Who says Week 3 is the most exciting week of the preseason? OK, most everyone, but Week 2 was no slouch this year. We got a high-upside receiver back from suspension, saw multiple rookies flash and may have seen the worst-case scenario for a rookie head coach and quarterback. There is more than enough to react to, so let's jump right into this week's Believe It or Not.:
Josh Gordon is worth drafting as a top-30 wide receiver.
Gordon was reinstated by the league over the weekend and instantly became Tom Brady's top outside threat. He will be eligible to play Week 1 and should have plenty of time to get back into football shape. Ben Gretch and I have been telling you throughout the summer than Gordon was worthy of a late-round pick because of the signals he may play. Now that he his, he's worth a pick in the first six rounds as a top-30 receiver.
Verdict: Believe it.
Tom Brady was more efficient when throwing the Gordon than any other target last year. In fact, Gordon's 10.6 yards per target in New England was among the best in the league. He didn't score enough touchdowns to be a Fantasy star, but I wouldn't expect that to be an issue that repeats itself.
The danger with Gordon is that he doesn't play a full season, and it's a fair one. He's only played 16 games once in the NFL, and that was way back in 2012. But the upside with Gordon should be evident when you look at his three games without Rob Gronkowski last year. He averaged more than 100 yards per game and was on a 140-target pace. If you get even 12 games of that in the sixth round, you'll be thrilled.
The Chargers will use Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson in a 50-50 split until Melvin Gordon returns.
The longer Melvin Gordon sits out, the more we have to start thinking about just how high we'd draft the two backups if Gordon isn't there for the first half of the season. I wouldn't call that likely yet, but it's certainly feeling more possible.
Current ADP has Ekeler being drafted early in the seventh round with Jackson lasting until Round 12. With recent reports that these two backs will split the load evenly in Gordon's absence, it's pretty clear who the best value is. The Chargers gave 435 touches to Gordon, Ekeler and Jackson in 2018, if Jackson and Ekeler split that load, they'll both be flex options until Gordon returns. Ekeler's already being drafted like a flex, but Jackson isn't.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
I could maybe believe that the carries will be distributed equally (though not quite). I have a very hard time believing Jackson is going to get half of the targets, because Ekeler has been one of the most efficient pass-catching running backs in the NFL since he entered the league. And catches generally generate more Fantasy points than carries.
It is true that Jackson is a remarkable value in the 12th round. He should be drafted at least two rounds earlier. But Ekeler is also a good value in Round 7. If you told me Gordon was sitting out the first half of the season, I'd view Ekeler as a borderline fourth round pick and a starting No. 2 running back. Draft both Chargers running backs at their current cost.
It's time to reel in the hype on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense.
It's been a mixed bag for the Cardinals' offense, and I haven't really seen anything to change my mind on Kyler Murray or Kliff Kingsbury's offense. But my biggest concern coming into camp was the Cardinals offensive line, and it's been every bit as terrible as I was afraid it would be. They are generating no push at all on running plays and they were badly exposed by the Raiders' blitz packages.
There is still upside in Arizona but it comes with terrifying floor.
Verdict: Believe it.
There is some confirmation bias here, I was the lowest guy on Murray before Preseason Week 2. But anyone who has watched this offensive line has to come away with the same impression: It's pretty terrible. I'm still okay with Murray as a high-upside No. 2 quarterback because the defense is also terrible and he could succeed in garbage time but I'm terrified of David Johnson at his first round price tag. Johnson was a top-10 back in name only last year and we've seen no signs yet he'll be more efficient in 2019.
If you want to speculate on this offense do it in the double-digit rounds, not your first pick.
Miles Sanders is winning the starting job in Philadelphia.
We've heard plenty of camp reports about how Sanders was clearly the best back in Philadelphia, but it was nice to get some confirmation from both the coaches and the film. Sanders started the Eagles Week 2 game and ripped off multiple big plays in the process. They were types of plays that we just don't expect to see from his main competition, Jordan Howard.
We expected Sanders to take this job from Howard by midseason, but he may just do it by Week 1.
Verdict: Believe it.
Just remember what "this job" means. No coach believes in the committee approach more than Doug Pederson. Sanders will share with Howard, Darren Sproles and maybe others. It's virtually unheard of for a back in this offense to see more than 60% of the snaps on Sunday, so you shouldn't start projecting anything resembling a feature workload in Philadelphia.
Sanders is a solid No. 3 back worth a pick in the seventh round, which is right around when his ADP is. His upside is limited by Pederson's philosophy but it's not hard to see how he finished as a top-25 back.