I'll be honest, if you have the 10th pick in a 0.5 PPR league, I'm not sure you're going to have a very good time. That doesn't mean you can't draft a winner, it's just that the entire process is going to be stressful. In full PPR this is a great place to try out Zero-RB, but that's a dangerous strategy when catches are worth half as much. The safest approach is probably to build a balanced roster in this spot, though you can't be afraid to reach with those even-round picks if you want to get your guy.
This draft slot probably means that Travis Kelce is your only chance at an elite tight end, and he went seventh in our draft, so I didn't even get that opportunity. The uncertainty of the end and knowing an elite tight end wasn't an option made me more open to securing a top-five quarterback in Round 4. At least that way you know you're ahead of the field at one position.
Here's my team from No. 10 overall
1.10 Joe Mixon, RB, CIN
2.3 Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
3.10 Chris Carson, RB, SEA
4.3 Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
5.10 Kenny Golladay, WR, NYG
6.3 JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT
7.10 Damien Harris, RB, NE
8.3 Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
9.10 Jamaal Williams, RB, DET
10.3 Tre'Quan Smith, WR, NO
11.10 Blake Jarwin, TE, DAL
12.3 Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL
13.10 Henry Ruggs, WR, LV
14.3 Tarik Cohen, RB, CHI
15.10 Amari Rodgers, WR, GB
While I have some concerns about Mixon (more below), I was pretty happy with the first three picks of this draft, and I already explained why I took Jackson in the fourth. After that is where it gets interesting. Golladay is a receiver I like a lot in non-PPR and mostly avoid in PPR, and Smith-Schuster is definitely someone I'm higher on this year than the industry. Both Harris and Samuel have upside and pedigree, but the uncertainty of their roles makes them risky as anything more than flexes.
That 9-10-11 trio may cause some head scratching, but I believe all three players are in line for bigger roles than the community has them projected for. Jarwin in particular should be a top 12 tight end as long as he beats out Dalton Schultz and stays healthy.
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Chris Carson RB
SEA Seattle • #32
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Every year Carson falls into this range and every year he produces like a Round 2 pick. I don't expect this year to be any different. Seattle added nothing in the way of competition for Carson, who has been nearly as good on a per game basis as Joe Mixon over the past three seasons. Carson should see 15-18 touches per game on an above average offense. You don't often find that this late.
Joe Mixon RB
CIN Cincinnati • #28
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.
A lot of people have been burnt by Joe Mixon in the first round the past few years, and that makes them leery in 2021. I'm not one of those people, because I always avoided Mixon this early due to Govani Bernard's involvement. With Bernard off to Tampa Bay, this looks to me like Mixon could finally be the workhorse back he's been drafted to be. But if he stays in a timeshare (or gets hurt again), I'll wish I'd taken Tyreek Hill.
PIT Pittsburgh • #19
Age: 24 • Experience: 5 yrs.
No one wants to draft JuJu Smith-Schuster in the first five rounds this year. This despite a top-20 season that was also the least efficient of his career. I think it's more likely his yards per catch rebounds than his target share decreases. If I'm right, he has top-12 upside and this team is much better than it looks on paper. If I'm wrong, I may be really short at receiver.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.