There are three wide receivers I'm extremely excited draft this season who are tremendous bargains based on the early Average Draft Position data: D.J. Chark, Marquise Brown and Will Fuller. All three are headed for breakout Fantasy campaigns in the 2020 NFL season.
Chark is being drafted as the No. 30 receiver at 80.9 overall. That's laugh out loud funny. Chark is worth drafting in Round 4 as a top-20 receiver, and he should have a big year in his third season in the NFL.
In 2019, Chark had seven games with at least 16 PPR points in the 15 games he played. He should see a slight uptick in the 7.9 targets he averaged a game last year, and I like that new Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden wants to use Chark more in the slot. If he somehow stays on the board in Round 7 in your league, consider that a steal.
Brown is actually being drafted ahead of Chark as the No. 29 receiver at 80.6 overall. I'd rather have Chark, but I like Brown as a Round 6 selection, especially in non-PPR leagues.
He's healthy after dealing with a foot injury last year. Keep in mind in the first five games of 2019, before missing two games with injury, Brown averaged 13.8 PPR points per game on 7.8 targets per outing. He should continue to improve in his second season, and he's got the potential to become a starting Fantasy receiver in all leagues.
And Fuller, who is the No. 36 receiver at 103.3 overall based on ADP, is also a steal at that price. I would draft him in Round 6 as well. The biggest knock on Fuller is going to be his health since he's missed 14 games the past two seasons, but don't let that stop you from drafting him.
He has league-winning potential, especially at this price, but he should be the No. 1 receiver for the Texans now that DeAndre Hopkins is gone. That means there are 150 targets available, and while Brandin Cooks will take a significant amount, Fuller is the one with an established rapport with Deshaun Watson. I can see Fuller finishing as a top 20 Fantasy receiver in all leagues.
Now, let's examine 15 other wide receivers with good ADP values.
- D.J. Moore (WR13) - 43.2 overall
- Calvin Ridley (WR16) - 50.5 overall
- Allen Robinson (WR18) - 54.5 overall
- Michael Gallup (WR32) - 91.4 overall
- Marvin Jones (WR37) - 105.1 overall
- Henry Ruggs (WR39) - 106.8 overall
- Diontae Johnson (WR41) - 108.4 overall
- Sterling Shepard (WR46) - 123.3 overall
- Jamison Crowder (WR48) - 127.7 overall
- Preston Williams (WR54) - 140.5 overall
- Mecole Hardman (WR56) - 142.3 overall
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR57) - 143-9 overall
- Anthony Miller (WR61) - 148.8 overall
- Allen Lazard (WR62) - 150.6 overall
- Steven Sims (WR81) - 203.0 overall
Moore and Ridley are two of my favorite breakout candidates this year in their third season in the NFL. I could see Moore among the league leaders in receptions, and he just needs a slight boost in his touchdowns with six total in two years. And Ridley should be heavily targeted for the Falcons, who led the NFL in pass attempts last season.
Robinson is another receiver who could challenge for the NFL lead in receptions this year as the target leader for the Bears. But don't rule out Miller as a sleeper as another third-year receiver on the rise.
Speaking of third-year guys, it might seem like the time to bail on Gallup with the addition of CeeDee Lamb in Dallas, as well as Amari Cooper still on the roster. But Gallup, at his ADP, is actually my favorite Cowboys receiver this season, and I love him as a No. 3 Fantasy option with upside.
There are three veterans listed here that you might not think of as quality Fantasy receivers, but don't overlook Jones, Shepard and Crowder. Jones was on pace for 84 catches, 1,070 yards and 12 scores with a healthy Matthew Stafford. Shepard averaged 14.3 PPR points in seven games with Daniel Jones. And Crowder had seven games with at least 15 PPR points in the 13 games he played with Sam Darnold.
The rookie wide receiver class this year will be somewhat tough to trust given the lack of offseason work, but two guys I plan to draft are Ruggs and Aiyuk. I like that the Raiders are talking about using Ruggs in the slot, and Aiyuk could be the No. 1 receiver for the 49ers to start the season with Deebo Samuel (foot) hurt.
Four second-year receivers listed here could be fantastic given their ADP in Johnson, Williams, Hardman and Sims. For Johnson, he will benefit in a big way with Ben Roethlisberger back, and he averaged 14.8 PPR points in his final four outings in 2019. Williams could challenge DeVante Parker to be the No. 1 receiver in Miami now that he's fully recovered from last year's torn ACL. Hardman could be the No. 2 receiver in Kansas City, ahead of Sammy Watkins. And Sims had 16 catches for 190 yards and four touchdowns on 29 targets in his final three games last year.
As for Lazard, he's in a great situation in Green Bay as the No. 2 receiver opposite Davante Adams. While the Packers don't seem like a high-volume passing team this season, Adams should see enough targets to make him a potential No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues.
Here are 15 wide receivers with potential bad value based on their ADP:
- DeAndre Hopkins (WR5) - 22.1 overall
- Mike Evans (WR7) - 34.9 overall
- Cooper Kupp (WR8) - 35.7 overall
- Amari Cooper (WR12) - 43.0 overall
- Odell Beckham (WR14) - 45.6 overall
- Keenan Allen (WR17) - 53.4 overall
- T.Y. Hilton (WR22) - 64.3 overall
- DeVante Parker (WR27) - 76.4 overall
- CeeDee Lamb (WR34) - 96.4 overall
- Jerry Jeudy (WR35) - 97.3 overall
- Deebo Samuel (WR40) - 107.4 overall
- Jalen Reagor (WR43) - 118.7 overall
- Justin Jefferson (WR46) - 122.2 overall
- Sammy Watkins (WR50) - 129.2 overall
- Emmanuel Sanders (WR51) - 130.8 overall
I don't consider Hopkins a top five Fantasy receiver this year, and I'm likely avoiding him in Round 2. I'm still hopeful he'll be a standout Fantasy receiver with the Cardinals, but I expect his stats to decline after leaving the Texans based on a lower volume of targets.
Evans and Kupp are fine receivers to target in Round 3 in all leagues, but I don't consider them as top 10 Fantasy options this year. In PPR, they are also No. 2 Fantasy receivers in my rankings, and I'd rather have Robert Woods over Kupp if I'm drafting one of the Rams. Evans is behind Chris Godwin in ADP here, but I think Evans gets a slight downgrade with Tom Brady coming to Tampa Bay, as well as the addition of Rob Gronkowski.
Cooper, Beckham and Allen are bust candidates for me this season, so I won't be drafting them at this ADP. Cooper will lose production with the addition of Lamb, so I would not draft him as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver. Beckham might not improve much from 2019 when he averaged a career-low 64.7 yards per game, with the Browns also expected to be run heavy under new coach Kevin Stefanski. And I expect Allen to lose value with Philip Rivers gone, especially in non-PPR leagues.
Speaking of Rivers, I like his addition in Indianapolis for Hilton. But I don't like that Hilton is already battling a hamstring injury at the start of training camp, and I would prefer to draft him a few spots lower than WR22.
As stated above, I expect Williams to challenge Parker as the No. 1 receiver in Miami. While WR27 isn't a bad spot for Parker, I would not be surprised if he finished lower than that if Williams stays healthy this season. I'm also concerned for Parker that he'll lose production when Tua Tagovailoa eventually takes over for Ryan Fitzpatrick during the year.
While I like Ruggs and Aiyuk at their ADP, I'm likely avoiding Lamb and Jeudy at this cost. There could be growing pains for both of them, and Lamb has a crowded receiving corps in Dallas to contend with. As for Reagor and Jefferson, they aren't bad fliers at this price, but this is slightly too soon for both. And Reagor could be in trouble if Alshon Jeffery (foot) is active in the early part of the season.
I'm hopeful that Samuel will be ready for the start of the season, but it sounds like he could be on the PUP list, meaning he'll miss the first six games. That's why I'd rather have Aiyuk at a cheaper price.
And even though it's not bad to take a flier on receivers playing for the Chiefs and Saints like we have here with Watkins and Sanders, I don't know how much upside both have. For Watkins, I'm hopeful we see more of Hardman and less of him, especially after Watkins struggled in 15 of 16 games last season following a dominant Week 1.
I also don't expect Sanders to see a boost in production going to the Saints. For the past three seasons, the No. 2 wide receiver in New Orleans has averaged just 56.7 targets. Sanders should be more involved than that, but it's hard to see a huge role sharing the field with Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook.
So which Fantasy football busts should you completely avoid? And which running back going off the board early should you fade? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that called Baker Mayfield's disappointing season, and find out.