June is supposed to be the quiet period for Dynasty Fantasy Football. By then rookie values have mostly settled, we're still a month away from training camp, things are supposed to be nice and quiet. But as we finish out May there is still much to be decided about the 2021 season, and a lot of it has drastic Dynasty implications.
We don't know when or if Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers will play for their respective teams again. And the longer that question lingers, the more the odds of them not playing at all in Week 1 (or longer) start to become something we have to consider.
We can feel pretty confident Julio Jones won't be in Atlanta for Week 1, but we may not find out until mid-June where he'll be playing. The same goes for Zach Ertz. While Jones and Ertz are at the age that their Dynasty value is greatly diminishing, their absence would create a major opportunity for DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, and others.
Is there a way to capitalize on all this uncertainty? Besides guessing right, probably not. Well, except in the case of Rodgers. People are already beginning to draft Davante Adams and Aaron Jones as if Rodgers is already gone. That provides an opportunity to buy at their floor and capitalize if Rodgers has a change of heart. Which leads us to our first question.
Still Buying Davante Adams?
With a win now team just in need of a stud WR, how much are you willing to give up for Davante Adams before we know Rodgers’ status?— James chetney (@james_chetney) May 26, 2021
I don't want it to sound like I'm just ignoring the possibility Rodgers is leaving. I dropped Adams from No. 1 to No. 3 at receiver, but he's still in my top tier in the most recent Dynasty Wide Receiver Tiers. If Rodgers is actually traded and Jordan Love is the quarterback, I could see dropping him to No. 12, right behind DeAndre Hopkins. In redraft I'd still have Adams as a top-eight receiver in all formats.
What you give up is dependent on how antsy the manager with Adams is feeling. I'd start at the value I proposed if Adams was gone. In terms of 2021 draft picks that would be the No. 3 pick in a rookie draft. But considering you consider yourself a "win-now" team, I'm going to assume you don't have a top-3 pick. I would be very happy to deal a pair of late firsts for Adams, even if Rodgers was gone.
Assuming that won't get it done (or the other manager wants players instead of picks), the max I would give up, straight up, at each position would be J.K. Dobbins or CeeDee Lamb. I'm not sure there's a quarterback or tight end to trade for him because a win-now team shouldn't be trading away an elite tight end or quarterback.
2022 Draft Pick Values
Heath! I noticed there's no 2022 draft pick values in your latest trade chart. Can you tell me about where 2022 1sts/2nds/3rds would be?— Gary Steltermann (@GStelts55) May 26, 2021
There's a reason I don't have 2022 draft picks in the trade chart yet; because I don't think any of us know what they're worth quite yet. But I also know that people want to trade them and I will start by saying at this point I'm more interested in trading away 2022 picks than acquiring them unless you're trading with a really bad team.
That last caveat is an important one. There is a mountain of a difference between trading for a bad team's 2022 first and a good team's 2022 first. If it's a bad team, I'd value a 2022 first somewhere slightly above DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. If it's a good team I wouldn't give more than Michael Carter or Rashod Bateman. A 2022 second is worth even less, someone outside of my top-18 rookies, Amon-Ra St. Brown is No. 18 for me. And a 2022 third wouldn't make the trade chart even if I did include them, which I'm going to try to do when I update it again in June.
A couple of additional notes:
- I used 2021 rookies in establishing the values because it made the most sense in my head. But you can use the trade chart to get similar veteran values.
- These values were all assuming a one-QB league. Draft picks are worth more in Superflex leagues.
Buy Low/Sell High
What are your favorite buy low/sell high candidates in dynasty?— Tyler 🙅🏼♂️ (@TylerHouston33) May 26, 2021
I get this question a lot, and probably answered it in past mailbags, but enough people keep asking I'll answer it again.
On the higher end, I'm targeting Lamar Jackson, Josh Jacobs, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mark Andrews as players I've seen go way lower in startups this year than I believe they should. I still view Jackson as the No. 2 quarterback in Dynasty, I still think Andrews is a top-five tight end, while Jacobs and Smith-Schuster are still young enough that they're still high-end No. 2s for me at their position.
As far as sell-highs, I should make it clear, I don't sell high if I'm a true contender. Assuming you aren't, I'm unloading Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, and Travis Kelce as soon as I can. I cannot imagine their Dynasty values will ever increase from where they are right now.
On the lower end I'm buying Tua Tagovailoa, Devin Singletary, Henry Ruggs, and Blake Jarwin. These players have all been available in the double-digit rounds of startups I've done recently and I still believe they all have considerable upside. There's nothing safe at all about them, but they should be dirt cheap to acquire.
Tight End Rankings
Rank these TE in dynasty....— Bada Bing, Bada Boom (@srein00) May 26, 2021
But you gave me a chance to tout Mark Andrews and Noah Fant, so I'm going to answer anyway.
Andrews is a different animal than the rest of this group. He's proven the ability to earn a 25% target share, he's proven the ability to produce as an elite tight end, and he's still just 25 years old. I go back and forth between Tier 1 and Tier 2 with Andrews, but he's a tier above everyone in this question.
Hockenson and Fant are in the next tier, and I have them much closer than most do. They're both young tight ends with great pedigree who have shown flashes, but not enough to view them as elite tight ends yet. I actually think Fant has more physical upside, but Hockenson's target opportunity this season gives him a slight edge.
Irv Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Robert Tonyan round out the list. Smith and Goedert aren't that far apart, but Tonyan is a couple of tiers back. I just don't buy the touchdown rate from last year and I don't really think he has the same longterm upside of Smith.
Trade youth for Kamara?
Grade the trade: 14 team SUPERFLEX dynasty— Anthony Reimer (@mrmeseeksff) May 26, 2021
Give: Joe Burrow, DK Metcalf
Get: Alvin Kamara, Matt Ryan and Allen Robinson
This is where your supporting cast has a major impact. In 2021 there may not be a huge difference between Joe Burrow and Matt Ryan. DK Metcalf and Allen Robinson could be similar in production as well. Getting Alvin Kamara on top? Love it... if it's going to push you over the edge to a championship.
As for true Dynasty value? I view Kamara and Metcalf as a push, Burrow is the second-best player in the deal by a fair margin (because it's Superflex) and I don't love Ryan as a longterm quarterback. In fact, it's quite possible (likely) Kamara, Robinson, and Ryan all see their value decrease from this point forward.
Would I give up Metcalf and Burrow for a championship? Of course. Flags fly forever. But you had better have a stacked roster round Ryan, Kamara, and Robinson if you make this deal.