Welcome to our third 'Undercover Mock' reveal, where our analysts surreptitiously go into mock drafts to draft with real people. Unlike our expert mock drafts, you won't see quarterbacks falling to crazy rounds here. We're trying to show you how to find real advantages drafting with real people.
Anyone who has played Fantasy Football would say Todd Gurley has been the definition of a stud for most of his career. Not everyone who will draft a Fantasy Football team this summer believes he'll remain a stud.
Count me among those skeptical of Gurley finishing as a top five or even top 10 Fantasy running back. We learned a lot about his arthritic knee during the offseason and saw the Rams retain backup rusher Malcolm Brown while adding another via the draft in Darrell Henderson. If the Rams are focused on keeping Gurley on the 22.5 touch-per-game pace he was on last year, they sure have a funny way of showing it.
But this is Undercover Mock, where I became an unrecognizable face in a mock draft with random people to get an idea of how your real drafts might shake out. It's the perfect playground to lay out blueprints for how to attack a draft if you have to have a specific player. So for this one, I forgot about my rankings and convictions and became Todd Gurley's No. 1 fan.
This mock was done late Sunday, just before kickoff of the Seahawks-Vikings preseason game. It's a 12-team non-PPR league with four-point passing touchdowns. I had pick No. 10, which left me with an interesting predicament: If I took James Conner first, that would mean one fewer rusher available to the drafters at Picks 11 and 12. The odds of them taking Gurley would rise quite a bit. So I decided to leave Conner in the talent pool and lock up a stud tight end instead in Travis Kelce.
Conner indeed pushed the running back talent down the board -- he was taken before I was up in Round 2, and Gurley was available. That was the pick. I think if a drafter truly targeted Gurley in Round 2, he or she shouldn't take a running back in Round 1 unless a slew of receivers went first. That's not likely.
I watched as receivers flew off the board. Nine went between my second- and third-round picks. Frankly, I felt good taking Brandin Cooks in Round 3, but with George Kittle still there for the taking, I wished I hadn't taken Kelce earlier. The drafting of Kittle and Zach Ertz has proven to be pretty volatile from draft to draft, so it's hard to predict where they'll land. I'd sign up for Kittle in late Round 3 all day long if I knew he'd consistently be there. This is the latest he'd gone through three Undercover Mock drafts (2.10 and 3.05).
OK, so probably not the most optimal start, but Chris Carson falling to me in early Round 4 made the sting go away. That's incredible value, even if it puts my receivers at a little disadvantage.
So with Gurley, Carson, Cooks and Kelce in my lineup, my queue entering my late Round 5 pick looked like this:
- Tevin Coleman, RB, SF
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL
- Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
- Josh Gordon, WR, NE
- Lamar Miller, RB, HOU
- Miles Sanders, RB, PHI
- Allen Robinson, WR, CHI
Clearly, my receiver need matched up masterfully with the best available players in the draft. I had to pass on Coleman to take Ridley as my No. 2 receiver in Round 5. Then I got lucky in Round 6 and snagged Josh Gordon to be my third receiver. A lot of people are skeptical of what he might do in 2019, but I think there's still 1,000-yard potential there given the look of the Patriots offense. Without Rob Gronkowski for three games last year, both he and Edelman each had nine-plus non-PPR points (12 in PPR). I'm counting on more of that.
Alright, at this point I'm pretty pleased with where my team is headed. Here's the squad:
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC
- Todd Gurley, RB, LAR
- Brandin Cooks, WR, LAR
- Chris Carson, RB, SEA
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL
- Josh Gordon, WR, NE
I knew I had to make a play for Henderson really soon -- despite the hot-and-cold preseason, he figures to see a little bit of work each week with Gurley and a lot of work if Gurley misses any playing time. Taking him in Round 7 was the responsible thing to do ... but I had a good reason to do otherwise.
Why was Tevin Coleman still on the board?! Was I drafting with angry Falcons fans? Could I really have been drafting with people who didn't recognize his potential? And surely there's more upside in Coleman than Henderson. Plus, I couldn't help but notice that the team at Pick 11 already had three running backs and the team at Pick 12 had two. There was a really good chance I could swipe Coleman in Round 7 and pick up Henderson in early Round 8.
This was a no-brainer. I chose Coleman.
And then I watched in horror as Pick 12 took Henderson.
Alright, fine, it wasn't horror. It was ... mild shock? Point is, I wasn't freaking out because I didn't get the hot Rams rookie to handcuff to Gurley. It would have been nice, but I would rather have Coleman ready to go in case Gurley can't play than Henderson. I followed that pick up with preseason darling Curtis Samuel in Round 8. I wouldn't have drafted him if Henderson had made it back to me, obviously, but he's a delightful consolation prize.
At this point, people bailed on the mock draft (if you've ever mocked, it's happened to you) and a bunch of DSTs and kickers were chosen for them by the software. I'll still post the results and my full team, but I don't think there's a whole lot to learn from it.
Here's the final roster:
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC
- Todd Gurley, RB, LAR
- Brandin Cooks, WR, LAR
- Chris Carson, RB, SEA
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL
- Josh Gordon, WR, NE
- Tevin Coleman, RB, SF
- Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR
- Latavius Murray, RB, NO
- Will Fuller, WR, HOU
- Justin Jackson, RB, LAC
- Jameis Winston, QB, TB
- Devin Singletary, RB, BUF
- Patriots DST
- Jake Elliott, K, PHI
I'm still kicking myself for taking Kelce in Round 1 because Kittle was there in Round 3. Had I passed on Kelce, I would have had Odell Beckham and Kittle instead of Kelce and Cooks. Of course, if Kittle had gone ahead of me in Round 3, I wouldn't have felt this way, so I shouldn't feel too bad about things.
I'm happy with the roster and see it as competitive in a non-PPR league, but as is the case with every second-round pick, so much rides on Gurley. If he's struggling like he did in the playoffs and not getting the kind of playing time we've been used to seeing, he's going to hurt the team. If he's his old self, I'm headed for the playoffs. If he's in-between, he'll probably be fine but not worthy of a top-20 pick.
Lessons learned
You've got to go into your draft knowing how you feel about Gurley. Most people are either all in or all out on him. If you looked over this team and thought it was awesome, you're probably in the pro-Gurley camp. If you think this team carries too much risk, you might choose someone other than Gurley in Round 2. This exercise did not convince me to take him in my real drafts.
Drafting Gurley does not mean having to force-draft Henderson, but it does mean having to protect your running back depth in case Gurley misses time. I accomplished this by taking Coleman in Round 7 (which was a minor miracle) and ultimately spending three of my first seven choices on running backs. It would have been four of my first eight had Henderson made it back to me.
Another position you have to know how you feel about before drafting is tight end. If the thought of spending a first-round pick on Kelce disgusts you, you're probably not going to feel much better about taking Kittle or Ertz in Round 2 (or even Round 3). Just remember: these tight ends come at a premium because they're expected to produce like top-15 receivers and potentially deliver twice as many Fantasy points as sputtering tight ends you'll draft late. I prefer this advantage and am willing to give up a little at receiver or running back by taking one.
Speaking of receivers, you should spend some time getting familiar with their ADP. We're seeing a rapid drop in tier quality from the first batch of eight receivers to the rest. Had I not taken Gurley in Round 2, I would have been motivated to select Beckham or JuJu Smith-Schuster instead just to have one of the elite tier wideouts. For years I've been all about running backs, but this drop-off at receiver is alarming, and I want to get one of the top-shelf guys if I can.
Other interesting picks (through Round 7)
- 1.06 David Johnson, RB, ARI
- 1.07 Le'Veon Bell, RB, NYJ
- 1.12 Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
- 2.06 Melvin Gordon, RB, LAC
- 2.07 JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT (wow!)
- 2.11 Antonio Brown, WR, OAK
- 3.03 Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU
- 5.02 James White, RB, NE (in a non-PPR, yikes)
- 5.04 A.J. Green, WR, CIN
- 5.11 Mike Williams, WR, LAC
- 6.06 Andrew Luck, QB, IND
- 6.08 Eric Ebron, TE, IND (way too soon!)
- 6.11 Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB (way too late!)
- 7.02 Vance McDonald, TE, PIT (stunningly early)
- 7.07 David Njoku (way too soon!)
Full Undercover Mock results
Round 1 | |
1 | TEAM 1: Saquon Barkley |
2 | TEAM 2: Ezekiel Elliott |
3 | TEAM 3: Alvin Kamara |
4 | TEAM 4: Christian McCaffrey |
5 | TEAM 5: DeAndre Hopkins |
6 | TEAM 6: Davante Adams |
7 | TEAM 7: David Johnson |
8 | TEAM 8: Le'Veon Bell |
9 | TEAM 9: Julio Jones |
10 | DAVE: Travis Kelce |
11 | TEAM 11: Michael Thomas |
12 | TEAM 12: Patrick Mahomes |
Round 2 | |
13 | TEAM 12: Tyreek Hill |
14 | TEAM 11: James Conner |
15 | DAVE: Todd Gurley |
16 | TEAM 9: Odell Beckham |
17 | TEAM 8: Joe Mixon |
18 | TEAM 7: Mike Evans |
19 | TEAM 6: Melvin Gordon |
20 | TEAM 5: JuJu Smith-Schuster |
21 | TEAM 4: Nick Chubb |
22 | TEAM 3: Dalvin Cook |
23 | TEAM 2: Antonio Brown |
24 | TEAM 1: T.Y. Hilton |
Round 3 | |
13 | TEAM 1: Keenan Allen |
14 | TEAM 2: Adam Thielen |
15 | TEAM 3: Deshaun Watson |
16 | TEAM 4: Zach Ertz |
17 | TEAM 5: Leonard Fournette |
18 | TEAM 6: Amari Cooper |
19 | TEAM 7: Kerryon Johnson |
20 | TEAM 8: Stefon Diggs |
21 | TEAM 9: Devonta Freeman |
22 | DAVE: Brandin Cooks |
23 | TEAM 11: Damien Williams |
24 | TEAM 12 George Kittle |
Round 4 | |
25 | TEAM 12: Julian Edelman |
26 | TEAM 11: Marlon Mack |
27 | DAVE: Chris Carson |
28 | TEAM 9: Aaron Jones |
29 | TEAM 8: Robert Woods |
30 | TEAM 7: Josh Jacobs |
31 | TEAM 6: Kenny Golladay |
32 | TEAM 5: Derrick Henry |
33 | TEAM 4: Phillip Lindsay |
34 | TEAM 3: Chris Godwin |
35 | TEAM 2: Mark Ingram |
36 | TEAM 1 Tyler Lockett |
Round 5 | |
37 | TEAM 1: Sony Michel |
38 | TEAM 2: James White |
39 | TEAM 3: David Montgomery |
40 | TEAM 4: A.J. Green |
41 | TEAM 5: Tyler Boyd |
42 | TEAM 6: Evan Engram |
43 | TEAM 7: Cooper Kupp |
44 | TEAM 8: Tarik Cohen |
45 | TEAM 9: D.J. Moore |
46 | DAVE: Calvin Ridley |
47 | TEAM 11: Mike Williams |
48 | TEAM 12 Lamar Miller |
Round 6 | |
49 | TEAM 12: Miles Sanders |
50 | TEAM 11: O.J. Howard |
51 | DAVE: Josh Gordon |
52 | TEAM 9: Hunter Henry |
53 | TEAM 8: Jarvis Landry |
54 | TEAM 7: Andrew Luck |
55 | TEAM 6: Kenyan Drake |
56 | TEAM 5: Eric Ebron |
57 | TEAM 4: Allen Robinson |
58 | TEAM 3: Sammy Watkins |
59 | TEAM 2: Aaron Rodgers |
60 | TEAM 1 Baker Mayfield |
Round 7 | |
61 | TEAM 1: Jared Cook |
62 | TEAM 2: Vance McDonald |
63 | TEAM 3: Alshon Jeffery |
64 | TEAM 4: Russell Wilson |
65 | TEAM 5: Matt Ryan |
66 | TEAM 6: Cam Newton |
67 | TEAM 7: David Njoku |
68 | TEAM 8: Marvin Jones |
69 | TEAM 9: Drew Brees |
70 | DAVE: Tevin Coleman |
71 | TEAM 11: Christian Kirk |
72 | TEAM 12 Darrell Henderson |
Round 8 | |
73 | TEAM 12: Chicago Bears |
74 | TEAM 11: Sterling Shepard |
75 | DAVE: Curtis Samuel |
76 | TEAM 9: Los Angeles Rams |
77 | TEAM 8: Carson Wentz |
78 | TEAM 7: Los Angeles Chargers |
79 | TEAM 6: Baltimore Ravens |
80 | TEAM 5: Jacksonville Jaguars |
81 | TEAM 4: Minnesota Vikings |
82 | TEAM 3: Robby Anderson |
83 | TEAM 2: Houston Texans |
84 | TEAM 1 Greg Zuerlein |
Round 9 | |
85 | TEAM 1: Philadelphia Eagles |
86 | TEAM 2: Wil Lutz |
87 | TEAM 3: Austin Hooper |
88 | TEAM 4: Justin Tucker |
89 | TEAM 5: Harrison Butker |
90 | TEAM 6: Adam Vinatieri |
91 | TEAM 7: Stephen Gostkowski |
92 | TEAM 8: Austin Ekeler |
93 | TEAM 9: Robbie Gould |
94 | DAVE: Latavius Murray |
95 | TEAM 11: Derrius Guice |
96 | TEAM 12 Ka'imi Fairbairn |
Round 10 | |
97 | TEAM 12: Rashaad Penny |
98 | TEAM 11: Jared Goff |
99 | DAVE: Will Fuller |
100 | TEAM 9: Dante Pettis |
101 | TEAM 8: Trey Burton |
102 | TEAM 7: Corey Davis |
103 | TEAM 6: Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
104 | TEAM 5: Royce Freeman |
105 | TEAM 4: N'Keal Harry |
106 | TEAM 3: Jordan Howard |
107 | TEAM 2: Keke Coutee |
108 | TEAM 1 Peyton Barber |
Round 11 | |
109 | TEAM 1: Ronald Jones |
110 | TEAM 2: Geronimo Allison |
111 | TEAM 3: Cleveland Browns |
112 | TEAM 4: Courtland Sutton |
113 | TEAM 5: Larry Fitzgerald |
114 | TEAM 6: Dede Westbrook |
115 | TEAM 7: D.K. Metcalf |
116 | TEAM 8: Philip Rivers |
117 | TEAM 9: Damien Harris |
118 | DAVE: Justin Jackson |
119 | TEAM 11: Kareem Hunt |
120 | TEAM 12 LeSean McCoy |
Round 12 | |
121 | TEAM 12: DeSean Jackson |
122 | TEAM 11: Emmanuel Sanders |
123 | DAVE: Jameis Winston |
124 | TEAM 9: James Washington |
125 | TEAM 8: Mark Andrews |
126 | TEAM 7: Jaylen Samuels |
127 | TEAM 6: Devin Funchess |
128 | TEAM 5: Ito Smith |
129 | TEAM 4: Carlos Hyde |
130 | TEAM 3: Anthony Miller |
131 | TEAM 2: Kyler Murray |
132 | TEAM 1 Ben Roethlisberger |
Round 13 | |
133 | TEAM 1: Delanie Walker |
134 | TEAM 2: Kalen Ballage |
135 | TEAM 3: Mecole Hardman |
136 | TEAM 4: Dak Prescott |
137 | TEAM 5: Matt Breida |
138 | TEAM 6: Lamar Jackson |
139 | TEAM 7: Golden Tate |
140 | TEAM 8: Tyrell Williams |
141 | TEAM 9: Parris Campbell |
142 | DAVE: Devin Singletary |
143 | TEAM 11: Michael Gallup |
144 | TEAM 12 Nyheim Hines |
Round 14 | |
145 | TEAM 12: Jordan Reed |
146 | TEAM 11: Denver Broncos |
147 | DAVE: New England Patriots |
148 | TEAM 9: Kyle Rudolph |
149 | TEAM 8: Dallas Cowboys |
150 | TEAM 7: Josh Allen |
151 | TEAM 6: T.J. Hockenson |
152 | TEAM 5: Kirk Cousins |
153 | TEAM 4: Jerick McKinnon |
154 | TEAM 3: Mitchell Trubisky |
155 | TEAM 2: Adrian Peterson |
156 | TEAM 1 John Brown |
Round 15 | |
157 | TEAM 1: Tre'Quan Smith |
158 | TEAM 2: Noah Fant |
159 | TEAM 3: Matt Prater |
160 | TEAM 4: Dallas Goedert |
161 | TEAM 5: Chris Herndon |
162 | TEAM 6: Dion Lewis |
163 | TEAM 7: Mike Davis |
164 | TEAM 8: Brett Maher |
165 | TEAM 9: Tom Brady |
166 | DAVE: Jake Elliott |
167 | TEAM 11: Mason Crosby |
168 | TEAM 12: DaeSean Hamilton |
So what sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which RB2 can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get 2019 Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Andrew Luck's huge 2018, and find out.