar in that both are dealing with knee injuries from this offseason, and both may lose significant touches to other running backs this year. For Michel, James White is going one pick after him, which is crazy in PPR since White is better. And with Carson, I'd rather wait for Rashaad Penny at the end of Round 6 as the better value pick. ... As for Landry, I'm concerned he's going to lose targets, and production, with Odell Beckham now in Cleveland.
Round 6: Alshon Jeffery (6.05) and Darrell Henderson (6.12)
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The biggest reason why I don't want Jeffery in this spot is the receivers being drafted after him, including Tyler Boyd, Dante Pettis, Robby Anderson and Christian Kirk. All of them have a higher ceiling than Jeffery this season. ... Henderson could be awesome if Gurley misses any time due to injury. But a healthy Gurley would likely be a problem for Henderson, which is why he shouldn't be drafted before Round 7.
Round 7: Eric Ebron (7.02) and Drew Brees (7.08)
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Ebron was exceptional last season in his first year with the Colts, but I'm expecting him to struggle this year. Indianapolis added two weapons in Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell, and Jack Doyle (hip/kidney) should return to health. ... Brees is still worth drafting as a No. 1 quarterback, but he's been under 400 pass attempts in each of the past two years, as well as falling below 4,000 passing yards in 2018. He's no longer among the elite Fantasy quarterbacks.
Round 8: Vance McDonald (8.01), Kareem Hunt (8.04) and Larry Fitzgerald (8.07)
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I like McDonald a lot this season, but he's not someone I would draft in the top 100 overall picks. ... You can't use Hunt until Week 10, and even when his suspension is over, we don't know what his role will be as the backup to Nick Chubb. This is at least three rounds too soon for Hunt. ... Fitzgerald enters the season as the No. 2 Fantasy receiver for the Cardinals behind Kirk, but he could also lose production if rookies Andy Isabella, KeeSean Johnson and Hakeem Butler take on a big role. I wouldn't draft Fitzgerald before Round 10.
