Picking at the turn is always an interesting experience. It can be great to take back-to-back picks when the draft reaches you and you have two clear targets, but you also always have to be wary of the long wait between picks, and sometimes you have to overdraft a guy knowing he won't make it back to make sure you build the roster you want.
In this mock, I decided to start with Kenyan Drake and Tyreek Hill at the 1/2 turn. Drake is my RB8 in PPR formats, and I love the upside in an offense that produced big Fantasy games not just for him but also David Johnson and Chase Edmonds throughout the 2019 season. I considered going Zero RB here, but I like getting one RB I have high hopes for before turning my attention to building wide receiver depth.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award one point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my team from No. 12 overall:
- 1.12 Kenyan Drake, RB, Cardinals
- 2.01 Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs
- 3.12 A.J. Brown, WR, Titans
- 4.01 Odell Beckham, WR, Browns
- 5.12 Will Fuller, WR, Texans
- 6.01 Cam Akers, RB, Rams
- 7.12 CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
- 8.01 Matt Breida, RB, Dolphins
- 9.12 Boston Scott, RB, Eagles
- 10.01 Hayden Hurst, TE, Falcons
- 11.12 Laviska Shenault, WR, Jaguars
- 12.01 Ryquell Armstead, RB, Jaguars
- 13.12 Jared Goff, QB, Rams
- 14.01 Lynn Bowden, RB, Raiders
- 15.12 Sammy Watkins, WR, Chiefs
I'm really excited about the wide receiver group I built out in this draft. I've expressed why A.J. Brown is, and Hill is my WR2 ahead of Davante Adams. A big reason for that is Hill's production last year outside two games he left early — he played fewer than 20% of the snaps in both. During his other 10 games, Hill paced for a very similar line to his 2018 production that was good enough for the WR3 finish. Adams was slightly better that season on a points per game basis, but Hill's points per game last year without those two injury-shortened games would have bested Adams. I still like Adams, and have the two close, but Adams has thrived on huge target volume whereas Hill could seemingly stretch his production even higher in a ridiculously Fantasy-friendly situation.
I'm also very high on Fuller this year, another player who has been efficient over the past two seasons but has had well-documented injury issues. Of the Texans receivers, Fuller has the advantage having already built a strong rapport with Deshaun Watson, and I expect a breakout season this year. Then there's CeeDee Lamb, who is already getting rave reviews in camp and was my favorite wide receiver of the 2020 class. It's a high-upside group across the board.
Adding Hayden Hurst and Jared Goff late gave me stable producers at tight end and quarterback. Hurst joins a Falcons team that projects to again throw more than 600 times, and has a concentrated target tree. I expect him to see plenty of volume this season and be a solid TE1. Goff is one of my favorite late-round quarterbacks, particularly because his 3.5% touchdown rate in 2019 was more than two percentage points below the 5.9% and 5.7% rates he posted in his first two seasons under Sean McVay. With three highly-drafted weapons catching passes from him, Goff's late Average Draft Position is one of the most difficult to understand at the quarterback position this year.
I've convinced myself Scott is the next Austin Ekeler, and he's my favorite late-round running back to target. Like Ekeler, Scott gets knocked a bit for being undersized, but also like Ekeler he's an excellent athlete and is a stocky 195 pounds at his 5-foot-7-inch height. Scott's also reportedly a workout warrior, and we know from social media Ekeler's dedication in the weight room is one of his differentiating edges.
But more to the point, Scott combines Ekeler's high-reception profile with the same strong touchdown potential. The Eagles don't mind using their pass-catching backs inside-the-10, as evidenced by Scott's eight Green Zone touches last year, including seven in the final four games when his workload expanded. Scott also caught 23 passes in those final four games, and that creates monster upside should his role expand. At the least, Scott should have some stand-alone value even with Miles Sanders expected to be more of a lead back than what we've seen from Doug Pederson offenses in the past.
I like the value I got on Akers at the 5/6 turn, but there's no two ways about it — when you wait on running back, you need to hit on your later picks. Akers could be great in his rookie season, but there's plenty of competition in a Rams backfield that struggled at times in 2019. One plus: Akers has plenty of experience running behind a poor offensive line at Florida State, and while his metrics leave something to be desired, scouts seem to love that he was able to create on his own.
The Rams also seem to have loved it, because they invested a second-round pick on him, even taking him over the frequently higher-graded J.K. Dobbins. That's enough for me to bet on the upside, but if Akers can't carve out a substantial role, I could be left questioning the decision to select him where I did.
This isn't entirely about Beckham, because Brown and Fuller fit here, too. With the way I structured this roster, I need it to be fantastic across all three wide receiver spots plus the Flex. I like my later-round RB options, but I'll want four difference-making wide receivers in my lineup most weeks.
And for me, the biggest question mark is Beckham, who has been a tough nut to crack for 2020. On the surface, 2019 was a clear down year by his standards, while his upside is well-established. We know he played hurt, we know the whole offense struggled under Freddie Kitchens, and it would seem a pick at 37th overall is a steal in any Fantasy draft.
But one major concern is that new coach Kevin Stefanski pigeon-holed Stefon Diggs into a deep threat role last year while coordinating the Vikings offense, and for as good as Diggs was on a per-target basis, his ceiling never really materialized as he fell short of 100 targets. If a similar role is in store for Beckham in Cleveland in what could easily be a similar offense heavy on two-TE sets, he might have a hard time rebounding to the types of numbers we expected from his Giants days.
So what Fantasy football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which WR1 candidate can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that was all over Derrick Henry's huge season, and find out.