The 2023 NFL Draft is just days away and the Fantasy Football Today team has been doing all they can to get you ready. In the past two weeks we've had Ryan Wilson, Matt Waldman, and Emory Hunt join us to break down the 2023 draft class. Now I'm ready to give my mock.
I'll lean heavily on the Vegas odds as far who gets drafted when on Thursday night. At this point, that's about the closest thing we have to inside information. I'm not sure we should believe anything that comes from the actual teams themselves this close to the actual draft.
One major change in draft odds is that Will Levis, as of Sunday night, is the odds on favorite to be the No. 2 overall pick. While I'm sure Pete Prisco loves that, it's bad news for C.J. Stroud, who looked like the No. 1 overall pick a month ago, and may not even be one of the top two quarterbacks drafted now. For each pick, I'll give a thought or two on the Fantasy impact. Yes, even for the linemen.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Rookie quarterbacks aren't often very good, but it's hard to imagine Bryce Young won't upgrade this offense over what they got from Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold last year. Young's skillset is outstanding, the only problem is that he's smaller than any successful NFL quarterback in the modern era. The arrival of Young should be pretty great news for Miles Sanders, if only because I would expect Frank Reich to call a conservative game plan in Young's rookie year. Young is just elusive enough as a runner that he could help maintain Sanders' efficiency while not running so often that he negatively impacts Sanders' touches. Young threw the most pass touchdowns ever in a two-year span for an SEC quarterback, so he's as ready as he's going to get. If the team doesn't draft a receiver in Round 2 or Round 3 it will be a surprise, but also a boost for Adam Thielen, who could be Young's No. 1 target. Young will be a top-six pick in Superflex rookie-only drafts and a mid-range QB2 with upside in redraft.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
As of right now this still feels like it would be a shock, but if Levis remains the odds-on favorite to be the No. 2 pick for the rest of the week, everyone will be expecting it. Levis certainly looks the part of an NFL. Unlike Young, he stands at six-foot-four and weighs 229 pounds. He was mediocre at Kentucky and it's possible he doesn't earn the starting job right away. The Texans still have Davis Mills, so concerns about Levis' floor shouldn't bother Fantasy managers all that much. If Levis isn't ready, he doesn't have to play. Like the Panthers, I'd expect the Texans to add a wide receiver later, but if they don't then Levis certainly helps Nico Collins' upside. The fact that Levis ran for 376 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021 should concern Fantasy managers with Dameon Pierce on their roster. This still looks like a below average offense and Levis could be a problem for Pierce when the team gets in the red zone. Levis would be a first round pick in Superflex rookie-only drafts but no more than a QB3 in redraft until he proves he's ready.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Head Coach Jonathan Gannon adds to the defense with Wilson, who led the Big 12 in total pressures and pressure rate in 2022 despite missing three games. Gannon and Wilson won't be enough help the Arizona Cardinals move from 31st in points allowed in 2022 to Fantasy relevant in 2023.
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Pick 1 - Round 4
If this happens, Colts fans, and Shane Steichen, should be dancing in the streets. In fact, everyone in Indianapolis but Gardner Minshew should be celebrating. Like Young, I would expect Stroud to start right away. And like Young, he'll be a big upgrade over the quarterbacks who were on the roster last year. This is a boost for Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce (assuming the Colts don't take a Day 2 WR), and Jonathan Taylor. Stroud's Fantasy value would be similar to Bryce Young's, with Young getting the edge because of draft capital.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
With three QBs off the board, the Seahawks go defense and add Anderson, who led the entire FBS in pressures, QB hits, sacks, and tackles for loss over the past three years. Seattle was top-10 in sacks last year, but they ranked in the bottom half of the league in both pressure and hurry rate. Anderson should fix both of those problems. The Seahawks have been busy adding to the defensive side of the ball and this pick helps push them into sleeper territory in Fantasy Football.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
The Lions make Witherspoon the first defensive back drafted and continue to rebuild a secondary that allowed the third most yards through the air in 2022. Witherspoon was PFF's highest graded corner in 2022 and allowed the fewest yards per attempt (3.0) as a primary defender. Like Seattle, Detroit is building a defense that may be Fantasy relevant.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
We have Gonzalez as our No. 1 corner in this class, if the Raiders do too then they'll be thrilled by this turn of events. Gonzalez ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine, and you know how much the Raiders love speed. No matter how fast he is, I wouldn't expect Gonzalez to turn the Raiders defense into a Fantasy-relevant unit.
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Mock Trade from
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 - Pick 8
We have a trade! The Patriots jump up from 14 to take Anthony Richardson and his immense upside. Richardson stands six-foot-four and weighs 244 pounds and ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at the combine, the fourth-fastest ever by a quarterback. He set QB combine records in the vertical jump (40.5") and the broad jump (10'9"). It is not a stretch to call him the most athletic QB prospect ever. He's the first Gator QB selected in the first round since Tim Tebow. I'm not sure Richardson can be a good enough passer to succeed in the NFL, but this is a fine place to try. Richardson may be the top QB selected in rookie drafts, he'll almost certainly be top-three even if he falls to pick 8. If he starts in Year 1, he has QB1 potential simply because of his legs. No quarterback has more upside in this draft, but Young and Stroud have a much higher floor. Unlike Young and Stroud, I would not expect Richardson to be a boost for anyone currently on the Patriots. In fact, he's a downgrade for just about everyone. The pass catchers, because of his inaccuracy, and Rhamondre Stevenson because of how many touchdowns Richardson could steal on the ground.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Despite a rough draft process, the Bears cannot pass on the upside of Jalen Carter at pick 9. At 314 pounds, Carter is a mountain of a man, but that size also brings concerns about conditioning. If he hits, he has as much upside as any player in this draft. The Bears have made significant additions to the defense this offseason, but even after adding Carter I'm viewing them as a stream at best in Fantasy.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
The first offensive lineman taken goes to the team that had arguably the best offensive line in football last year. At least that shouldn't change. Johnson played inside and outside in his career at OSU and only allowed two sacks on 424 pass block snaps in 2022. His versatility means the Eagles can put him wherever they need him and maintain one of their biggest advantages.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Skoronski is our No. 1 offensive lineman in this class and he goes to a team that certainly has a need. The Titans surrendered the fourth-highest sack rate in 2022 and that might be underselling the current state of their line. If Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are still on the team by Week 1, this gives them some much needing blocking help.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Will Levis will have to wait until (at least) Round 2 to get help on offense. The Texans address the other side of the ball, adding Smith. At 238 pounds, Smith is the second-heaviest player in combine history to jump higher than 40" in the vertical drill and run a sub-4.4 40-yard dash. If he can stay healthy he'll improve this defense, but not enough to make them Fantasy relevant.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
The Jets add Jones to help protect whoever their QB is going to be. In all seriousness, the real intrigue will be if the Jets make this pick or cave to the Packers while they're on the clock. Jones ran the fastest 40 at the combine and did not allow a sack in 449 pass block snaps last year. He'll create more space for Breece Hall and hopefully more time for Aaron Rodgers.
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Mock Trade from
New England Patriots
Round 1 - Pick 14
A lot of people are mocking Robinson to the Falcons at pick 8, they do better in my mock by trading down and still getting the best running back in the class. According to PFF, Robinson's 113 tackles avoided is the most in FBS in the last six years. He can do it all and should instantly supplant Tyler Allgeier as RB1 in Atlanta. Robinson becomes a borderline Round 1 pick in redraft, the first overall pick in all rookie-only drafts, and my No. 1 overall running back in Dynasty. This is also a great turn of events for Desmond Ridder. He's the clear QB1 for the Falcons and the offense is more potent with Robinson on it. He is a borderline QB2 in redraft leagues, with upside.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
The Packers continue to pass on Round 1 WRs and take Van Ness, who we have ranked as the No. 3 edge rusher in the class. His 19 tackles for loss over the past two seasons rank third in the Big 10. The Packers were already a borderline top-12 unit but if Van Ness hits, they could become a must-start unit. They were tied with Cleveland for the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL last year. This should help.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
The Commanders already added Andrew Wylie to lock down the right side of their line and now they'll hope Wright can do the same on the left. Wright did not allow a sack in his final 19 games in college. The Commanders are doing everything they can to make things easier for Sam Howell, who already has Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson to throw to. Those weapons, plus Howell's rushing upside make him a low-end QB2 for me, with room to grow.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
This one is too easy, right? He's former Steeler Joey Porter's son and he went to Penn State. The Steelers are a starting unit for Fantasy purposes and they'll look to repeat a 2022 that saw them lead the NFL in team interceptions. Porter Jr. should help.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
The Lions added a defensive back earlier in Round 1, now they add Murphy to rush the passer alongside Aidan Hutchison. The Lions are officially everyone's favorite sleeper defense assuming they don't draw a terrible Week 1 matchup. Murphy's 18.5 sacks over the past three seasons rank second in the ACC.
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Mock Trade from
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 1 - Pick 19
Finally, the wide receiver drought, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's slide, end. The Ravens can't wait any longer and trade up to grab the consensus No. 1 receiver in the class. Smith-Njigba missed most of 2022 due to hamstring issues, but in 2021 he caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards, and nine touchdowns on a team that also featured Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He'll join Odell Beckham, Mark Andrews, and hopefully Lamar Jackson, in Todd Monken's new offense in Baltimore. This gives Jackson the best receiving corps of his career, but significantly hampers any Rashod Bateman breakout talk. Smith-Njigba should be a top-three pick in on-QB rookie drafts. If Jackson is at training camp, we'll view his rookie receiver as an upside No. 3 option.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
The Seahawks follow the Lions' lead by adding a second defender in the first round, though they do it in reverse order, adding our No. 1 safety here after adding our No. 1 edge rusher at pick 5. This vaults them into the top-10 amongst Fantasy defenses. Branch can do it all and should instantly improve the Seahawks' back end.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Flowers is WR2 off the board, heading to the Los Angeles Chargers to join Justin Herbert and maybe the most crowded receiving room in the NFL. Longterm, Flowers is a fantastic option to fill the Keenan Allen role. But in 2022, Allen is still there and for now, so are Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett. A few things we know, this is awesome for Justin Herbert and awful for Josh Palmer. For redraft purposes, it's not a great landing spot for Flowers, who I'd expect to be third at best in the pecking order. While he's an easy top-five pick in one-QB rookie-only drafts, he won't likely crack the top 40 in redraft rankings as the Chargers roster is currently constructed. This is a small ding for Williams, Allen, and Ekeler as it looks like Kellen Moore will go back to spreading the ball around as he did during his early years in Dallas.
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Mock Trade from
Baltimore Ravens
Round 1 - Pick 22
Tampa Bay traded down to add picks and now they add an offensive lineman as well. It's a bit of a mystery whether the Buccaneers can be competitive without Tom Brady, but Torrence should at least help anchor down the middle of the offensive line. He was the fourth-heaviest player at this year's combine and PFF's highest graded guard in 2022. He also played 1,427 pass block snaps in four years and did not allow a sack.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
The Vikings find their Adam Thielen replacement in Jordan Addison. Addison is undersized at 173 pounds but his route running is good enough to make you wonder if that matters at all. He won the Biletnikoff Award in 2021 and then transferred to USC and led the Trojans in receiving in his first year there. This is a blow to the K.J. Osborn hype train, but if Addison hits it could give Kirk Cousins one of the top WR duos in the NFL. Addison should be a mid-first pick in one-QB rookie-only drafts and he'll be an upside WR3 in redraft. This may be a slight downgrade for T.J. Hockenson, because if Addison earns the snaps in Year 1, he's going to get open sooner and more often than Hockenson.
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Mock Trade from
Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1 - Pick 24
The Bills trade up to jump the Giants and grab the last wide receiver we see as worthy of a first round pick. Johnson is unique in this class because of his height at six-foot-three. This landing spot is a mixed bag, as is Johnson's profile. He probably has to beat our Gabe Davis to make a significant impact as a rookie, but if he does earn snaps he'll be playing in one of the most explosive offenses in the league. This pick is likely bad news for Davis, and maybe Khalil Shakir as well. Johnson will be a late-round flier in redraft until he beats out Davis, and a late-first round pick in rookie-only drafts. He has the upside to be the best receiver in this class, but he has work to do as a route runner and with his catch technique for that to happen.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
The Giants miss out on the receivers so they go get Wink Martindale a tall lanky defensive back instead. Brents may turn into a safety in the NFL but the Giants are hopeful one way or another he'll help improve on their league-low six interceptions in 2022.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
One Dalton gone at tight end for the Cowboys, one Dalton added. Kincaid Had the second-most receiving yards for a tight end in FBS last year and is tied for second for touchdowns at the position over the last two seasons. He has some injury concerns due to his back, but if he's healthy he has the ability to step in and do everything Schultz did as a pass catcher and then some. This will eliminate the Jake Ferguson sleeper hype, if there ever was one. Kincaid will be my top tight end in rookie drafts, but I won't take him before Round 2 unless it's a tight end premium league. Rookie tight ends are tough to trust, just don't take one in the single-digit rounds.
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Mock Trade from
Buffalo Bills
Round 1 - Pick 27
The Jaguars take Bresee to help a run defense that was slightly better than average in 2022. A late first round pick on the interior of the defensive line isn't going to move the needle much for Fantasy purposes, but the Jaguars aren't likely a starting unit even if it would.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Mayer was underutilized and misused at Notre Dame, but he has the upside as a pass catcher to produce in the NFL and start in Fantasy Football. I just wouldn't expect it in Year 1 as long as Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins stay healthy. Hayden Hurst was better last year when he didn't have so much competition for targets and Mayer will be the same, at least early in his career. This hurts Irv Smith's sleeper appeal, but with the way rookie tight ends often go, I wouldn't rule out Smith being the best option in 2023. In Dynasty, Mayer is a Round 2 pick some time after Kincaid has been taken.
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Mock Trade from
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 29
Seattle trades back into the first round for a third Round 1 pick. They do it to draft hendon Hooker and preserve the possibility of having that fifth-year option. Hooker is already 25 years old and thanks to a torn ACL at Tennessee, he won't likely be full speed until late 2023. But Seattle has Geno Smith, so they can afford to wait. Hooker has the mobility and accuracy to give him significant Fantasy Football upside if everything goes right. This is a slight ding to Smith's Dynasty value, but if he's as good as he was last year he still has at least two years left as a starter. Hooker should be a Round 2 pick in rookie-only Superflex drafts.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
The Eagles go defense with their second pick and add Forbes, who set an FBS record with six (!) pick sixes. If he keeps that up he could help make the Eagles the No. 1 DST in Fantasy this year, but they're top-12 even if Forbes does nothing.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
When in doubt, protect Patrick Mahomes. There was some talk that Harrison would return to Oklahoma for an NIL deal, but he'll join Mahomes in Kansas City instead. The Chiefs should once again have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL.
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