The 2025 NFL Draft is over and we have spent the last couple of weeks focusing on the rookies and how they will impact the veterans on their respective teams. But the conclusion of the draft also signals the start of something else, Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts season. Early May is typically when we release our first version of these articles, and while plenty will change in the next four months, I also expect you will gain some insights that will last until September.
The generally accepted term for a breakout is a player who has a career-year (at least up to this point) and provides league-winning upside. One thing I still hear some debate about is whether a rookie can be a breakout. Let's clear that up from the start, with two of my favorite rookie breakout picks, Ashton Jeanty and Travis Hunter.
I would venture to guess that anyone who considers rookies as eligible to be breakouts will have Jeanty on their breakout list. He was the consensus RB1 in this class and arguably the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. He led the nation with 2,601 rushing yards and scored 30 total touchdowns as a junior. His sophomore season he caught 43 passes for 569 yards. He's still just 21 years old. And I don't think it will take long for him to deliver on his promise.
The number six pick in the NFL should instantly be a workhorse back for the Raiders. In my early projections, I have Jeanty slated for 313 rush attempts for 1,411 yards and 10.5 touchdowns. I also project 46 catches for 320 yards and 2.1 TDs on 61 targets. That makes him RB 8 in the projections but I would draft him ahead of older backs who project for more points like Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, and Alvin Kamara. The best part, I don't think I am close to projecting him at his upside. Jeanty could be the number one running back in Fantasy Football as soon as this season. Don't hesitate to draft him in Round 1.
As obvious as Jeanty is, it's pretty remarkable that Hunter was selected four spots higher in the NFL Draft. The Jacksonville Jaguars traded up to get him, pairing him with Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas, and new head coach Liam Coen. Under Coen, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both finished as top-10 wide receivers on a per-game basis in 2024. I don't want to project Hunter that high, but I also don't want to rule it out. The 21-year-old caught 96 passes for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns for Colorado last year while playing cornerback.
This year I project Hunter 75-1,050-5.6, but that is still factoring in that he may not play a full complement of snaps as a rookie because of his defensive duties. There is a good chance I am being to cautious and Hunter produces like a top-20 wide receiver right away. In full PPR you can draft him in Round 5 and know that he has a lot of upside at that cost.
Here are eight more breakout candidates with league-winning upside:
There are a few guys on this breakout list that I would expect you may ask, "Wait, didn't they break out last year?" Daniels certainly did, I just don't think he's done yet. I project Daniels as the number one quarterback in Fantasy Football this season with 4,262 yards and 28 touchdowns through the air and 814 yards and 5.5 touchdowns on the ground. Part of that is just him getting more comfortable in the NFL, part of it is the Commanders adding a number two wide receiver for him in Deebo Samuel. Samuel's YAC-ability should help Daniels' passing numbers and he's also a very good complement to Terry McLaurin. Almost nobody else has Daniels as the QB1, so on Draft Day you can wait for Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to come off the board, then select Daniels, who I believe can be better than both this year.
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Brown had a second-half breakout in 2024 and nothing that happened this offense makes me believe he won't do it for a full season in 2025. He averaged 23.7 touches per game in the Bengals final eight games and played at least 79.7% of the offensive snaps in every game. His improvement in 2025 will come through more efficient running and a few more rushing touchdowns. He's worthy of a look in Round 2 of all formats and legitimately has top-five upside.
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Most of the things I am going to say about Ken Walker apply to Zach Charbonnet if Walker misses time or the new offensive coordinator prefers Charbonnet's skillset. But right now, Walker is the favorite to start. Walker set a career-high with 46 catches despite playing just 11 games last year and the addition of Klint Kubiak could be a big boost to him. In his last two seasons running an offense, Kubiak's offenses have averaged 446 rush attempts and 128 running back targets per season. Even with Charbonnet having a role, that leaves plenty of room for a Walker breakout, especially if his rushing average rebounds like it should in a Kubiak system. Walker ranks as a top-10 running back for me in May, and like Brown, I believe he has top-five upside.
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Last year Nabers caught passes from Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Tim Boyle. Still, he somehow managed a top-10 season as a rookie. In 2025 he'll likely begin the year catching passes from Russell Wilson with Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart waiting in case Wilson falters. You could legitimately make the case that Nabers' QB3 entering this season is better than any QB he played with last year. I project Nabers for a slightly better second season, but he has WR1 overall upside if he gets even league-average QB play.
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I expect Harrison will be a popular breakout pick this year. That's partially because of his pedigree as a former top-10 pick, and partially because his rookie season left a lot of room for improvement. I expect a more diverse route tree from Harrison, who is still just 22 years old. That should come with a target increase and an improvement on his paltry 53% catch rate from 2024. Harrison is best drafted as a low-end WR2, but I won't be surprised if he finishes top 12 at wide receiver.
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At 27 years old Jennings is the oldest breakout on this list as he enters his first year as a top-two wide receiver on the offense. Deebo Samuel is gone and Brandon Aiyuk may not be ready until the middle of the year, so Jennings could be the team's WR1 for the first half of the season. In Week 3, without Samuel, Jennings burst onto the scene with 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns. Four weeks later Aiyuk was lost for the season and Jennings averaged 8.6 targets per game from Week 10 on.
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If Jauan Jennings doesn't break out this year it will be because 2024 first-round pick Ricky Pearsall got in his way. Pearsall caught 14 passes for 210 yards and two touchdowns in the last two games of 2025 and should get a chance to build on that with Deebo Samuel in Washington and Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a torn ACL and MCL. I expect both Jennings and Pearsall to benefit from a potential pass volume increase thanks to the 49ers retooled defense.
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All we need for a Tucker Kraft breakout is more volume and sustained efficiency. Kraft averaged a remarkable 10.1 yards per target in his second season and scored once every 10 targets. He probably can't keep that up, but he should see more volume since the Packers were one of the most run-heavy offenses in football last year. One thing that has remained constant through two years in the NFL is that Kraft is a monster after the catch. On 110 career targets, he is averaging 8.5 yards per catch after the catch. Some tight ends are below that mark pre-reception. George Kittle has shown us how YAC can make up for a lack of targets, so Kraft may not need 100 targets to produce top 5 results.
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