There are times when everything comes together at the start of a draft. When it happens during a mock like this, it certainly makes you wish you could play it out. I was thrilled when Saquon Barkley fell to me at No. 3 in this draft and pleased to take D.J. Moore in Round 2. Kenny Golladay is a top-six receiver for me in non-PPR, so that was an easy pick as well, and then I was able to find two of my top 24 running backs at the four-five turn.
This isn't to brag about how much I like the first five rounds of a draft, but it is a tale about how you have to be ready to attack a draft. I had the second pick in our PPR version of pick-by-pick and D.J. Moore was gone, so I ended up with a start of Barkley, James Conner, and Chris Carson. At that point it was pretty clear I was taking pass catchers and quarterbacks from that point forward, and I was okay with it.
In other words, the third pick is one where you know you're starting with a running back, but your direction after that will be determined by the players everyone else targets.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my team from No. 3 overall:
- 1.3 Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
- 2.10 D.J. Moore, WR, CAR
- 3.3 Kenny Golladay, WR, DET
- 4.10 Le'Veon Bell, RB, NYJ
- 5.3 David Montgomery, RB, CHI
- 6.10 DeVante Parker, WR, MIA
- 7.3 Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU
- 8.10 Hunter Henry, TE, LAC
- 9.3 Latavius Murray, RB, NO
- 10.10 Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
- 11.3 John Brown, WR, BUF
- 12.10 Malcolm Brown, RB, LAR
- 13.3 Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR
- 14.10 Jared Cook, TE, NO
- 15.3 Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
Non-PPR Pick-by-Pick Guide: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
Once I had Barkley, Bell and Montgomery, I wasn't overly concerned about running back depth, but Murray and Brown are two of the late-round running backs who seem to get overlooked the most. Murray was an absolute monster when Alvin Kamara missed time in 2019 and should have flex appeal in non-PPR when Kamara plays. Brown may just be the early downs back for the Rams Week 1 and he seems to have a very good shot at short yardage work.
While I'm pretty thrilled with the running back depth, receiver is a different story. After Moore and Golladay, I'm not sure there's a receiver I'll feel great about starting. Parker has to battle Preston Williams for the No. 1 role, and that's a battle he was losing when Williams was healthy in 2019. Aiyuk has a great opportunity, but consistent receiver opportunities are not something we've seen much in San Francisco. Receivers aren't as important in a non-PPR league, but I wish I had one more I felt good about.
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There were 23 running backs drafted before I took Montgomery in Round 5. Last year Montgomery finished RB21 in this format despite efficiency that should improve and sharing with Mike Davis early in the year. I expect a top-20 finish from Montgomery if he stays healthy, but there is sneaky top-12 upside if the Bears defense is good and they're able to run the ball the way they would like. Montgomery is one of 10 backs I have projected for 250-plus carries. The other nine were all selected in the first two rounds.
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I need Hunter Henry to be a difference-maker at tight end or the sacrifice in depth at wide receiver wasn't worth the pick. Henry was very good for a stretch in 2019, but he's struggled with injuries throughout his career, and Tyrod Taylor starting could lower the Chargers pass volume. Three of the next four picks after I took Henry were Julian Edelman, Jerry Jeudy and Jalen Reagor. It's quite possible one (or more) of those receivers is better than DeVante Parker, my No. 3. It's also possible I wish I was starting one of them at flex.
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If Bell's volume in 2020 is similar and his efficiency regresses as I expect, then he's going to be a fantastic No. 2 running back in any format. If that's the case, I'll have two top-15 running backs to go with my pair of top-10 receivers and this team will be off to the races. But if Frank Gore steals touchdowns and Bell's efficiency remains poor, he may not even be a starter in leagues where catches don't count.
So which Fantasy football busts should you completely avoid? And which running back going off the board early should you fade? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that called Baker Mayfield's disappointing season, and find out.
