One of he problems with drafting solely based on projections is that in theory you'd miss too many breakouts. That's because projections are mostly designed in a way to seriously limit outliers. That's helpful if you're trying not to miss by too much, but it can be limiting in a game where we're in constant need of upside. It's also why it's so exciting when the projections are actually calling for a breakout, as they are with Kyler Murray and Josh Allen.
Both of these quarterbacks were mostly bad as passers last year, but did enough with their legs to be serviceable Fantasy options. They also both got big help in the passing game this offseason with Murray landing DeAndre Hopkins and Allen getting Stefon Diggs. It's easy to say now that both have above average receiving corps. These were the only two quarterbacks besides Lamar Jackson to run for more than 500 yards last year, and if they can repeat that and regress to average pass efficiency, they will be top-five quarterbacks.
Murray has the most upside because he was a rookie last year and we've learned not to hold passing efficiency against rookies. Just ask Lamar Jackson. I've got Murray at 7.5 yards per attempt right now, which was pretty close to average in the league last year. I do project he'll run slightly less, but he's essentially tied with Deshaun Watson and Allen for QB5 in the projections. The key to fully unlocking his upside is in the red zone. Last year Murray had an abysmal 3.7% touchdown rate. I've boosted that to a more normal 4.6% for 2020, but 5% is very realistic and 5.5% is well within the error bar. A five percent touchdown rate within my current projections would move Murray ahead of Watson and Russell Wilson and make him the No. 4 quarterback.
I'm a little less optimistic about Allen's improvements as a passer because we've seen him be so bad for two years now. But I feel more confident in Allen's rushing production and have him with 114 more rushing yards and 2.5 more rushing touchdowns than Murray. Where I do think he can grow as a passer is in volume. Allen's 461 attempts last year ranked near the bottom of the league. The acquisition of Diggs and some likely defensive regression makes me hopeful he can top 520 attempts. Remember, Wilson jumped from 427 attempts to 516 last year.
If you need a tiebreaker between Murray and Allen, it's their playoff schedule. Allen faces the Steelers at home in Week 14 then travels to Denver and New England the final two weeks. Murray has a road game against he Giants, then home battles with Philadelphia and the 49ers. Neither schedule is great, but unless Allen makes a leap, it will be difficult to trust him against what could be three of the best defenses in the league.
Here are my updated quarterback projections: