We used to do a series here at CBS called "everyone is a bust" in which we had to make the bust case for every player in Fantasy. It wasn't that fun, as you might imagine. But looking at current ADP, it would be a much easier exercise if we just focused on the quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen all have an ADP in the top 13 picks. I wouldn't take any of them before pick 18. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert are all being picked in the top 30 picks, Jackson is the only one I would take before pick 50. Trevor Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers are all going at least 20 picks before I would take them as well. You get the idea.
Some of this may be impacted by Superflex or Two-QB leagues, but I also know there are a lot of "home" leagues that are going to see three QBs go in the first round...at least. While we have come around to the idea that elite QBs should go earlier than we've suggested in the past, we also think it's a big mistake to pass up Travis Kelce and the elite running backs and wide receivers for a QB.
So yes, at quarterback, everyone is a bust. Well, almost everyone. Justin FIelds, Tua Tagoavailoa, and Anthony Richardson are three QBs in being drafted in the first 10 rounds that are actually being drafted as good values as well. They all possess elite upside and, if you're worried about their floors, you can just pair them with guys like Daniel Jones (Round 10) or Geno Smith (Round 11).
Here are eight more busts to avoid on Draft Day:
By overall CBS ADP, it is hard to call any WR a bust. They are all going later than they are on other sites. So I'm just looking at where guys are being drafted at WR. Cooper is being drafted as WR17 ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, D.J. Moore, Christian Watson, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk, and Drake London. I would rather have all of those guys. Elijah Moore is supposed to take more targets than any other receiver in Cleveland did last year and Kevin Stefanski has never run a pass-heavy offense. I'm not sure there's enough volume for Cooper to justify his cost, especially with recent reports about Deshaun Watson's struggles in camp.
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Metcalf is being selected one spot (at wide receiver) behind Cooper and eight spots higher than I would like to take him. He has had a hard enough time separating from Tyler Lockett, but now that the team has added Jaxon Smith-Njigba I'm concerned we will never see Metcalf as a true alpha No. 1 wide receiver. I wouldn't draft Metcalf until at least Round 5 and I wouldn't draft him as a top-24 WR in full PPR.
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Pickens is being drafted a full round before Gabe Davis despite being in a very similar situation, other than the fact that his QB is Kenny Pickett and not Josh Allen. Diontae Johnson is the clear No. 1 wide receiver on this team and should have at least 40 more targets than Pickens. But also, Pat Freiermuth saw 14 more targets than Pickens in 2022 despite the fact that he played one fewer game. I like Pickens better in non-PPR, and he's fun in best ball, but his profile as a downfield WR who does not get separation simply does not profile well in any format where catches count.
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Listen, nobody wants to do this. But when there is a 29-year-old running back with 1,877 career touches being drafted in the first round, we don't have a choice. The Titans offensive line may be the worst in the NFL, and it is hard to know what to expect from Ryan Tannehill. If Tannehill is OK, it may be that the acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins means the Titans will throw more. The truth is, Henry has bucked just about every trend we know of for running backs. But there is too much age and injury risk to draft him in Round 1. We are more comfortable with him at the two-three turn.
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Harris is the rare back-to-back bust pick from me. Well, maybe not that rare, I did it with Kyle Pitts in 2021 and 2022 as well. Harris has been wildly inefficient as both a runner and a pass catcher in his first two seasons in the league, averaging 3.9 yards per carry and just 4.7 yards per target. He lost most of the pass-catching role to Jaylen Warren last year and he may lose carries this year if he doesn't see an efficiency spike. The track record for backs to touch the ball as much as he has and produce as little as he has in their first two years in the league is very concerning.
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Hall is off the PUP, and his ADP is still adjusting to the Dalvin Cook signing, but it's going to settle in Round 4 and that is just too early for me. The presence of Cook significantly limits Hall's upside and his floor is already low because of the history of running backs in Year 1 after their ACL injury. If everything goes right, I think you're getting a borderline No. 1 in the second half of the season, but that kind of upside isn't worth the risk that Hall is 1B to Dalvin Cook, or worse, reinjured like J.K. Dobbins was last year.
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Kittle is a superstar talent, so like Henry, this isn't a fun case to make. But when Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are all healthy, I fully expect Kittle to be the fourth option in a low-volume pass offense that may suffer from subpar quarterback play. Kittle produced below 40 yards in nine of his last 13 games in 2022, including the playoffs.
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I believe Waller should be the No. 1 target in New York, but I am concerned about just about everything else. He turns 31 in September, he has missed 14 games the past two years, his new quarterback has only topped 15 pass touchdowns once in his career, and Waller himself has only scored more than 3 touchdowns once. The past two seasons the No. 1 target earner on the Giants has seen 76 targets. If things go well for them, they'll be a low-volume pass offense again, so I'm not sure there is huge upside even when Waller is healthy.
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