Each of the last two seasons has seen a record-breaking performance from a young quarterback, and the effects on the Fantasy landscape have been profound. First, it was Patrick Mahomes in 2018 breaking the 500-point barrier in a six-point-per-pass-touchdown format; in 2019, it was Lamar Jackson dropping 487 points in just 15 games, while leaving several games early due to blowouts.
Both presented plenty of challenges for trying to figure out how to assess their value for the next season. There was no doubt going into 2019 that Mahomes was an elite Fantasy QB, and there isn't any doubt Jackson will be in 2020, and Mahomes is right there with him.
However, when it comes to projecting coming off a record-breaking season, it's hard not to feel like a bit of a wet blanket. Everyone wants to believe the latest outlier performer is different — that the rules of regression that have held Peyton Manning and Michael Vick in check in the past just won't apply to these guys. But as we saw with Mahomes in 2019, those rules still applied.
Even before Mahomes' midseason injury, he was well off his 2018 pace. Through the first six games, he had a 6.1% touchdown rate, a great number, but well short of the 8.6% mark he had in 2019. This was easy to predict, even if it was a lot less fun than just assuming he would repeat his performance.
And the same thing holds for Jackson coming off his 1,206 rush yard season with a 9.0% passing touchdown rate. It's not impossible that he repeats that performance, but history is against him.
Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch have been discussing their projections for the 2020 season this week on the Fantasy Football Today Podcast, and they've had to grapple with how to handle Jackson. Heath has Jackson dropping from 487 Fantasy points to 390.7; for his part, Ben gives Jackson a robust 440.4.
Both are incredible marks; both slot Jackson in as an elite QB. But both represent big regression from his breakout. That's the nature of the beast.
Here are the tiers for quarterback, based on Ben and Heath's 2020 projections:
Heath Cummings' QB projection tiers - 6 point per TD
390-plus points | 380-385 points |
Patrick Mahomes | |
Lamar Jackson | |
370-375 points | 360-365 points |
345-350 points | 325-340 points |
300-320 points | 250-300 points |
Heath Cummings' QB projection tiers - 4 point per TD
335-plus points | 320-330 points |
Lamar Jackson | Dak Prescott |
Patrick Mahomes | DeShaun Watson |
300-315 points | 280-295 points |
Kyler Murray | Aaron Rodgers |
Russell Wilson | Matt Ryan |
Josh Allen | Tom Brady |
Carson Wentz | Gardner Minshew |
Drew Brees | |
Matthew Stafford | |
Cam Newton | |
Tyrod Taylor | |
260-280 points | 260-and-below points |
Daniel Jones | Baker Mayfield |
Jared Goff | Mitchell Trubisky |
Ben Roethlisberger | Kirk Cousins |
Ryan Tannehill | Philip Rivers |
Joe Burrow | Dwayne Haskins |
Drew Lock | Sam Darnold |
Teddy Bridgewater | Tua Tagovailoa |
Jimmy Garoppolo | |
Derek Carr |
Ben Gretch's QB projection tiers - 6 point per TD
440-445 points | 415-420 points |
Patrick Mahomes | Russell Wilson |
Lamar Jackson | |
390-395 points | 370-380 points |
Kyler Murray | Tom Brady |
Dak Prescott | Carson Wentz |
Deshaun Watson | Drew Brees |
Matt Ryan | |
350-365 points | 325-340 points |
Matthew Stafford | Daniel Jones |
Aaron Rodgers | Gardner Minshew |
Jared Goff | Joe Burrow |
Ben Roethlisberger | Philip Rivers |
Josh Allen | Baker Mayfield |
Cam Newton | |
300-320 points | |
Ryan Tannehill | |
Teddy Bridgewater | |
Jimmy Garoppolo | |
Kirk Cousins | |
Derek Carr | |
Drew Lock |
Ben Gretch's QB projection tiers - 4 point per TD
375-390 points | 340-355 points |
Lamar Jackson | Russell Wilson |
Patrick Mahomes | Kyler Murray |
Deshaun Watson | |
Dak Prescott | |
310-325 points | 295-305 points |
Carson Wentz | Jared Goff |
Tom Brady | Aaron Rodgers |
Matt Ryan | Ben Roethlisberger |
Josh Allen | Daniel Jones |
Drew Brees | Gardner Minshew |
Matthew Stafford | |
Cam Newton | |
275-290 points | 255-270 points |
Joe Burrow | Jimmy Garoppolo |
Philip Rivers | Drew Lock |
Baker Mayfield | Derek Carr |
Ryan Tannehill | Kirk Cousins |
Teddy Bridgewater | Dwayne Haskins |