2023 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: What to expect from Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall in new-look Jets backfield

Adding the former Vikings star Cook shakes up the Jets' RB room

For most of training camp, we didn't really know what to expect from the Jets running back room, but over a span of about 15 hours Monday and Tuesday, we got a lot of clarity all at once. First, the Jets finally agreed to a one-year deal with former Vikings running back Dalvin Cook on Monday evening, and then Tuesday they activated second-year back Breece Hall from the Physically Unable to Perform list, clearing his way to return from the torn ACL that cut short his promising rookie season. 

Of course, that clarity brings plenty of questions along with it: Who will be the Jets lead RB? Will they even have a lead RB? And, most importantly for our purposes, where should Fantasy Football players draft Cook and Hall? 

Those questions are all intertwined, and there isn't one easy answer to any of them. For example: Who will be the Jets lead RB? Well, it's probably a different answer at different points in the season.

I'd bet on Cook being the top option when the season opens up, because the Jets will likely work Hall back in relatively slowly coming back from the ACL surgery. Hall will be about 10 and a half months removed from the injury when the Jets face the Bills in Week 1, and with him being cleared to practice this week, he should be ready for that game, as we've expected all along. However, the Jets will need to be careful about not overworking him early and risking any kind of setback; with Cook around, they should have the luxury to do so.

There is one complicating factor there, however: Cook is coming back from surgery of his own. He's dealt with shoulder injuries dating back to college, and he had surgery in February to repair a torn labrum. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Monday that Cook is "still at least a week away from being able to practice." 

Assuming he gets into camp early next week, that would give him three weeks before the Jets' first game to get up to speed. That should be easier than it is for Hall, given the nature of their injuries, but it's reason to think Cook may not be 100% ready to be a lead back by Week 1.

That isn't a great thing for Cook's chances of establishing himself as the clear lead back. At this point in their careers, I'd bet on a fully healthy Hall being the better player than Cook, who took a big step backwards in per-carry efficiency in 2022. But, if Cook is ready for 15-plus touches before Hall, he could still have enough left in the tank to take advantage of a good situation and entrench himself as the lead back. If he can't do that, Hall's path to emerging as the 1A here look a lot better.

And that's what I'm betting will happen eventually. I don't expect it to be immediately – I'd probably project something like 8-10 touches for Hall in Week 1, for example – but eventually, he'll simply be too explosive to leave off the field. In a best-case scenario, you're looking at a 2022 Dallas Cowboys situation, where Cook takes on the grinding, between-the-tackles, and short-yardage work while Hall is the explosive playmaker who makes the most of the split backfield. 

But there's no guarantee it works out that way. Many RBs coming back from a torn ACL don't get back to their full, pre-injury self until the year after their return, so Hall might just not be the same guy he was last season. Or, he might go the J.K. Dobbins route, returning from the injury but suffering a setback that makes it tough to ever live up to his potential. 

That's the path to must-start status for Cook,. Even if he isn't the player he once was – he was bottom five in Rushes Over Expected rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats in 2022 – he's a dependable, three-down player who the coaching staff knows they can rely on in any situation. He might not be a superstar, but if Hall isn't ready to be one, the Jets know they can fall back on Cook. That's why they picked him up. 

So Hall is probably the higher-upside option in this backfield, because he showed the kind of big-play ability in both the receiving and running games last season that make for elite Fantasy options. In an ideal world, he's the Aaron Jones analog alongside Aaron Rodgers, with Cook filling the AJ Dillon role. It might take a month for him to get there, but if you're chasing upside in the Jets backfield, I still think it's found with Hall.

That's not to say Cook doesn't have upside; he just probably needs something to go wrong with Hall to get there. But anyone who could be a three-down back in a good offense has top-12 RB upside, and there's a path to 250-plus carries and 60 targets for Cook. The likeliest outcome is well short of that, but there's a path there. 

I'd take Hall ahead of Cook, but I'm not ranking them far apart. I've got Hall as my RB25, while Cook is RB30. That means I'm looking for Hall in the fifth round, while Cook is more like a seventh-round pick. I'll probably end up drafting more of Cook, as either an RB2 in a Hero-RB build or if I go with a zero-RB approach. But Hall is probably more likely to have a stretch where he's a legitimate difference-making, top-five type back. 

Of course, there's also the downside possibility, where this ends up a muddled mess and the Jets offense isn't very good. I'm optimistic, on the whole, but their quarterback will turn 40 this year, and their offensive coordinator was the architect of the disastrous 2022 Broncos season, so it's not a slam dunk. If that were to be the case, you'd probably see neither Hall nor Cook viewed as a must-start Fantasy RB. 

One other additional wrinkle to consider is what kind of effect this has on the rest of the Jets RBs. They added rookie Israel Abanikanda with a fifth-round pick in this year's NFL Draft, so you've gotta think his spot on the roster is safe. That probably leaves one of Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight on the outside looking in when final roster cuts go down. Could Carter end up a trade candidate now that he's a luxury? He's been a decent backup who can handle passing downs pretty well, and that could make him a nice fit on a team like the Vikings or Cowboys, who seem like obvious landing spots for a decent young running back if they look to move him. 

There may be further dominoes left to fall from this Cook signing.