Watch Now: Fantasy Football Today Podcast: 2020 Fantasy Sleepers (1:04:58)

Each of the last two seasons has seen a record-breaking performance from a young quarterback, and the effects on the Fantasy landscape have been profound. First, it was Patrick Mahomes in 2018 breaking the 500-point barrier in a six-point-per-pass-touchdown format; in 2019, it was Lamar Jackson dropping 487 points in just 15 games, while leaving several games early due to blowouts. 

Both presented plenty of challenges for trying to figure out how to assess their value for the next season. There was no doubt going into 2019 that Mahomes was an elite Fantasy QB, and there isn't any doubt Jackson will be in 2020, and Mahomes is right there with him. 

However, when it comes to projecting coming off a record-breaking season, it's hard not to feel like a bit of a wet blanket. Everyone wants to believe the latest outlier performer is different — that the rules of regression that have held Peyton Manning and Michael Vick in check in the past just won't apply to these guys. But as we saw with Mahomes in 2019, those rules still applied. 

Even before Mahomes' midseason injury, he was well off his 2018 pace. Through the first six games, he had a 6.1% touchdown rate, a great number, but well short of the 8.6% mark he had in 2019. This was easy to predict, even if it was a lot less fun than just assuming he would repeat his performance. 

And the same thing holds for Jackson coming off his 1,206 rush yard season with a 9.0% passing touchdown rate. It's not impossible that he repeats that performance, but history is against him. 

Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch have been discussing their projections for the 2020 season this week on the Fantasy Football Today Podcast, and they've had to grapple with how to handle Jackson. Heath has Jackson dropping from 487 Fantasy points to 390.7; for his part, Ben gives Jackson a robust 440.4. 

Both are incredible marks; both slot Jackson in as an elite QB. But both represent big regression from his breakout. That's the nature of the beast.

Here are the tiers for quarterback, based on Ben and Heath's 2020 projections:

Heath Cummings' QB projection tiers - 6 point per TD

390-plus points

380-385 points

Patrick Mahomes

Dak Prescott

Lamar Jackson

370-375 points

360-365 points

Russell Wilson

Kyler Murray

DeShaun Watson

Carson Wentz

Josh Allen

345-350 points

325-340 points

Tom Brady

Matthew Stafford

Aaron Rodgers

Gardner Minshew

Matt Ryan

Cam Newton

Drew Brees

Jared Goff

Ben Roethlisberger

Daniel Jones

Tyrod Taylor

300-320 points

250-300 points

Ryan Tannehill

Dwayne Haskins

Joe Burrow

Sam Darnold

Drew Lock

Tua Tagovailoa

Jimmy Garoppolo

Teddy Bridgewater

Derek Carr

Baker Mayfield

Kirk Cousins

Mitchell Trubisky

Philip Rivers

Heath Cummings' QB projection tiers - 4 point per TD

335-plus points

320-330 points

Lamar Jackson

Dak Prescott

Patrick Mahomes

DeShaun Watson

300-315 points

280-295 points

Kyler Murray

Aaron Rodgers

Russell Wilson

Matt Ryan

Josh Allen

Tom Brady

Carson Wentz

Gardner Minshew

Drew Brees

Matthew Stafford

Cam Newton

Tyrod Taylor

260-280 points

260-and-below points

Daniel Jones

Baker Mayfield

Jared Goff

Mitchell Trubisky

Ben Roethlisberger

Kirk Cousins

Ryan Tannehill

Philip Rivers

Joe Burrow

Dwayne Haskins

Drew Lock

Sam Darnold

Teddy Bridgewater

Tua Tagovailoa

Jimmy Garoppolo

Derek Carr

Ben Gretch's QB projection tiers - 6 point per TD

440-445 points

415-420 points

Patrick Mahomes

Russell Wilson

Lamar Jackson

390-395 points

370-380 points

Kyler Murray

Tom Brady

Dak Prescott

Carson Wentz

Deshaun Watson

Drew Brees

Matt Ryan

350-365 points

325-340 points

Matthew Stafford

Daniel Jones

Aaron Rodgers

Gardner Minshew

Jared Goff

Joe Burrow

Ben Roethlisberger

Philip Rivers

Josh Allen

Baker Mayfield

Cam Newton

300-320 points

Ryan Tannehill

Teddy Bridgewater

Jimmy Garoppolo

Kirk Cousins

Derek Carr

Drew Lock

Ben Gretch's QB projection tiers - 4 point per TD

375-390 points

340-355 points

Lamar Jackson

Russell Wilson

Patrick Mahomes

Kyler Murray

Deshaun Watson

Dak Prescott

310-325 points

295-305 points

Carson Wentz

Jared Goff

Tom Brady

Aaron Rodgers

Matt Ryan

Ben Roethlisberger

Josh Allen

Daniel Jones

Drew Brees

Gardner Minshew

Matthew Stafford

Cam Newton

275-290 points

255-270 points

Joe Burrow

Jimmy Garoppolo

Philip Rivers

Drew Lock

Baker Mayfield

Derek Carr

Ryan Tannehill

Kirk Cousins

Teddy Bridgewater

Dwayne Haskins

Nick Foles