Patrick Mahomes will be 25 years old at the start of the 2021 NFL season, and over the past three seasons he's outscored every active quarterback by more than three Fantasy points per game. In other words, there need be no debate about where he ranks in any Fantasy Football format, most certainly in Dynasty. After Mahomes is where the debate begins, and it's close enough that I struggle to nail down the order myself.
I use a formula that assists with the Dynasty rankings but was originally intended to help put together the Dynasty trade chart, which will come out later this week. That formula places the same amount of distance between Mahomes and No. 2 (Lamar Jackson) as it does between Jackson and No. 7 (Justin Herbert), and also between No. 10 (Tua Tagovailoa) and No. 20 (Tom Brady). That's one of the reasons I believe Mahomes is worth a first-round pick in Dynasty start ups. After him it gets far more challenging.
Over the past calendar year I believe I've had Jackson, Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson at No. 2. There's certainly an argument for Josh Allen, and it wouldn't be surprising at all if Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow, or even Trevor Lawrence joins the discussion this fall.
For now, I've chosen Jackson because he showed us upside in 2019 (32.5 FPPG) that's not been matched by anyone else in the discussion, and even his "down year" in 2020 is better than the second best season any other quarterback in the discussion has produced. Murray showed us half a season of Jackson's upside, and he's had a year less in the league, so it's easier to project growth for him than it is for Jackson or Allen. It wouldn't take much at the start of 2021 for me to move Murray back ahead of Jackson.
One name I don't want to get lost in the shuffle here is Watson. He has some uncertainty now due to his trade demands, but he's the only quarterback other than Mahomes to average at least 24 Fantasy points per game each of the past three seasons. While he's a solid fifth right now, a change in scenery this offseason could propel him ahead of Allen at least. And like Murray, it's not that hard to imagine a start to the 2021 season that propels Watson all the way to No. 2.
One thing that is hard to imagine is anyone taking No. 1 from Mahomes in the next few years.
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Here are my updated Quarterback Dynasty rankings: