Sometimes the ledes write themselves. Over the last two days we've seen a pair of former AFC North running backs move to the NFC, creating some drama in the Dynasty running back rankings.
First, Giovani Bernard signed with the Buccaneers. I'd already given Joe Mixon a bump up to No. 8 when Bernard was cut, but this has the opposite effect on Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. Both Tampa Bay backs fell out of my top 30 in what is now a very volatile situation.
The situation in Arizona isn't quite as crowded, with just two backs projected to share instead of three. In fact, a lot of people like Chase Edmonds more after the James Conner signing. What I'll say is that Conner didn't hurt my Edmonds projection. I view both of them as borderline top-25 backs in redraft, with Edmonds having a slight edge on Conner in Dynasty because he's nearly a year younger. For what it's worth, I would take both Cardinals backs over any of the running backs in Tampa.
Now let's get to your questions.
Can you list off your top dynasty buy-low candidates at RB and WR? Josh Jacobs and JuJu seem to be the most obvious if their dynasty start-up price has fallen. Thx.— Bee Darts (@beedeeffb) April 13, 2021
This is an excellent question, but it's also a difficult one to answer because you first have to find an agreement on perceived value. I'll start by saying Josh Jacobs and JuJu Smith-Schuster are excellent calls. Both still have top-12 upside, both are still very young, and both have seen their perceived value take a hit recently.
I'm always a fan of trying to buy low on rookies who don't produce as expected. With that in mind, I wouldn't mind making offers on Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs. A.J. Dillon is another second-year player who is probably cheaper after the Aaron Jones contract than he should be.
One other guy I expect to bounce back in a big way this offseason is Cooper Kupp. He'll be 28 years old, so you should get a discount for age and hopefully you get a discount for his terrible touchdown luck in 2020 as well.
Trade Antonio Gibson for a rookie pick?
What pick in a single QB league would it take for you to move Gibson?— Patrick Haley (@phaleyiii) April 13, 2021
This is kind of a weird question because Gibson is not the type of player you often see traded for a rookie pick. If you don't believe in the player, why is he on your roster? If you do believe in the player, why aren't you betting on a breakout this year?
Anyway, I'd be thrilled to trade Gibson for a top-three pick and I'd strongly consider giving him up for the fourth pick. There's not a huge difference between four, five and six, so if you could get 1.05 and a piece I would approve that as well. Answered a different way, Ja'Marr Chase, Najee Harris, and Travis Etienne are the three rookies I would definitely rather have. Jaylen Waddle, Kyle Pitts and DeVonta Smith are all in the same neighborhood.
Best player available in Superflex?
I would be shopping 1.02 hard. Even in a Superflex league you are stacked at quarterback and one thing about Superflex rookie drafts is that those mid-first round picks are excellent if you don't need a quarterback. But if you keep those picks, I would be aiming for either Ja'Marr Chase or Najee Harris at 1.02 and then hoping for Kyle Pitts at 1.08. If Pitts is gone then you're likely to find one of Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith at 1.08. You should be set at quarterback for at least the next five years, so now is the time to take a couple of swings for the fences at the skill positions.
Trevor Lawrence at 1.05?
1 qb league. My qbs are winston, jimmy g, and teddy. I pick 5 this year, would it be crazy to go qb first overall?— dan81088 (@dan81088) April 13, 2021
This is higher than I have Lawrence in my initial rookie-only rankings, but your quarterback situation is one I would make an exception for. However, one of Pitts or Waddle should still be there and you may be able to get a team to trade up for 1.05 and make it worth your while. My first preference would be to shop 1.05 and see what type of quarterback/draft pick compensation you're offered. A package like Jalen Hurts and a late first would be very tempting. But if you keep 1.05, Lawrence is a fine pick with your roster.
Email of the week
"I currently have six starting RBs with my worst being (Miles) Sanders and (David) Montgomery. I have a strong team (lost championship by two points). Tyreek (Hill) and A.J. Brown are my top 2 WRs. Kyler (Murray) starting (at) QB. Is it a bad idea to keep the RBs so other teams are hurting for them, or do I not worry about other teams and trade for another WR or try for one of the big TEs? 12-team half-PPR, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX, 1 TE, no TE premium.
Well, there's no such thing as too much running back depth, but it does sound like you need to make a deal. You have two of my top five Dynasty receivers, a top five quarterback, and apparently six of my top 20 running backs. I would look trade at least one, possibly two, of them for Mark Andrews or Darren Waller and the best receiver you can get. Tight end appears to be one of the few places where you can actually improve your team and you have the running back depth to make it happen.
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