The 2025 NFL Draft is over and we have spent the last couple of weeks focusing on the rookies and how they will impact the veterans on their respective teams. But the conclusion of the draft also signals the start of something else, Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts season. Early May is typically when we release our first version of these articles, and while plenty will change in the next four months, I also expect you will gain some insights that will last until September.
Generally, when I put together a list of sleepers, I like to use ADP and limit my selections to guys who are not drafted in the single-digit rounds in redraft. They problem with that in early May is that we don't have reliable ADP this time of year. Sure, there is some Bestball ADP (that will change in major ways before August), but that format doesn't exactly mimic redraft ADP, even if it does influence it. So for this first version, I want to focus on our rankings, which have all been refreshed with 2025 rookies and free agent landing spots. I have chosen 10 players who are outside the top 108 (nine rounds in a 12-team league) in our consensus rankings, but I rank them at least one round higher than consensus.
I want to start with three veterans who do not have a team yet. J.K. Dobbins, Nick Chubb, and Keenan Allen and are all still free agents, and they rank 128, 130, and 154 in our consensus rankings. We have done two mock drafts since the NFL Draft. Dobbins was drafted 156th and 157th overall. Allen was drafted 137th and 216th, both times by me. Finally, Chubb went 152nd and 180th overall. In other words, they are basically free.
While it appears I am the only one who is interested in Allen at this time, he was the one who most convincingly showed he could still play last year. Allen earned 121 targets in 15 games playing alongside D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze. He led the team with seven receiving touchdowns. His age, 33 years old, is a bright red flag, but it's not like you are drafting safe players in the 12th round or later. While there are not many desirable landing spots left, he could earn a bunch of targets with a rookie QB in Tennessee, or he could bolster the receiving corps in Pittsburgh or New Orleans. It's also a possibility he returns home to the Chargers, which would make me very concerned about Ladd McConkey justifying his ADP. One thing is for sure, if Allen finds a team and stays healthy, I would bet on him crushing his ADP.
For Dobbins and Chubb it is easier to see a path to Fantasy production in terms of landing spot. Chicago has a role for a hammer next to D'Andre Swift and we have seen both Jamaal Williams and David Montgomery thrive in that role in the Ben Johnson offense. Also, I would rather have Chubb or Dobbins as my lead back than anyone the Cowboys have on the roster. If one of these guys finds their way to Chicago and the other lands in Dallas, I will rank the guy with Ben Johnson higher but they will both be worth a pick in the single-digit rounds.
Dobbins is the more attractive of the two backs. He's still just 26 years old, he averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season on a Chargers team where the other backs averaged 3.4. Injuries are a major concern with Dobbins, but they are as well for the 29-year-old Chubb who has only played 10 games in the last two seasons. Still, if you are throwing a dart on a running back at the end of the draft you might as well choose one who has been historically efficient when healthy (both have) and who could possibly land in a place where they don't even need an injury to contribute. Here are seven more early sleepers:
In the first five weeks of 2024 Rashid Shaheed caught 19 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns on 41 targets. In the same stretch, Olave caught 22 of 28 targets for 275 yards and one score. In our consensus rankings, Olave is WR30 and Shaheed is WR49. The gap in ADP may be even bigger by the time we get to August. I am not arguing for taking Shaheed over Olave, just that the gap shouldn't be this big. I have Shaheed ranked as a value in Round 9, but you can comfortably wait until Round 10 to take a high-upside WR3.
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Williams just delivered 1,001 yards and seven touchdowns on 91 targets in 15 games as a 23-year-old. He has immense upside and could see his role grow with a new offensive coordinator. He's the definition of a boom/bust WR3 who could supply you with multiple week-winning performances, if those performances come in the Fantasy playoffs he may just be a league winner. He topped 18 PPR Fantasy points four times last year, I would not be surprised if he does it even more often in 2025.
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This was Dak Prescott when I put this list together on Tuesday night, but the Cowboys' acquisition of George Pickens spoiled that. I'm also well above consensus on Purdy. His down year in 2024 was mostly a result of a career-low 4.4% touchdown rate, but his 8.5 yards per pass attempt was still elite. Purdy should remain one of the most efficient passers in the league and if they 49ers take a step back on defense, which I think they may, he could post a career-high in pass attempts. Purdy in not a top-12 QB in most drafts, but he will finish the year as a Fantasy starter again.
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I know people are scared of Anthony Richardson's passing and that is why Downs is ranked so low. The thing is, our sample size with the two of them together is really hard to parse because of injuries. It was a mixed bag, but Downs did deliver performances of 20.9, 19.4, and 15.1 with Richardson under center, so it wasn't all bad. They're both entering Year 3 of their career, and this could be a breakout year for both. Thankfully they are being drafted late enough to call them sleepers instead of breakouts.
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Where do you draft a guy who could average 30 Fantasy points per game or could lose his starting job before Week 1? That is a decision that could alter your Fantasy season. The reasons I am higher than consensus on Richardson are pretty simple. I believe it is undeniable that Richardson has top-three upside at quarterback and ini a one-quarterback league there are multiple late-round options that can provide the floor Richardson doesn't. Then it just comes down to what are you giving up by drafting him instead of the best player at another position. For me, the point where the risk is worth the reward is the end of the ninth round. I don't believe there is anyone available that late with more upside than Richardson.
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The community has been too quick, in my opinion to discount the potential of Bigsby being the best running back on the Jaguars this season. he took a big step forward in his second season, and there could be another step coming. I still prefer Travis Etienne, but early drafters are already favoring fourth-round pick Bhayshul Tuten over Bigsby as well. This is an ambiguous backfield heading into training camp and I am more than happy to draft the last one taken in the double-digit rounds.
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A lot of the names on this list, particularly Richardson, have big time upside. Ertz does not have that. What he does have is a role in an exciting offense with my QB1 for the 2025 season. Ertz's age is a concern, but he was actually better in the second half of the season, averaging 12.4 PPR Fantasy points per game. He followed that up by averaging 13.2 PPR FPPG in the Fantasy playoffs. There is more target competition in 2025, but I would also expect Jayden Daniels to throw more passes in his second season. Ertz is my TE12 in full PPR and there may be multiple kickers and defenses drafted before him in your league.
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