It's always fun to be on social media when a major trade goes down in the NFL, and Twitter was no exception when the Russell Wilson trade was announced. From the Seahawks' hilarious recollection of Tom Hanks in Cast Away to the dozens of <Jerry Jeudy followed by fire emojis> tweets, everyone had something to say.
Before we had details, there was also plenty of excitement for Noah Fant. Then we found out Fant was headed to Seattle as part of the deal. And, immediately, it was Albert Okwuegbunam season.
The 23-year-old Bronco went from a backup option catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock to the No. 1 tight end for a future Hall of Famer. He has an outstanding size/speed combination when he's healthy and has caught 80% of his targets despite spotty quarterback play. He immediately vaulted ahead of Fant in my tight end projections.
I do think this is a good time to define how I'm qualifying sleepers, for this way-too-early version. Since there isn't very reliable ADP this early, I'm using the current Fantasy Pros expert consensus rankings. I bring that up because Okwuegbunam is currently TE27 there. I don't know for sure where he'll land when everyone gets their rankings updated, but he's in the TE12 range for me. It's possible I'm calling him a breakout in June and then, if ADP gets out of control, a bust by August.
- Chris' 1.0 Series: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts
- Dave's 1.0 series: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts
- Jamey's 1.0 series: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts
- Heath's 1.0 series: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts
For now all you need to know is that you should not trust the ADP in the draft room if you're looking for him in a Best Ball draft. Here are five more early sleepers who are currently outside of the top 120 in the consensus rankings:
Jones is still just 25 years old and he's averaged 4.5 yards per carry over 488 career carries. While he's not going to give you much in the way of the passing game, he could absolutely be the lead rusher in Kansas City. I would expect Clyde Edwards-Healire to handle most of the passing downs, but Jones could be in line for 200+ carries and short-yardage work on one of the best offenses in football.
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Alvin Kamara is likely to find his place on my bust list for the same reason Ingram is here. They're being ranked as if Ingram has already been cut and Kamara has little risk of a long suspension. I'm not sure either is true, especially if the video the police saw before they charged Kamara becomes public. Ingram played two games without Kamara last season and topped 100 yards in both while scoring 38.3 PPR Fantasy points. If Ingram is on the roster Week 1 and Kamara is suspended, Ingram is a must-start running back.
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Drake missed the final five games of 2021, but he should be healthy for the start of the 2022 season. He had three games with at least six targets in his first year in Las Vegas and has the potential for a lot more under Josh McDaniels. The Raiders new head coach has traditionally split the roles in the backfield between an early downs rusher and James White, or a pass-catching back. If Drake earns that pass-catching role for the Raiders and stays healthy, he has the upside to be a top 20 PPR running back. His current consensus ranking in RB72.
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Julio Jones is 33 years old and just missed nearly half of the Titans' games in 2021. I don't even have him in my top 48 at receiver. But there is reason to hope he strongly outperforms his WR62 consensus ranking. For one thing, he averaged 9.0 yards per target last year, which is still elite. He also averaged 12.2 FPPG in the five games he played at least two thirds of the snaps. If he's able to stay healthy, he may very well have enough in the tank to give you one more season as a Fantasy starter. And he's basically free in drafts right now. Can you even imagine what would happen to his ADP if he signed with the Packers?
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When Corey Davis and Zach Wilson were both healthy in 2021, Davis was a boom/bust No. 2 wide receiver, who averaged 13.8 PPR FPPG in his first six outings. Injuries derailed his season and Elijah Moore had a nice run of his own, but their current expert rankings don't reflect that reality at all. Moore is currently WR24 in the rankings while Davis sits at 56. I actually had Davis ahead of Moore in my initial projections, but I would draft Moore higher because of upside. They just shouldn't be anywhere near this far apart.
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