The 2025 NFL Draft is over and we have spent the last couple of weeks focusing on the rookies and how they will impact the veterans on their respective teams. But the conclusion of the draft also signals the start of something else, Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts season. Early May is typically when we release our first version of these articles, and while plenty will change in the next four months, I also expect you will gain some insights that will last until September.
When we get to August I will base my bust list on where guys are getting drafted. I use consensus rankings in May, because that is one of the best indicators of where players will be drafted. Busts are draft capital relative,12 points per game from your first round pick is a bust, but just fine if you took the guy in Round 6, and awesome if you drafted him in Round 10. With that in mind, I am highlighting five players in the top 48 who I don't believe will live up to their draft capital and five more in the next 48 who may not give you anything at all.
We should start by addressing the two elephants on the bust list, Josh Allen and Derrick Henry.
I have nothing bad to say about either player. They're both likely to end up in Canton one day. Henry is the active leader in rush attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. He's also 31 years old. His early consensus ranking is 8th overall. I cannot draft a 31-year-old running back in Round 1 of a Fantasy Football draft. I also do not think you should. Of course, I didn't think you should last year either, and Henry finished RB4 and justified the cost. The problem is that is the best case scenario, maybe he just barely lives up to his ADP. The downside is far more pronounced.
Allen is another phenomenal player who looks like a repeat on my bust list. He's being ranked as QB1 at the two-three turn, and I don't really like either of those. Last year I ranked Allen as QB4 due to concerns about the offense and his weapons. In CBS scoring, he finished as QB3 and in CBS scoring he finished as QB3, and there were some troubling signs that have nothing to do with his skillset. He threw 483 passes, his lowest mark since 2019, and he ran the ball 102 times, his lowest mark since 2020. Few quarterbacks have any chance of finishing top 3 with that volume. Allen did it because he's awesome, but it's a narrow path to QB3, much less QB1. I prefer Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson, I think you can make a solid argument for Joe Burrow. Maybe more importantly, with so many good options I don't really want to take any QB before pick 36.
Here are eight more players who make my early bust list based on consensus rankings:
Last year Evans was one of my most rostered players in redraft. But if he is being drafted in Round 3, I don't imagine I will have him on any teams at all. Part of it is the fact that he will be 32 years old in August, that is a dangerous age even for elite wide receivers. The fact that the team drafted Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 doesn't help either. My biggest concern is that when Chris Godwin was healthy last year, Evans was averaging seven targets and 51.7 receiving yards per game. Unless Godwin starts the year on the PUP I won't draft Evans before Round 5.
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Hill is a year younger than Evans, but showed signs of decline in 2024. His yards per catch and yards per game were both his lowest totals since his rookie year. Part of that may be due to a wrist injury Hill was dealing with, part of that is definitely that Tua Tagovailoa missed time and Hill was awful without him. But even adjusting for those two factors, the Dolphins offense dramatically shifted, incorporated more short area targets to Jonnu Smith and the running backs. There are too many red flags to draft an aging wide receiver this year, especially considering the off-field risks.
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I have legitimate concerns about an offensive decline in Detroit without Ben Johnson. They will still be good, I am not sure they will be a top five scoring offense like they have the last two seasons. That matters more to LaPorta, who has been highly dependent on touchdowns for Fantasy production. LaPorta saw his target share shrink with the emergence of Jameson Williams last year, and LaPorta only topped 60 yards in four games all season. He's definitely a starting tight end in Fantasy, but not part of the elite group you should reach for in the first four rounds of a draft.
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McMillan's early consensus ranking has him ranked ahead of Chris Olave, Chris Godwin, Calvin RIdley, and Jerry Jeudy amongst others I would rather draft. I am not comfortable drafting a rookie wide receiver playing with Bryce Young at quarterback in the first five rounds, and I do think early in the season McMillan may struggle to get the separation he needs to produce at this level. I am more comfortable drafting him in Round 7.
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I am hopeful Pacheco bounces back from his disappointing 2024, but I am not confident. The Chiefs brought back Kareem Hunt, who was functioning as their RB1 at the end of last year, acquired Elijah Mitchell was has been very good when healthy, and drafted Brashard Smith who could function as the team's pass catching back. While I do expect Pacheco to lead the team in touches I also expect the team to implement a committee, and that committee could have Pacheco stuck in a role without short yardage work or receiving work. The former 7th round pick has averaged about 13 touches per game for his career and that is pretty close to my expectation for 2025, if he's fully recovered from the broken leg that slowed him in 2024.
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Like LaPorta, Andrews saw his target share plummet last year to barely more than four targets per game. He will turn 30 in September, has battled multiple injuries over the last three years, and has to compete with Isaiah Likely for tight end targets on a run-heavy team. I am fine with Andrews as a late pick as a low-end starter, but like LaPorta I don't believe he will be a true difference maker at the position this year.
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You have to make a decision on the George Pickens trade to Dallas. I see three options. Either CeeDee Lamb takes a step back in terms of targets, or Dak Prescott has a bounce back year and is a top-six QB, or Pickens is going to be a bust at this ranking. As of now I am choosing option three. Pickens will have some boom weeks, but good luck guessing when. I project him closer to Jake Ferguson in targets than Lamb, and view him as a better pick in Best Ball leagues than redraft.
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One of the riskiest players in 2025, Tracy is a former Day 3 pick who was joined in the backfield by another Day 3 pick, Cam Skattebo. I expect at some point in 2025, Skattebo becomes the lead back, and the rookie may already be the best Giants running back for passing downs. If Tracy's fumble issues pop back up, Skattebo could be the lead back early in the season. Also, this is probably still a below average Giants offense. I wouldn't draft a Giants running back before Round 9.
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