There should be less drama in Dallas this offseason after Dak Prescott agreed to a four-year extension with the Cowboys. The deal makes him the second-highest paid quarterback in football behind only Patrick Mahomes. His past two years' Fantasy production says that it an appropriate valuation.
Prescott leads all quarterbacks with 321.8 passing yards per game since the start of the 2019 season, and that includes Week 5 of the 2020 season when he left early with an injury. He has played 20 complete games with Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator and his 16-game pace is 5,274 passing yards, 290 rushing yards, and 36 total touchdowns.
At least part of that success is due to Moore's aggressive playcalling. Prescott has averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game under Moore. At the same time, it's impressive he's has been able to average 8.27 yards per attempt with that type of volume. Especially when you consider he only threw 11 interceptions on 638 attempts in those 20 games.
There's no reason to think he can't keep it up either. His receiving trio of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb is arguably the best in football and only getting better. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard can both be pluses in the passing game. Blake Jarwin should be fully recovered from his injury as well. It's not hard to see why Prescott projects as my No. 5 Fantasy quarterback, just seven points behind No. 3.
While we were always projecting Prescott in Dallas for redraft purposes, the move does help his risk profile in Dallas. The chance of a team change disrupting his success I mostly removed. So is the likelihood of a holdout in the next three years. Prescott is still my No. 6 quarterback in Dynasty, but he's closer to Deshaun Watson at No. 5 than he was before news of the deal broke.
This is fantastic news for the rest of the Cowboys as well, even if there are too many mouths to feed. Elliott will be a popular bounceback candidate, and this helps his floor. Cooper and Lamb could both be No. 2 receivers, while Michael Gallup and Blake Jarwin remain solid sleepers with upside if someone gets hurt.
In Dynasty, Lamb gains a little more long-term guarantee. He should get his shot as Prescott's No. 1 within the next two or three years, possibly as early as 2021.
As long as Prescott and the offensive line are able to stay healthy this should be one of the most explosive, high-paced offenses once again. Prescott's deal should make sure that's the case for the foreseeable future.