Like I did with sleepers, I'm basing busts on early ADP from Bestball10s. It's not a perfect representation of what we'll see in July by any means, but it's not a bad start. And that's a good reminder to remember, this is just a start. Much will change between now and September, but below I've got nine guys I don't believe will live up to their early ADP.
The thing I hate about writing this article is that you are forced to say which very good players will not live up to their ADP. That can sometimes be framed as saying a guy isn't good, which couldn't be further from the truth for most of the players below. But it's especially not true for Nick Chubb.
Chubb is currently the No. 8 running back off the board in PPR drafts and that's exactly where he finished last year. So what's the problem? I think that was his ceiling with Kareem Hunt on the roster. In 2019, Chubb was not a top-15 PPR back in the final eight games Hunt played. What was the difference?
The difference is 2020's extreme efficiency. Chubb averaged 5.6 yards per carry last year. While he's always been very efficient, that was a 10% increase over his career mark, and about 10% higher than I'd project any back. Chubb also scored once every 15.8 carries, in his first two seasons in the league he'd scored once every 30.6 attempts.
The boost that increased efficiency provided was about 40.6 Fantasy points or 3.38 Fantasy points per game. Chop that off his total and he falls to 13.93 Fantasy points per game, outside of the top 15 again. Even if you want to give credit to Chubb for the partial game he played, he'd still be at 15.11, outside of the top 12.
I need to be extra clear here, Chubb is phenomenal, I believe he's one of the best pure runners in the league. But if he needs to average 5.6 yards per carry and score once every 15 carries to justify his ADP, the problem is not with him, it's with his ADP and his role. He should be drafted closer to where J.K. Dobbins is. More on Dobbins below.
GB Green Bay • #12
Age: 37 • Experience: 17 yrs.
Yes, I went down this road last year. No, it wasn't particularly enjoyable. And yet, here we are again. The fact is that one of our concerns going into 2021 proved correct; Rodgers' volume did drop considerably. His 526 pass attempts were his lowest total since 2014. He made up for that with a 9.1% touchdown rate and by averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. Using his career rates (6.3%, 7.8 Y.A) you would have expected 15 fewer touchdown passes and 197 fewer passing yards. Shave those 100 Fantasy points off his total and you've got QB10 in 2020, worse on a per-game basis. Of course, it's not quite that simple. I don't even have a big problem with Rodgers being QB7, but he's going closer to QB4 (Lamar Jackson) than he is QB8 (Justin Herbert). As little as Rodgers runs these days, the regression is likely to hit hard. He'll still be a starting Fantasy quarterback, but he won't be a difference maker like he was in 2020.
LAR L.A. Rams • #9
Age: 33 • Experience: 12 yrs.
I fully expected Stafford to be on my Sleepers list when he was dealt to Los Angeles. By July he may be. But not if he's still QB11, ahead of guys like Jalen Hurts, Taysom Hill, and Joe Burrow. Even in Sean McVay's system, I don't believe there's enough upside to justify that. While the half season in 2019 was exciting, Stafford hasn't finished top 10 since 2017 and his recent injury history is concerning. He's a great pick as a QB2 in the double-digit rounds, but don't draft him as your starter.
J.K. Dobbins RB
BAL Baltimore • #27
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie
Oof. As soon as I say "The way the Ravens distribute carries, it's very tough for a running back to finish top 15 in PPR" someone is going to remind me about 2019 Mark Ingram. The only thing I can really say is that Ingram was everyone's favorite regression candidate the following year. Dobbins is absolutely awesome, and the Ravens are the best run offense in the league. But until I see different I expect Dobbins to average 13-14 carries a game with one of the lowest reception totals of any back in the league. He's so talented that he can possibly turn that into a top-12 season in non-PPR. He could in full PPR too if he has Ingram's crazy touchdown luck from 2019. You should not draft him as if that's the expectation.
KC Kansas City • #25
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie
It's not hard to look at Edwards-Helaire's rookie year and think everything was just fine until Le'Veon Bell showed up. And it was, other than the touchdowns, which would have theoretically evened out. But that is ignoring the question of why they added Bell in the first place. Or why Darrel Williams was so involved when Bell proved unworthy. I'd expect both Bell and Darrel Williams to be gone but Damien Williams should return. If he doesn't then I'll be watching closely to see who the Chiefs add. If it's anyone of significance, Edwards-Helaire will remain on this list throughout the offseason.
ATL Atlanta • #18
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Let's just lump Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones in together here. I'm not sold an Arthur Smith offense is going to produce a pair of top-20 wide receivers. I'm not saying the Falcons will be below 500 pass attempts like the Titans were both years that Smith called plays. The Falcons don't have Derrick Henry. But they also don't have Dirk Koetter any longer, so you can kiss 600 pass attempts goodbye as well. In regards to Ridley specifically, we did see A.J. Brown finish top-7 on a per-game basis. And I absolutely think that's possible again, as long as Jones and Hayden Hurst are no more involved than Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. I anticipate it being a little more balanced than that, but I'm still not willing to bet on a 32-year-old Jones.
Julio Jones WR
ATL Atlanta • #11
Age: 32 • Experience: 11 year
Will Fuller WR
MIA Miami • #15
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Will Fuller was finally able to stay relatively healthy in 2020, at least before he was also suspended for the use of performance enhancing substances. Now he heads into the offseason without a team and facing one more game on his six-game suspension. The risks are just too high for me unless he lands in the perfect situation, and it's hard to imagine what that situation would be at this time.
CLE Cleveland • #13
Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Like Fuller, Beckham has had a terrible time staying healthy. Unlike Fuller, Beckham hasn't been particularly good when he has been healthy. He last topped 100 yards in Week 6 of the 2019 season. He averaged just 53 yards per game in his six games with the Browns. This is a run-first offense and Beckham hasn't been special enough to succeed on low volume since he left New York.
GB Green Bay • #85
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Everything I said about Aaron Rodgers applies here, except we don't have the proven track record to fall back on. Tonyan could be a true bust in that he ends up on the waiver wire. He had four or fewer targets in 11 of 18 games last year, including the playoffs. He topped 40 yards once in his final seven games. If you're going to play touchdown roulette at tight end, do it with a streamer, not by drafting Tonyan this high.