In a PPR Fantasy league, any PPR league, Derrick Henry's value leans lower because he's not a safe bet for even 30 receptions in a season. But in a non-PPR league where catches don't matter, Henry is among the most awesome running backs you could take. Which is why I didn't mind drafting him in Round 1 ahead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon or Michael Thomas. True, he had 409 touches last year and running backs with that type of workload are injury risks the following year, but Henry's not built like typical running backs.
That second-round pick is going to be a challenge unless someone way obvious slips. The safe route is to go with a receiver like DeAndre Hopkins or Chris Godwin, or maybe a tight end like George Kittle. But I feel as though running backs are hot properties in drafts this year, especially in formats where catches don't count. Aaron Jones is a hefty risk, but I promised myself I'd add another Packers running back later and took Jones knowing the running backs left when I was up in Round 3 wouldn't be so good.
And ... they weren't. Melvin Gordon was the only reasonable running back with top-12 potential available, and I didn't want to feel the pressure of getting his backup AND Jones' backup. So I went in a different, more lucrative direction from there.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my team from No. 6 overall:
- 1.06: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
- 2.07: Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
- 3.06: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
- 4.07: Robert Woods, WR, Rams
- 5.06: D.J. Chark, WR, Jaguars
- 6.07: Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals
- 7.06: Tyler Higbee, TE, Rams
- 8.07: Darius Slayton, WR, Giants
- 9.06: A.J. Dillon, RB, Packers
- 10.07: James White, RB, Patriots
- 11.06: Rob Gronkowski, TE, Buccaneers
- 12.07: Ryquell Armstead, RB, Jaguars
- 13.06: Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions
- 14.07: Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers
- 15.06: Bryan Edwards, WR, Raiders
Non-PPR Pick-by-Pick Guide: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
I wouldn't expect Patrick Mahomes to make it to the middle of Round 3 in your drafts, but if he does, it's kind of a good idea to take him. Who else (besides Lamar Jackson) offers 30-plus point potential every single week?! I can't say I regret taking him ahead of Gordon or a receiver in Round 3 (Cooper Kupp?).
But taking a quarterback early always creates angst about filling the remainder of your lineup. Getting Mahomes in the middle of Round 3 meant I wouldn't have to wait long to find a receiver in Round 4. I was pleased to have Robert Woods join the squad in Round 4, D.J. Chark in Round 5 and Tyler Boyd in Round 6. They don't carry the same weight as the elite-tier receivers, but they're good players with modest upside, and they're on a team with two quality running backs and Patrick Mahomes. What's not to like?!
I took a risk passing on Tyler Higbee in Round 6 and managed to swipe him in Round 7. That was clutch. Part of the reason why I passed was because a handful of drafters already took a tight end. I thought that helped my odds a little. Don't forget to check out the needs of other drafters picking after you each round — if you can beat them to the punch for a player at a position they need, do it.
Why did I take Matthew Stafford in Round 13? Because he was there and I wanted a great value with my pick! The bet is I can trade him for someone who went in Round 11 or sooner later this season. Don't let an obvious value go under your nose in the late rounds.
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Mahomes is going in the first round of some drafts. That's too soon. Round 2 might be a little too soon, too. But the middle of Round 3? It's as if the 11 other drafters in this league got together and said, "Let's make Dave's day" and gave me Mahomes. Supply and demand when it comes to roster building is real, but so too is not being ignorant to amazing value.
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Getting Gronk in Round 11 isn't exactly risky, but it did take away an opportunity to try strengthening my wide receiver corps. I could have taken DeSean Jackson or Breshad Perriman, both of whom have higher ceilings in terms of yards. Gronkowski might be a touchdown magnet and little else. I suppose he's there as Higbee insurance and as a possible flex, but I could have had someone else with more upside and waited for a tight end like Austin Hooper a little later on.
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Touchdown regression is real, and if Jones starts seeing fewer scores, this pick isn't going to be so good. If he ends up losing touches to A.J. Dillon and/or Jamaal Williams, then the pick will be LOL bad. In retrospect, I could have taken George Kittle in Round 2, Le'Veon Bell in Round 4, Jordan Howard in Round 7 and Anthony Miller in Round 9. Would that have been better? Eh, probably not, so I'll just hope Jones comes through like he has previously in non-PPR formats.
So what Fantasy football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which WR1 candidate can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that was all over Derrick Henry's huge season, and find out.
