Watch Now: Fantasy Football Today Podcast: 2020 Fantasy Sleepers (1:04:58)

As projections week continues on the Fantasy Football Today Podcast, it's time to turn our attention to wide receiver. It's an interesting time for the position, which only makes it harder for Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch as they try to project the position. 

While passing is more prolific than ever, the top of the position hasn't really reflected that for Fantasy. Oh sure, you had Michael Thomas' historic 2019 season, but the number of 150-target receivers has remained relatively constant over the past decade.

How has that happened? Well, it's partially a result of the way offenses have changed structure. There is more passing overall, yes, but there are also more potential receivers on the field for most routes; most teams are running 11 personnel the majority of the time, with just one tight end and one running back on the field. And, often, all five are being sent out into routes, giving the quarterback five potential targets, whereas it might have been more like three on any given play for much of the NFL's history. 

This has special relevance for someone like DeAndre Hopkins, who is going from a Texans team that ran 401 plays with either one or two WR on the field in 2019 to a Cardinals team that ran just 280. The Cardinals most common formation was a three-wide set, and their second-most common was a four-wide set, which they used 31% of the time; no other team even ran 10% of their snaps in such a formation. 

So, when it comes time to project Hopkins, you've got to try to figure out what his usage is going to look like on a team like that first and foremost. It's fair to expect his target share to dip, and that's exactly what Heath and Ben project: Heath has Hopkins down for 141 targets and a 25% target share; Ben has him getting 148 and a 25.9% share. Both would be steps back for Hopkins, who had 150 targets and a 30.3% target share in 2019. 

That's enough to drop Hopkins out of the elite tier at the position for both Heath and Ben, somewhere he'd been cemented for years. To get there in 2020, he'll need to command attention from Kyler Murray like he used to from Deshaun Watson despite more competition for targets, or he'll need to be a beast in the red zone.

Both are definitely possible, but it's not what our experts are expecting for 2020:

Heath Cummings' PPR WR projection tiers

320-plus points

300-plus points

285-plus points

250-265 points

Michael Thomas

Davante Adams

Julio Jones

D.J. Moore

Tyreek Hill

Chris Godwin

DeAndre Hopkins

245-250 points

235-240 points

225-235 points

210-225 points

Allen Robinson

Kenny Golladay

Keenan Allen

Stefon Diggs

Cooper Kupp

Tyler Lockett

T.Y. Hilton

Courtland Sutton

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Mike Evans

A.J. Brown

Terry McLaurin

Calvin Ridley

Odell Beckham

A.J. Green

DJ Chark

Amari Cooper

Robert Woods

Michael Gallup

Adam Thielen

Julian Edelman

195-210 points

180-195 points

160-180 points

140-160 points

Jarvis Landry

Jamison Crowder

Golden Tate

Darius Slayton

Devante Parker

Allen Lazard

Preston Williams

Mike Williams

D.K. Metcalf

John Brown

Diontae Johnson

Brandon Aiyuk

Tyler Boyd

Sterling Shepard

Laviska Shenault

Justin Jefferson

Marvin Jones

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb

Corey Davis

Marquise Brown

Christian Kirk

Robby Anderson

Henry Ruggs

Brandin Cooks

Deebo Samuel

DeSean Jackson

Emmanuel Sanders

Will Fuller

Dede Westbrook

Larry Fitzgerald

Curtis Samuel

Breshad Perriman

Denzel Mims

Mecole Hardman

Anthony Miller

Jalen Reagor

Steven Sims

Kelvin Harmon

Hunter Renfrow

Tyrell Williams

Heath Cummings' non-PPR WR projection tiers

200-210 points

180-190 points

160-170

Michael Thomas

Davante Adams

D.J. Moore

Julio Jones

Kenny Golladay

Tyreek Hill

Chris Godwin

Amari Cooper

Mike Evans

Calvin Ridley

Cooper Kupp

155-160 points

145-155 points

135-145 points

Adam Thielen

T.Y. Hilton

DJ Chark

DeAndre Hopkins

A.J. Green

Keenan Allen

Odell Beckham

Robert Woods

Stefon Diggs

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Courtland Sutton

D.K. Metcalf

Tyler Lockett

Michael Gallup

Devante Parker

Allen Robinson

Terry McLaurin

Marvin Jones

A.J. Brown

120-130 points

105-120 points

90-105 points

Julian Edelman

Will Fuller

Mecole Hardman

Marquise Brown

Laviska Shenault

Brandon Aiyuk

Jarvis Landry

Christian Kirk

Breshad Perriman

John Brown

Preston Williams

Anthony Miller

Brandin Cooks

Jamison Crowder

Henry Ruggs

Tyler Boyd

Sterling Shepard

Justin Jefferson

Deebo Samuel

CeeDee Lamb

Corey Davis

Jerry Jeudy

DeSean Jackson

Jalen Reagor

Allen Lazard

Robby Anderson

Emmanuel Sanders

Golden Tate

Dede Westbrook

Diontae Johnson

Tyrell Williams

Darius Slayton

Sammy Watkins

Curtis Samuel

Larry Fitzgerald

Denzel Mims

Mike Williams

Ben Gretch's PPR WR projection tiers

330-plus points

280-295 points

260-275 points

255-260 points

Michael Thomas

Davante Adams

D.J. Moore

Cooper Kupp

Tyreek Hill

DeAndre Hopkins

Tyler Lockett

Julio Jones

Chris Godwin

Robert Woods

Mike Evans

Allen Robinson

Calvin Ridley

Kenny Golladay

JuJu Smith-Schuster

A.J. Brown

230-240 points

210-225 points

195-205 points

180-195 points

Odell Beckham

Will Fuller

Michael Gallup

Jamison Crowder

D.J. Chark

Keenan Allen

Christian Kirk

DeVante Parker

Adam Thielen

A.J. Green

Courtland Sutton

Sterling Shepard

Amari Cooper

D.K. Metcalf

Marvin Jones

Brandin Cooks

T.Y. Hilton

Jarvis Landry

Diontae Johnson

John Brown

Stefon Diggs

Julian Edelman

Marquise Brown

Terry McLaurin

Tyler Boyd

160-170 points

145-160 points

130-140 points

115-130 points

Deebo Samuel

Curtis Samuel

Steven Sims

Sammy Watkins

CeeDee Lamb

Mecole Hardman

Brandon Aiyuk

Cole Beasley

Laviska Shenault

Breshad Perriman

Anthony Miller

Emmanuel Sanders

N'Keal Harry

Jerry Jeudy

Henry Ruggs

Denzel Mims

Preston Williams

DeSean Jackson

Robby Anderson

John Ross

Mike Williams

Justin Jefferson

Parris Campbell

Danny Amendola

Darius Slayton

Allen Lazard

Mohamed Sanu

Corey Davis

Larry Fitzgerald

Jalen Reagor

James Washington

Golden Tate

Randall Cobb

Michael Pittman

Ben Gretch's non-PPR WR projection tiers

200-210 points

185-190 points

170-180 points

Michael Thomas

Davante Adams

Kenny Golladay

Tyreek Hill

Julio Jones

Mike Evans

D.J. Moore

A.J. Brown

Calvin Ridley

Chris Godwin

DeAndre Hopkins

Tyler Lockett

160-170 points

150-160 points

140-150 points

Robert Woods

D.J. Chark

D.K. Metcalf

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Adam Thielen

A.J. Green

Cooper Kupp

Stefon Diggs

Allen Robinson

T.Y. Hilton

Odell Beckham

Amari Cooper

Terry McLaurin

Will Fuller

125-140 points

100-120 points

85-95 points

Courtland Sutton

John Brown

Larry Fitzgerald

Michael Gallup

Brandin Cooks

Allen Lazard

Marvin Jones

Jamison Crowder

Justin Jefferson

Christian Kirk

Sterling Shepard

Jerry Jeudy

Keenan Allen

Mike Williams

Robby Anderson

Jarvis Landry

Deebo Samuel

Henry Ruggs

Julian Edelman

CeeDee Lamb

Brandon Aiyuk

Tyler Boyd

Darius Slayton

Steven Sims

Marquise Brown

Preston Williams

Anthony Miller

DeVante Parker

N'Keal Harry

Jalen Reagor

Diontae Johnson

Laviska Shenault

John Ross

Mecole Hardman

Curtis Samuel

Golden Tate

Breshad Perriman