2019 Fantasy Football Team Previews: The Bears are back

In a draft already light on picks, the Bears traded up to nab running back David Montgomery, who they'll pair with Human Joystick Tarik Cohen and free agent acquisition Mike Davis to create a dynamic backfield. Mitchell Trubisky's year two improvements bode well for the future of a balanced passing attack that featured four players with more than 75 targets in 2018.

2018 Review

Record: 12 - 4 (3rd in NFL)
PPG: 26.3 (9)
YPG: 343.9 (21)
Pass YPG: 222.8 (21)
Rush YPG: 121.1 (11)
PAPG: 32 (24)
RAPG: 29.3 (6)

2018 Fantasy finishes

QB: Mitchell Trubisky - QB15
RB: Tarik Cohen - RB12; Jordan Howard* - RB20
WR: Allen Robinson - WR40; Taylor Gabriel - WR41; Anthony Miller - WR60
TE: Trey Burton - TE8
*No longer with team

Number to know: 7.2

That's how many percentage points Mitchell Trubisky's completion percentage increased from his rookie season to his first year playing in Matt Nagy's offense. Trubisky threw interceptions at a slightly higher rate, but improved every other relevant passing statistic, including nearly doubling his touchdown rate and adding nearly a yard per attempt.

2019 Offseason

"He's the whole package. He has the hands. He's a three-down back. He's everything we were looking for." - Matt Nagy, on David Montgomery

Head Coach: Matt Nagy (2nd year)
Offensive Coordinator: Mark Helfrich (2nd year)  

Draft Picks 

3. (73) David Montgomery, RB
4. (126) Riley Ridley, WR
6. (205) Duke Shelley, CB
7. (222) Kerrith Whyte Jr., RB
7. (238) Stephen Denmark, CB

Additions

RB Mike Davis, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Marvin Hall, DB Buster Skrine, DB HaHa Clinton-Dix, K Eddy Pineiro

Key Departures

RB Jordan Howard, RB Benny Cunningham, WR Josh Bellamy, WR Kevin White, TE Daniel Brown, OL Eric Kush, DB Adrian Amos, DB Bryce Callahan

Rankings and Projections

Player
Mitchell TrubiskyQB20 QB20 QB12
Tarik Cohen RB22 RB30 RB15
David MontgomeryRB28 RB24 RB28
Allen RobinsonWR34 WR37 WR36
Anthony Miller WR50 WR45N/A
Trey BurtonTE17TE16TE12
Eddy Pineiro K32N/A N/A
Chris BlewittN/AN/A K32
Bears DST DST1 DST1 DST1
 
Heath Cummings' projected offensive stats
QBMitch Trubisky3796 YD, 26 TD, 13 INT; 467 Rush YD, 3 TD
RBDavid Montgomery203 ATT, 851 YD, 7 TD; 29 REC, 230 YD, 1 TD
RBTarik Cohen99 ATT, 426 YD, 4 TD; 71 REC, 619 YD, 4 TD
WRAllen Robinson109 TAR, 62 REC, 859 YD, 6 TD
WRAnthony Miller68 TAR, 43 REC, 545 YD, 5 TD
WRTaylor Gabriel78 TAR, 52 REC, 601 YD, 3 TD
TETrey Burton78 TAR, 55 REC, 562 YD, 5 TD

Biggest Question

Is Anthony Miller the Bears' best WR?  

"Miller led the Bears with seven receiving touchdowns as a rookie despite dislocating his shoulder multiple times during the season. He's coming back from labrum surgery and has predicted a 12-touchdown season. While his upside isn't quite that high, Miller's versatility, speed and big hands give him the best all-around game among the Bears' deep receiving corps." - Dave Richard 

One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust

Sleeper: Allen Robinson

Guys with 1,400-yard, 14-touchdown seasons on their resumes rarely qualify as sleepers, but these days Robinson is going in the WR3 range at the end of the sixth round. Despite playing just 13 games in his first season with Chicago, Robinson led the team in targets, averaging 7.2 per game. He notched 13 more in the Bears' playoff game, stepping up with 10 catches for 143 yards and a score. While the Bears did spread the ball around, Robinson was more of a No. 1 than he got credit for, and the perception of him as a disappointment is mostly due to missing three games, posting his best game when it didn't matter for Fantasy, and a bit of bad touchdown luck with just four regular season scores. If we include the playoff game and pace to 16 games, we're looking at 122 targets, 74 receptions, 1,025 yards -- a WR20 PPR season even with depressed touchdowns instead of his actual WR40 finish. Pretty solid line given receivers often struggle to assimilate in their first season with a new team, and the optimistic interpretation is he could build on it in 2019. He's a good buy low at a depressed ADP.      

Breakout: David Montgomery

Montgomery is fairly valued in drafts given free agent acquisition Mike Davis will likely be involved on early downs and Tarik Cohen is a fixture in the passing game. But the rookie from Iowa State was a clear target for the Bears, as they traded up to nab him in the third round with their first 2019 selection. Given the Khalil Mack trade and a trade up in the 2018 draft to select Anthony Miller left them with little firepower in 2019, it's hard to ignore that decision. There is plenty of available opportunity with Jordan Howard no longer in town, and the team is saying all the right things about Montgomery's skill set and ability to be a three-down back. In a good offense, that gives him big potential.

Bust: Anthony Miller

Where Robinson's season was a bit underrated, Miller's was probably overrated. Miller led the team with seven touchdown receptions, but he finished with just 54 targets, well behind Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and Cohen. And his opportunity dwindled down the stretch - he saw just six targets in the team's final five games, before a five-target game in the playoffs. He could certainly take a step forward in year two, and he's not expensive in drafts, but it's a crowded pass-catching room and Miller appeared to be the odd man out last year. There are better reserve wide receiver options for Fantasy.

So which Fantasy Football busts should you avoid in your draft? And which superstar QB isn't a trustworthy QB1 option? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Allen Robinson's disappointing season, and find out.

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