They let Russ cook, and for the first two months, it was magical -- they averaged 34.3 points per game and he had 28 touchdowns in the first eight games. But the passing game faded down the stretch, and Wilson reportedly asked for a trade in the offseason. Do we look back at the first half of 2020 as the high point?
Record: 12 - 4 (4)
PPG: 28.7 (8)
YPG: 369.5 (17)
Pass YPG: 246.3 (16)
Rush YPG: 123.2 (12)
PAPG: 35.2 (17)
RAPG: 25.7 (17)
2020 Fantasy finishes
Number to know: 4.5
That's how much the Seahawks pass attempts per game average dropped from the first eight games to the last eight. Partially, that was just because the defense played better -- they allowed 30-plus points in five of their first eight games and then didn't allow another 30-point effort. Their situation-neutral (scored within seven points either way) pass rate actually held steady at 60% over the last two months, they just weren't in situations where they had to throw as much. Maybe the concerns about Wilson's second-half slump are being overstated? On the other hand, Wilson really did play poorly over the final nine games (including an ugly playoff performance), and Pete Carroll did say he wants to run the ball more -- something that the firing of Brian Schottenheimer may be related to. It may not matter too much because this offense is so concentrated in the hands of so few Fantasy relevant players, but it could matter at the margins.
88 carries, 21 RB targets, 47 WR targets, 77 TE targets
Chris Towers' projections
|QB||Russell Wilson||PA: 547, YD: 4269, TD: 35, INT: 12; RUSH -- ATT: 71, YD: 394, TD: 3|
|RB||Chris Carson||CAR: 262, YD: 1182, TD: 8; TAR: 55, REC: 44, YD: 333, TD: 3|
|RB||Rashaad Penny||CAR: 115, YD: 505, TD: 4; TAR: 22, REC: 15, YD: 109, TD: 1|
|WR||Tyler Lockett||TAR: 126, REC: 88, YD: 1078, TD: 8|
|WR||DK Metcalf||TAR: 124, REC: 75, YD: 1207, TD: 10|
|WR||D'Wayne Eskridge||TAR: 59, REC: 35, YD: 524, TD: 5|
|TE||Gerald Everett||TAR: 82, REC: 62, YD: 739, TD: 4|
Will they go back to being conservative?
If Wilson is the QB, it shouldn't matter much -- he's been a must-start Fantasy QB on fewer than 500 pass attempts, and his deep-ball dominance should keep Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf happy. However, the firing of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer might represent Pete Carroll's desire to get back to pounding the ball, which would be great news for Chris Carson but would limit the upside of what should be an elite passing game.
Fantasy Football Today Newsletter
Know What Your Friends Don't
Get tips, advice and news to win your league - all from the FFT podcast team.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
There was an error processing your subscription.
One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
We've seen so little from Penny at this point that it's hard to know whether he's any good at all. He played just three games last year after recovering from a torn ACL, and has just 161 carries in his three seasons. He's been effective when given work, averaging 80.6 yards in the five games where he's had at least 10 carries with four touchdowns. Whether he still has the explosiveness after his injury is an open question, but if he is healthy and the primary backup to Chris Carson, Penny could be a very, very valuable lottery ticket.
The thing about Seattle's offense is there isn't usually much room for someone to breakout. However, Everett is a good athlete who could mesh well with Wilson's efficient, push-it-down-the-field approach to passing. I have Everett ranked 13th at tight end, and while that's pretty aggressive, working with Wilson could help him have a career year. I don't want him as a starter in a standard league, but in a tight-end premium or deeper league, Everett is a fine player to wait for, because he could be the No. 3 target for Wilson.
Wilson was more productive as a rusher in 2020 than he had been since 2018, but that was (somewhat ironically) tied to the Seahawks' newfound willingness to throw the ball. So, a return to a more conservative offense could actually lead to fewer rushing opportunities -- just 30 of Wilson's rushes in 2020 were not scrambles. If Wilson dips back down to the 350-yard range as a runner -- where he'd been in 2018 and 2019 -- that right there lowers his floor and ceiling as a Fantasy player. He's usually efficient enough to be an elite quarterback, but he was just QB10 (QB16 per game) in 2018. I still like Wilson as a top-six QB, but if I have to pick a bust here, he's probably the one, given how quarterback prices are being inflated in drafts this season.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.