The bad news if you've got the No. 2 pick in your Fantasy football draft? You're probably not going to get Christian McCaffrey. The good news? You'll get anyone else you want in Round 1 — and pick before the guy who took McCaffrey in Round 2.
Ezekiel Elliott has a career 91% success rate of getting 10-plus non-PPR points when he plays. That's way better than Saquon Barkley (76%). So he's my pick in any draft where I can't get McCaffrey, though I wouldn't hold it against you if you went with Barkley, who is 20 months younger than Elliott.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my team from No. 2 overall:
- 1.02: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys
- 2.11: James Conner, RB, Steelers
- 3.02: Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks
- 4.11: DK Metcalf, WR, Metcalf
- 5.02: Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles
- 6.11: Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns
- 7.02: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks
- 8.11: Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots
- 9.02: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos
- 10.11: Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys
- 11.02: Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington Football Team
- 12.11: Nyheim Hines, RB, Colts
- 13.02: Sony Michel, RB, Patriots
- 14.11: Robby Anderson, WR, Panthers
- 15.02: Golden Tate, WR, Giants
Non-PPR Pick-by-Pick Guide: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
I had an interesting choice in Round 2: Take the best-available receiver (DeAndre Hopkins), or settle for the best-available running back (James Conner). I know that running back depth will get thinned out by the time Round 4 comes back around, so getting at least one running back in Rounds 2 and 3 in a non-PPR is optimal. My decision came down to something kind of unique: I thought the drafter at Pick 1 wasn't going to take Hopkins. So I took Conner thinking Hopkins would slide.
Oops. Hopkins went immediately after. And Mike Evans immediately after that.
So with my gamble not paying off, I stared down the likes of Kenny Golladay and Chris Carson. A third running back?! In a non-PPR format, I think it's an easy choice. Carson, like Conner, has a top-10 ceiling. With the firm belief that I could find acceptable wide receivers later on, I squashed any concerns about fielding a good running back group.
Was this the right thing to do? Honestly, I think the answer is yes. Hopkins has potential for a 1,200-yard, 10-touchdown season in Arizona, but Conner and Carson have evidence in their past to be better than that. Catches not meaning anything is a massive factor.
So I could afford to spend my next six picks on anything but running backs, and that's exactly what I did. I rolled with Zach Ertz over D.J. Chark in Round 5 because I feel like they have similar ceilings but Ertz has position scarcity. I made up for passing on Chark with Jarvis Landry in Round 6, Julian Edelman in Round 8 and Jerry Jeudy in Round 9. I am positive I will be fine starting two of those three receivers every week.
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There's a lesson in how I got Wilson: When I was up in late Round 6, I noticed he, Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson were all on the board. Obviously one of them would make it back to me in early Round 7, so I took Landry in Round 6 instead. As it turned out, the drafter at Pick 1 didn't even take a quarterback, so landing an easy top-5 quarterback in Wilson was the delight of my draft.
I might not expect Wilson to last this long in your drafts, but I do implore you to consider supply and demand when you cross-reference your needs with those of the drafter in the first slot. Keep track of that manager's Fantasy draft.
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The downside to taking so many running backs early is not having a reliable wideout in my lineup every week. Metcalf has amazing potential but offers little of the safety that Landry and Edelman theoretically provide. And normally I don't feel strongly about taking a quarterback and a receiver on the same team, but in this instance I think there's some variance in play. Metcalf might score 10 touchdowns, or he could disappoint in his second season and find the end zone half as many times. Not so good for my top receiver.
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Carson or Conner could be placed here, but Carson's the third running back I took. If he struggles, I'll forever regret passing on Kenny Golladay. And even if he's fine and Conner struggles, I'll have remorse in my brain and tears in my eyes. Worse yet, I didn't take the insurance running back for either one. Not having that stellar receiver will be a consistent concern that will only be alleviated if the running backs I began my draft with come through most weeks.
So what Fantasy football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which WR1 candidate can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that was all over Derrick Henry's huge season, and find out.
