2019 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: QB draft strategy and Tiers 1.0

Positional Tiers 1.0: QB Tiers | RB Tiers | WR Tiers | TE Tiers

We've preached a "wait until it feels like you're stealing" philosophy for drafting a quarterback for about five years. Now everyone knows that Fantasy passers are basically growing on trees. It's time for a change in strategy. 

QB Tiers 1.0

ELITE

EXCELLENT

VERY GOOD

ROUND 5

ROUNDS 6, 7

ROUNDS 8, 9

Andrew Luck

Deshaun Watson

Cam Newton

Aaron Rodgers

Matt Ryan

Drew Brees

Patrick Mahomes

Baker Mayfield

Russell Wilson



Carson Wentz



Jared Goff



Philip Rivers







LOW-RISK, HIGH REWARD

NEXT QB UP


ROUNDS 10+

LATE-ROUND PICKS


Jameis Winston

Mitchell Trubisky


Kyler Murray

Kirk Cousins


Dak Prescott

Andy Dalton


Tom Brady

Sam Darnold


Josh Allen

Derek Carr


Jimmy Garoppolo

Lamar Jackson


Ben Roethlisberger



In traditional leagues where you start one quarterback, most people will take a value-minded approach. Some might chase Patrick Mahomes hoping to capture even 80 percent of the stats he put up in 2018. Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers will be their "backup plan" if they miss on Mahomes.

And then there'll be a handful of folks who will try to unearth the next Mahomes — someone in the late rounds who pays off huge. Those people will probably pick up two quarterbacks on Draft Day, which in and of itself is a luxury decision and not a necessity for everyone. You will always find a bye-week replacement off waivers.

Reaching for any quarterback is a big no-no. Mahomes in Round 1? Rodgers in Round 2? I know their names and numbers are pretty to look at, but taking an unnecessary risk with your team only helps your opponents. You can win with other signal-callers.

Everyone knows how deep the position is. Everyone's going to get a good quarterback. Your goal is to get a great quarterback. And you're not just going to steal one — you're going to pull off the biggest heist in the history of your league!

The recommended plan is to target one of the quarterbacks from the first three tiers, but only with a pick that screams value. You're getting the best of both worlds this way: a value pick to help strengthen your lineup and a player with the potential to finish in the top-5 at his position.

And what happens if you don't pull off the heist of the century? No big whoop, just revert back to the O.G. plan of waiting for a quarterback steal. It'll be fine, your quarterback just won't carry quite the same upside. One passer to earmark with a late pick is rookie Kyler Murray, who has some of that "next Mahomes" appeal. Draft him as one of your two late-round quarterbacks.

Obviously your strategy changes if you can/must start two quarterbacks. There's more pressure to draft two good starters, but it's not so overwhelming that two of your first three picks have to go that way. It's a safe bet that most of your rivals will gravitate toward hoarding quarterbacks when the other positions begin thinning out. That might happen around 45th overall in non-PPR leagues and 55th overall in PPR leagues. Plan accordingly. Additionally, make it a point to get three good quarterbacks — you'll need a third arm for bye weeks, injury replacements and trade bait. 

Senior Fantasy Writer

Dave Richard has spent nearly his entire career covering the National Football League. Beginning with NFL.com at the boom of the Internet, Richard was that site's first Fantasy Football writer before transitioning... Full Bio

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