aaron-rodgers-3-1400.jpg
USATSI

Before we get into Busts 3.0, which is the final version of the players I'll be avoiding this year, I want to commend the Fantasy players who use CBS Sports. At least as of now, heading into the final two weeks of most Fantasy drafts, it appears like you're getting a lot of players at the right price.

In looking at the CBS Sports Average Draft Position compared to some other sites, I like the values of most players you're getting here. Comparing it to the NFC ADP, for example, you guys aren't reaching for players like others might be, which is great. It made it hard to find many bust candidates on CBS.

Jamey's 3.0 Breakouts | Sleepers

Now, obviously, you could be using our rankings to guide you, which is swaying your opinion. That's part of it, clearly. But so far, I can't find many faults with where a lot of players are being selected.

With that in mind, let's look at the players I believe are overpriced on Draft Day, and these guys won't be on most of my Fantasy teams this year.  

Quarterbacks
Projections powered by Sportsline
GB Green Bay • #12
Age: 38 • Experience: 17 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
100th
QB RNK
11th
PROJ PTS
419.5
SOS
7
ADP
47
2020 Stats
PAYDS
4299
RUYDS
149
TD
51
INT
5
FPTS/G
30
It feels like Rodgers is being overvalued a little this season based on what he did last year. He's the No. 5 quarterback on CBS and No. 7 on NFC, and I have him at No. 10 in my rankings. Now, I had Rodgers in this spot last season, and I was clearly wrong. It was great to see him play like he did in 2020 when he was the NFL's MVP, and he finished as the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback at 29.2 points per game. But now he has to produce at that level again, and I'm not sure that's realistic at 37, especially with some changes on the offensive line. Remember, prior to 2020, he averaged 23.0 Fantasy points per game or less for three years in a row. If he's closer to that range, which is still respectable, you'll regret drafting him as a potential top-five Fantasy quarterback. At best, wait for Rodgers with a mid-round pick in all leagues.
Running Backs
Projections powered by Sportsline
DET Detroit • #32
Age: 22 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
37th
RB RNK
19th
PROJ PTS
227.9
SOS
4
ADP
30
2020 Stats
RUYDS
521
REC
46
REYDS
357
TD
10
FPTS/G
14.6
I started this offseason with Swift as a breakout candidate, but I can't put him in that category any more. It's been a slow decline for Swift in my rankings, and the earliest I would draft him is Round 4 in the majority of leagues. He's battled a groin injury for most of training camp, and he could be limited or out in Week 1. That's a bad sign. He's also on a bad team and could lose valuable touches, especially in the passing game, to Jamaal Williams, who is worth targeting as a sleeper. Swift was great to close last season when he scored at least 14 PPR points in four of his final five games. The Lions should have a good offensive line, and I like the coaching staff with Anthony Lynn as the offensive coordinator and Duce Staley as the running backs coach. But teams will surely focus on stopping Swift when he's on the field, and we don't know when that will be. He's not worth the cost of his ADP, which is the middle of Round 3 on both sites.
LV Las Vegas • #28
Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
49th
RB RNK
21st
PROJ PTS
204.1
SOS
13
ADP
38
2020 Stats
RUYDS
1065
REC
33
REYDS
238
TD
12
FPTS/G
15.4
Jacobs has been one of my favorite running backs since the Raiders drafted him in 2019, but I'm not overly optimistic for him this season. For starters, the Raiders adding Kenyan Drake in free agency will hurt Jacobs' workload. Drake is a better receiver than Jacobs, and Drake will certainly get his share of carries. This could be frustrating throughout the season for both running backs if the workload is even. The other concern is the Raiders offensive line, which lost three starters this offseason in right tackle Trent Brown, center Rodney Hudson and right guard Gabe Jackson. Jacobs is being drafted as the No. 19 running back off the board in early Round 4 on CBS and the No. 20 running back on NFC, and the earliest I would draft him is Round 5. While I still believe in his talent, he's no longer someone I plan to target in most of my Fantasy leagues this year.
CLE Cleveland • #27
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
59th
RB RNK
25th
PROJ PTS
194.7
SOS
32
ADP
64
2020 Stats
RUYDS
841
REC
38
REYDS
304
TD
11
FPTS/G
13.7
Hunt proved to be a great handcuff for Nick Chubb in 2020, but Hunt struggled to produce when Chubb was active. Chubb suffered a knee injury in Week 4 against Dallas and missed four games. Including Week 4, Hunt averaged 14.0 PPR points over his next five outings with Chubb sidelined. But after Chubb returned in Week 10 against Houston, Hunt scored more than nine PPR points just three times over his final eight games. He also had 10 total touches or less three times over that span. Hunt can still be a potential flex option in tandem with Chubb, and Hunt is worth drafting with a mid-round pick in all leagues. But he's not someone to target as a Fantasy starter as long as Chubb is healthy heading into Week 1.
PHI Philadelphia • #26
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
54th
RB RNK
23rd
PROJ PTS
194.8
SOS
17
ADP
42
2020 Stats
RUYDS
867
REC
28
REYDS
197
TD
6
FPTS/G
14.2
I like Sanders a lot, but I'm concerned about his upside in what seems to be a crowded running back room for the Eagles this year. Philadelphia drafted Kenneth Gainwell this season and also brought back Jordan Howard, with Boston Scott still on the team. Sanders is clearly headed for a timeshare, with Gainwell looking like the guy on passing downs. It also hasn't helped that Sanders has struggled to catch the ball in practice, according to multiple reports. Eagles running backs coach Jamel Singleton also hinted at a committee this season, saying in The Athletic over the summer that "I think the days of 'he's an every-down back,' that's a little skewed these days because of the speed, because of the contact." Sanders is being drafted in Round 4 as the No. 20 running back based on his ADP on CBS and the No. 19 running back on NFC, and that could be a mistake if he's not featured in Philadelphia's offense. Heading into the season, it feels like Sanders won't be featured very much at all.
Wide Receivers
Projections powered by Sportsline
TB Tampa Bay • #13
Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
46th
WR RNK
21st
PROJ PTS
233.4
SOS
9
ADP
43
2020 Stats
REC
70
TAR
109
REYDS
1006
TD
13
FPTS/G
15.5
Evans is the No. 14 receiver off the board on CBS and NFC, which is too soon. The difference is on CBS, Evans is going in late Round 4, which is fine. On NFC, Evans is being selected in late Round 3, and I wouldn't touch him there. Now, it's hard to bet against Evans. He comes into 2021 with seven seasons in a row with at least 1,000 receiving yards, and he plays in a high-powered offense with a great coach in Bruce Arians and quarterback in Tom Brady. But Evans could see a decline in his Fantasy production if his touchdowns regress this year, and he scored a career-high 13 times in 2020. Keep in mind he's never had consecutive seasons with double digits in touchdowns. He also had a career-low 109 targets last season, and that might not change with a crowded receiving corps, which features Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, as well as O.J. Howard (Achilles) coming back and the addition of Giovani Bernard. Some receivers being drafted after Evans that I'd rather have include Amari Cooper, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett, among others. I also would rather draft Godwin ahead of Evans in PPR, and Godwin is the No. 19 receiver being selected on CBS (No. 16 on NFC). Evans will be a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver, but this ADP is too high.
TEN Tennessee • #2
Age: 32 • Experience: 11 year
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
42nd
WR RNK
20th
PROJ PTS
230.6
SOS
6
ADP
56
2020 Stats
REC
51
TAR
68
REYDS
771
TD
3
FPTS/G
16.2
The ADP for Jones on CBS is perfect as the No. 20 receiver in Round 5. But on NFC, Jones remains a Round 4 selection, and I'm worried about his production this season going from Atlanta to Tennessee. Jones is still going to be good, but I'm not sure he's still going to be great. It's hard to expect the Titans to support two high-end Fantasy receivers with A.J. Brown and Jones unless the offense dramatically changes, and Tennessee was No. 30 in pass attempts last season with 485. By comparison, Atlanta was No. 4 in pass attempts with 628. Jones also has averaged just shy of 10 targets per game for his career. The No. 2 receiver for the Titans last year, Corey Davis, averaged 6.6 targets per game. Now, you don't add Jones without the expectation to use him more than Davis. And we'll see if new offensive coordinator Todd Downing plans to throw the ball more than Arthur Smith did. You also have to be a little concerned about Jones, 32, being limited to just nine games last season due to injury, and he's missed nearly all of August with a leg injury. I like Jones as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver, but keep your expectations in check now that he's with the Titans this year.
NYG N.Y. Giants • #19
Age: 28 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
72nd
WR RNK
31st
PROJ PTS
217
SOS
11
ADP
74
2020 Stats
REC
20
TAR
32
REYDS
338
TD
2
FPTS/G
13.2
Golladay's ADP on NFC puts him in Round 6, and it's hard to draft him there. I'm even leery of drafting Golladay in Round 7, which is his CBS ADP. I hope I'm wrong on Golladay because I love him as a player, but I don't love him with the Giants. While the Giants are counting on him to be a star after signing him to a four-year, $72 million deal, including $40 million in guarantees, Fantasy managers are counting on Daniel Jones to help make Golladay successful. And that's risky. There also are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense with the addition of first-round rookie Kadarius Toney joining Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley. The Giants also will be a run-first team now that Barkley (knee) is back at 100 percent. Golladay will have plenty of positive moments, but I'm concerned about him remaining a high-end Fantasy option. And you also have to worry about his injury risk since he's missed over three weeks of training camp with a hamstring injury. At best, Golladay enters the season as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues.
LAR L.A. Rams • #3
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
84th
WR RNK
38th
PROJ PTS
202.7
SOS
10
ADP
84
2020 Stats
REC
23
TAR
43
REYDS
319
TD
4
FPTS/G
12.4
I have no problem taking a chance on Beckham at his price on CBS, which is Round 8. You can draft him there and hope he's 100 percent recovered from last year's torn ACL, and he's a solid No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues. But I'm totally out on Beckham if I have to draft him in Round 6 based on his NFC ADP. He's being drafted there as the No. 28 receiver off the board, which is just too expensive. For starters, we don't know how he'll do coming off the injury, but the reports have been positive. Let's say he's healthy, but then you still have to contend with his production during his time with the Browns. He averaged 12.5 PPR points in 2019 and 13.8 PPR points in the six healthy games he played in 2020. That's respectable, but his production last year was boosted by a 38-point performance in Week 4 at Dallas. The Browns don't project to be a high-volume passing attack -- Cleveland was No. 30 in attempts in 2020 -- and Beckham has to share targets with Jarvis Landy, Austin Hooper and the running backs. It feels like if you're drafting Beckham before Round 7, it's because you're hoping for him to play like he did with the Giants again. It's doubtful that happens with the Browns this year, and look for him in Round 8 or later.
SF San Francisco • #19
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
101st
WR RNK
49th
PROJ PTS
204.4
SOS
4
ADP
95
2020 Stats
REC
33
TAR
44
REYDS
391
TD
1
FPTS/G
11.5
On CBS, Samuel's ADP is Round 9, and I'm fine with him in that range. But on NFC, Samuel is being drafted in Round 7 as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, and I wouldn't trust him at that value. The 49ers will use Samuel as their No. 3 option in the passing game at best behind George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel had a rough season in 2020 when he was limited to seven games due to injury. He also saw his production dip from 12.5 PPR points per game in 2019 to 11.4 PPR points last year. It's hard to expect the 49ers to support three top-tier Fantasy options in this run-based offense, and I expect Kittle and Aiyuk to be the featured options in the passing game. Maybe Samuel can score three rushing touchdowns again like he did as a rookie, but I don't think that's realistic. I prefer Samuel as a No. 4 Fantasy receiver, and I wouldn't draft him before Round 10. He's clearly going ahead of that, especially on NFC, and that makes him a bust candidate for 2021.
Tight Ends
Projections powered by Sportsline
PHI Philadelphia • #88
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
112th
TE RNK
10th
PROJ PTS
155.3
SOS
21
ADP
91
2020 Stats
REC
46
TAR
65
REYDS
524
TD
3
FPTS/G
10.6
I'm going to put an asterisk on this one because I'm still hopeful the Eagles find a way to move Zach Ertz before Week 1, but it's looking less likely that Goedert will be a solo act as the lead tight end in Philadelphia this year. He still has the chance to be productive in tandem with Ertz, and both tight ends were top 10 Fantasy options in PPR in 2019 (Ertz finished fourth and Goedert was 10th). But I'm not sure Jalen Hurts will support Goedert and Ertz in that capacity, which makes drafting Goedert at his current ADP a risk. He's the No. 8 tight end off the board on CBS and NFC, and I would only draft him as a borderline starter as of now. You can also argue that Ertz, who is the No. 20 tight end on CBS and No. 21 on NFC, is the better value pick given the cost. We'll see what happens over the next two weeks, but if Ertz is on the field for the Eagles in Week 1, Goedert shouldn't be trusted as a starting Fantasy option in most leagues.
GB Green Bay • #85
Age: 27 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
OVERALL RNK
119th
TE RNK
10th
PROJ PTS
144.3
SOS
11
ADP
89
2020 Stats
REC
52
TAR
59
REYDS
586
TD
11
FPTS/G
11
Tonyan was great for Fantasy managers in 2020 when he finished as the No. 4 PPR tight end. He had 52 catches for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns, but it's highly doubtful he comes close to finding the end zone that much again this year, especially since he had just 59 targets. That number was No. 24 among tight ends in 2020 -- behind guys like Gerald Everett (62) and Tyler Eifert (60). Fantasy managers must be hoping for a repeat performance since Tonyan's ADP on CBS is the No. 11 tight end off the board, and he's No. 10 on NFC. While he should still remain the starting tight end for the Packers, the addition of Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers will likely limit any uptick in targets for Tonyan this year. Maybe he's still among the league leaders in touchdowns at the position, but if he falls below eight and doesn't see an increase in catches and yards then he could be a total dud. I don't see myself drafting Tonyan often this season.

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.