One thing that comes along with being the projections guy is being the guy who is more often expressing hesitation on rookie breakouts. It's not the most fun thing, especially when we're talking about elite prospects like Kyle Pitts, Trevor Lawrence, Ja'Marr Chase, or Bijan Robinson. And this year that's still the case, as I am lower than consensus on both Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, the only two rookies being selected in the first five rounds of most one-quarterback drafts. But don't take that to mean I'm, avoiding all of the rookies in redraft this year. Four of them made my top-12 sleepers for Sleepers 2.0.
For this edition, I'm comparing my rankings to industry consensus, because I think that's closer to what ADP will be than what current ADP, which is heavily influenced by Best Ball and High Stakes contests at this time of year. When I do 3.0 in August, we'll start using ADP. According the consensus rankings, Anthony Richardson is being ranked as QB18, at pick 137 overall. He is my No. 9 QB, and I start looking for him at the end of Round 8.
One thing that will cause a massive shift in his ranking and ADP will be how soon Richardson wins the job. Gardner Minshew is one of the best backup QBs in the league, but I'm not expecting he'll hold Richardson off for long. That's because Shane Steichen, Richardson's new coach, is the same guy who helped develop Jalen Hurts and called plays for the Eagles the past two seasons. Hurts averaged 10 carries per game under Steichen and whether Richardson is ready as a passer or not, we have every reason to expect he'll be at least as good as Hurts as a rusher -- most likely better. Richardson is the best athlete who has ever tested at the NFL combine as a quarterback.
If Richardson starts Week 1 and he's terrible as a passer, you can still expect low-end QB1 production with enormous spike weeks, just like we got from Justin Fields last year. But if Richardson makes strides as a passer and becomes even average by mid-season, he'll have QB1 overall upside down the stretch. The best case for his draft value would be if Minshew could make this a competition all the way until the end, maybe even start Week 1. I would expect Richardson will sneak into the top-12 in ADP if he's announced the starter early. I'd still be comfortable drafting him there.
Zay Flowers is my second-favorite sleeper. Flowers was the 22nd pick in the NFL Draft and will join Todd Monken's new offense in Baltimore. The rookie possesses blazing 4.4 speed and is a route-running technician. While we expect Mark Andrews to remain the alpha, Flowers' other competition for targets is Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman, neither of whom has shown the ability to stay healthy recently. I think it's possible Flowers is the No. 1 WR in this offense even without an injury and if Monken throws it as often as we expect there could be room for a top-24 WR alongside Andrews. Flowers is WR57 and No. 136 overall, I like him as a Round 8 pick.
De'Von Achane deserves a bit of an asterisk here. Until Dalvin Cook signs somewhere, there remains risk that he'll sign in Miami, crushing Achane's value. But as of right now, Achane only needs to beat out Raheem Moster and Jeff Wilson, or wait until they get hurt. Right now I have him as a Round 10 pick, his consensus ranking is a round later, but he could climb fast if he starts getting buzz in training camp and Cook signs elsewhere. Achane averaged 6.4 yards per carry in three seasons at Texas A&M and could put up monster efficiency in Mike McDaniel's offense.
My final rookie sleeper is Israel Abanikanda, and he's a deep sleeper according to consensus rankings, which have him ranked at 265th overall, RB73. While there is some chance the Jets sign Cook, even their flirtation with him indicates a couple of things. One, Breece Hall might not be himself early in the year. Two, Nathaniel Hackett may be planning a 1A/1B committee like he had in Green Bay and Denver. I expect Abanikanda to beat out Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight to win the RB2 job early in the year. That role should be worth 10-12 touches per game in an offense that we expect to be well above average.
Here are my favorite non-rookie sleepers:
Howell is the favorite to beat out Jacoby Brissett and start for the Commanders this year. There's immense upside in this situation due to the presence of Eric Bienemy, Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson. There's also sneaky rushing upside for Howell, who ran for 35 yards in his only start last year and 828 adds and 11 TDs in his final season at North Carolina. If everything goes right, Howell could be a one-QB starter by season's end.
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Once Javonte Williams is 100% we expect Perine to be the 1B in the Denver backfield. As J.K. Dobbins showed us last year, we shouldn't bank on that being Week 1, but even if it was I think Perine would be worth his consensus ranking. Williams has never been a feature back and I don't expect the Broncos will choose to try it for the first time in his first year off an ACL tear. If Williams misses time, Perine could be a league winner. He averaged 23.6 FPPG in the three games that he played more than half of the snaps last year.
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Collins is entering Year 3, a common breakout year for wide receivers and got a big QB upgrade when the team drafted C.J. Stroud. He'll face competition from John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell, but Collins is also the odds-on favorite to lead the team in targets this year. The expectation should be that he is a borderline No. 3 WR.
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Rondale Moore played seven full games last year and averaged 12.6 PPG FPPG despite scoring just one touchdown. The new offense may not be as favorable to him, but his consensus ranking is WR50, so it's not as if you have to bet on him doing what he did last year. If he can stay healthy he is going to beat his WR ADP by at least 10 spots.
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Remember Romeo Doubs' spectacular camp as a rookie? A lot of those plays came with Jordan Love. Love has been raving about Doubs this summer and it's possible they are closer in targets than their consensus ranking would suggest. Doubs has a path to 120-plus targets and a top-36 season even if Watson plays every game.
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Like Abanikanda and Achane, Skyy Moore could see his ranking plummet if a certain veteran chooses to play in Kansas City. But as of now, it is a wide-open path for targets in Kansas City and I'm willing to give the second-year wideout a pass on 2022 because of the complexity of Andy Reid's offense and Moore's inexperience at the position. He could be one Kadarius Toney injury away from leaping into the top 30 at wide receiver.
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Remember Irv Smith? He was a tight end sleeper fixture for a couple of years. He may finally wake up. One of the undercover stories of the offseason is that Smith appears to be the No. 1 tight end for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. That role has been worth five targets per game in the past, which is more than enough to sustain a top-12 tight end in an elite offense. Smith is free in most leagues right now.
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From the current Bengals tight end, to the former. Hurst landed in Carolina on a team that has TE-friendly Frank Reich at coach and a whole bunch of question marks at wide receiver. One of the things to look for in a deep sleeper at tight end is someone who could finish first or second on their team in targets. The Panthers situation is one that could lead to that.
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