As expected, the Chiefs offense regressed — they were only the fifth best in the league with Patrick Mahomes missing most of three games. Mahomes is either QB1 or QB2 in Fantasy, Tyreek Hill is elite and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be the Kareem Hunt replacement we've been looking for.
Record: 12 - 4 (5)
PPG: 28.2 (5)
YPG: 379.2 (6)
Pass YPG: 281.1 (5)
Rush YPG: 98.1 (23)
PAPG: 36.0 (15)
RAPG: 23.4 (27)
2019 Fantasy finishes
Number to know: 114
That's how many points the Chiefs fell off from 2018's league-leading mark. It might sound like a lot, but it's pretty comparable to what happened with the Broncos coming off their historic 2013; they only fell from first in scoring to second, but it was a 124-point drop off. You should always bet against historically great offenses sustaining that pace from one year to the next, however there are also reasons to think the Chiefs will be better in 2020 than 2019. For one, you hope Patrick Mahomes doesn't miss two games and most of another. The more important reason, however, might be the addition of first-round running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the continued development of Mecole Hardman. The Chiefs should be the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 offense in 2020; if you could guarantee that Hardman or Edwards-Helaire becomes a consistent contributor, I might take them over the field.
OL Mike Remmer
118 carries, 41 RB targets, 2 WR targets, 15 TE targets
Rankings and Projections
|Heath Cummings' projections|
|QB||Patrick Mahomes||4,812 YD, 35 TD, 12 INT; 223 Rush YD, 2 TD|
|RB||Clyde Edwards-Helaire||700 YD, 6 TD; 45 REC, 353 YD, 3 TD|
|RB||Damien Williams||653 YD, 6 TD; 28 REC, 211 YD, 2 TD|
|WR||Tyreek Hill||122 TAR, 80 REC, 1,229 YD, 8 TD|
|WR||Sammy Watkins||75 TAR, 44 REC, 603 YD, 5 TD|
|WR||Mecole Hardman||75 TAR, 45 REC, 724 YD, 5 TD|
|TE||Travis Kelce||139 TAR, 97 REC, 1,247 YD, 7 TD|
Is Clyde Edwards-Helaire the Week 1 starter?
"The Chiefs made Edwards-Helaire the first back off the board in Round 1 of the draft, and his pass-catching ability makes him a perfect fit for their offense. Andy Reid reportedly sees him as a better version of Brian Westbrook, and Edwards-Helaire could be a Fantasy force right out of the gate. But Kansas City may not just push aside postseason hero Damien Williams, making this one of the most important preseason positional battles for Fantasy." - Ben Gretch
One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
Williams has been largely forgotten by Fantasy players, but it's worth remembering how effective he's been in this Chiefs offense over the past two seasons. In 16 games where he has played at least 50% of the team's snaps, Williams has 1,006 rushing yards, 518 receiving yards on 65 receptions with 21 touchdowns. That would have been good for the No. 2 running back spot in PPR leagues last season. A lot of that has to do with the role he's playing in this offense, which is also why Edwards-Helaire is so coveted. However, Williams may still have a role here, especially if the undersized Edwards-Helaire doesn't prove worthy of an every-down role right away. Given the abbreviated and disjointed offseason schedule rookies are dealing with, there's a non-zero chance Williams is still the starter here come Week 1. And he's obviously a hugely valuable handcuff.
The obvious comp when the Chiefs took the 5-foot-10, 187-pound Hardman and his 4.33 40 time was Tyreek Hill, and he showed it wasn't a totally inapt comparison as a rookie. Hardman scored six times on 41 targets, showcasing that same home run hitting ability Hill has. Hardman actually had the opportunity to step into a significant role when Hill went down last season, but he wasn't quite ready for primetime. However, he did play at least 40% of the Chiefs snaps in seven of the last nine games of the season, a good sign. It's fair to wonder how much of a role Hardman will end up having given how much overlap there is between him and Hill, but if he can actually lock in as the No. 3 target on this offense, he could have a peak-Mike Wallace-esque impact.
I thought I was as thrilled as anyone about Edwards-Helaire's landing spot until we actually started drafting. I've seen him go as high as the top 10 in re-draft leagues, and his ADP in the early going has settled in comfortably in the second round. I'm sorry, but that's too rich for my blood. To be clear, this is a phenomenal landing spot for a running back, in an Andy Reid offense that creates Fantasy production at will. If he earns the No. 1 role from Week 1 like Kareem Hunt did, that kind of rookie season isn't out of the question. Of course, Hunt didn't have that role until a late injury to Spencer Ware. If we get to training camp and Edwards-Helaire is working primarily with the first team, I might have to see if I can scrub this one from the internet permanently. Just know that's no guarantee.
AFC East: Bills | Jets | Patriots | Dolphins
NFC East: Giants | Cowboys | Eagles | Redskins
AFC South: Colts | Texans | Jaguars | Titans
NFC South: Panthers | Bucs | Falcons | Saints
AFC North: Ravens | Steelers | Browns | Bengals
NFC North: Packers | Vikings | Bears | Lions
AFC West: Chiefs | Broncos | Raiders | Chargers
NFC West: Seahawks | 49ers | Rams | Cardinals
So what Fantasy football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which WR1 candidate can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that was all over Derrick Henry's huge season, and find out.