There was a time earlier in my career when I really enjoyed putting together a busts list. Telling everyone else why they were wrong about highly drafted players sounded pretty funny. But the longer I've done this job, the more I have come to realize that the only way players qualify as busts is if there are a bunch of reasons to like them a lot more than I do. It's not actually that fun to say that really good players are going to be bad at least partially because they might be awesome.
Trevor Lawrence could certainly be awesome. But there are at least a dozen quarterbacks who could be awesome this year, arguably a handful who are being ranked below Lawrence who I think are more likely to be awesome. I'd argue Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Deshaun Watson have given us far more reason to believe they have elite upside. As long as Anthony Richardson starts Week 1, I'd add him to the group. Same for Kyler Murray.
The primary NFL evidence for Lawrence's upside is Week 10-15 last year when he threw for 1,445 yards and 13 TDs in a five-game stretch. That five-game heater produced 28.9 FPPG, but it would be completely unfair to expect Lawrence to duplicate those rates over a full season. All good quarterbacks have hot stretches, but even if he did, Lawrence still may not be a top-three QB in 2023. All the quarterbacks in the previous paragraph, other than Richardson, have shown more upside for at least as long and all have better mean projections as well.
While we're on QBs, in two quarterback leagues add Derek Carr to the bust list. The Saints have been a run-heavy team for three straight seasons and with a defensive head coach in the worst division in football, I wouldn't expect that to change this year. Carr is not efficient enough to provide value as a passer in a low-volume attack and he has one of the lowest rushing projections in the league. Carr has never been a high touchdown producer and Taysom Hill will help make sure that remains true. I don't view Carr as a starter in a two-QB league.
Here are my non-QB busts:
Walker ranked in the top 20 on NFL running backs in yards before contact per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and broken tackles per attempt; 12.7% of his rushes went for at least 10 yards, which ranked ninth among backs with at least 100 attempts. So why did the Seahawks go draft Zach Charbonnet in Round 2? Two reasons, I suspect. 23.7% of Walker's rush attempts last year went for zero or negative yards, and only James Robinson had a worse rate. These types of numbers don't generally lead to goal-line carries, which I would expect to go to the 220-pound Charbonnet. The rookie also has a better pass-catching profile. Walker will have a hard time justifying his RB17 ranking without many catches or touchdowns.
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Swift is now RB25 in the consensus rankings, with a late fifth round grade. As a runner he has some of the profile of Walker, although not quite to those extremes. But where he made hay the past two years in Detroit was in the passing game. Unless Philadelphia completely changes its offense, I'm not sure that will matter. The Eagles had a 12.08% RB target rate last year, lowest in the NFL. It makes sense, if you have the choice between A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, or Dallas Goedert, why would you draw up passes to the back? And it's not like Jalen Hurts is going to check down if no one is open; he's taking off himself. Swift will share early downs with Rashaad Penny and one of them could have a good stretch when the other gets hurt, but there's no guarantee that will be Penny, not Swift.
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I love Hall's talent. He's my Dynasty RB3. but I'm just not prepared to bet a Round 2 pick on a guy coming off an ACL injury after what we've seen recently from backs in their first year off the injury. Couple the injury with the arrival of Nathaniel Hackett, and a committee seems very likely. Those intentions would make sense of the team's flirtation with Dalvin Cook in free agency. Even if Cook doesn't go to New York, I expect Michael Carter or Israel Abanikanda to have an A.J. Dillon-sized role in New York in 2023.
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Pacheco is ranked at RB27, just inside Round 6 in consensus rankings. It's possible he pays off at that cost, but like Walker, I wouldn't expect Pacheco to do much in the passing game and the Chiefs just don't hand it off to a running back in a traditional manner inside the 5 very often. Unlike Walker, Pacheco wasn't particularly explosive and doesn't have the same draft capital. Betting against Day 3 backs coming off of a Year 1 surprise has been an excellent bet the past five years. I'm doing it again with Pacheco.
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The lazy thing to say here is I am not using an early Round 2 pick on a Bill Belichick running back. It's also true. Stevenson's main value last year was that the Patriots designed the third-most RB screens in the NFL and also checked down at a very high rate. The problem is that those plays didn't work, with Stevenson averaging an abysmal 4.8 yards per target. Seven RBs have seen at least 80 targets in a season and averaged less than 5 yards per target in the past 30 years. All of them lost targets the next year with the majority losing at least 25. With a new offensive coordinator, Stevenson could lose even more. If Dalvin Cook lands in New England, Stevenson's consensus ranking will plummet, but it shouldn't be this high in the first place.
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Godwin is a star in his prime, but this situation could not be much worse. I expect the Buccaneers will throw at least 150 fewer passes in 2023 than they have the past two years and those passes will be coming from either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. This means a 20% reduction in targets for Godwin with a decrease in efficiency that may be near as big. HIs consensus ranking is WR18 in Round 4, and I view him as more of a mid-range WR3 who I wouldn't draft before Round 6.
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One thing I agree with the consensus on is that Allen should go a round before Godwin, I'm just two rounds lower than consensus on both. Allen's first concern is obvious; he's 31 years old and missed seven games due to injury last year. But I do expect a small decrease in volume due to Kellen Moore's downfield approach and the arrival of Quentin Johnston. And a big part of Allen's value has been that he has earned 9-10 targets per game and has caught two-thirds of them. He's better in full PPR, but even there I wouldn't take him before Round 5.
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Pittman is ranked as WR26 worth an early Round 6 pick. The only way I see him getting there is if Gardner Minshew starts most of the year for the Colts. If Indianapolis goes with Anthony Richardson out of the gate, I would expect an extremely run-heavy offense and a very limited passing attack in Year 1. Also, I expect Indianapolis to go with Richardson out of the gate. I'm avoiding all Colts pass catchers.
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Lockett has been underrated for so long, this feels foolish. It also feels like a betrayal because I have been one of the biggest Lockett backers over the past eight years. But he turns 31 in September and the team just drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is simply too good to ignore. Smith-Njigba was the top performer in college on a team with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. While I don't expect him to lead Seattle in receiving this year, he'll put a dent in the production of both Lockett and DK Metcalf. And I wouldn't bet against JSN being the team's WR1 by season's end.
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So the theme is mostly running backs and old guys, huh? Waller will also turn 31 in September and has missed 14 games due to injury in the past two seasons. He'll be on a new team with a quarterback who has never thrown for even 235 yards per game in a season and hasn't thrown more than 15 touchdown passes in a year since 2019. In last year's breakout season, Daniel Jones averaged 200.3 passing yards per game and threw 15 touchdowns. I just do not want to spend a Round 6 pick on an old player who has battled injuries and now finds himself in this situation. Give me Pat Freiermuth or David Njoku instead.
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