With free agency rapidly approaching and the NFL Draft not that far behind, it's an uncertain time in Dynasty Fantasy Football. Player values are going to change wildly over the next two months and there are some things we just can't know for sure. But that doesn't mean we can't speculate, and what better place than a Dynasty Mailbag?
Superflex Trade Value
We talked about this on our recent Dynasty podcast, but it seems like the difference in pick value gets overlooked in Superflex leagues. The fact that Trevor Lawrence and at least one other quarterback will likely go in the top five makes this the No. 6 overall pick more like No. 4.
While I do still value Ezekiel Elliott considerably more than I do Tee Higgins, I would not give up a pick that valuable to make the upgrade. For me, the difference between the two is more like a second-round rookie pick, and probably a late first-round pick in Superflex.
Buy or Sell Terry McLaurin?
I am definitely trying to trade for McLaurin while there's still some uncertainty about his future stardom. As I wrote in my redraft breakouts column, I expect a career year from McLaurin in 2021. McLaurin has been a borderline star with a revolving door of poor quarterback play. While 2021 doesn't look better yet, it's hard to imagine it will be worse than what he's already overcome.
In a standard one-quarterback league I would give up any quarterback besides Patrick Mahomes for him. I'd also give up any tight end for him, assuming your league isn't tight end premium. If you want to deal a running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Nick Chubb are both backs I'd trade for McLaurin in PPR. While I haven't totally settled on a top three, I'd also give up any 2021 1st round pick outside of the top three.
What to do with Russell Wilson?
First things first, and I have absolutely no inside information on the matter, it seems highly improbably Russell Wilson plays for anyone other than the Seattle Seahawks next year. He has a no-trade clause, the Seahawks say they don't want to trade him, and it would cripple their salary cap flexibility if they did.
So what do I think of Wilson in Seattle? He's a low-end top-10 quarterback for me in Dynasty and redraft. That makes him expendable in one-quarterback leagues, maybe even a sell if the offer is right. But in superflex or two-quarterback leagues, Wilson still has great value.
He'll be 32 years old at the start of the 2021 season and that would be a concern for any other position. At quarterback, he's still in his prime. While the Seahawks are signaling they want to go back to their run-heavy ways it's worth remembering that Wilson was a Fantasy starter almost every year, even with a low pass volume. He also has enough career left that you shouldn't treat him as if he'll always be in an archaic system.
I'm buying or holding Wilson in any league that allows you to start more than one quarterback.
Aaron Jones trending up or down?
We won't know for sure until we see where Jones lands (he could still stay in Green Bay), but my assumption is that this won't be a downgrade. Jones has the ability to pick his spot, so unless he goes to a bad team solely for the money I see more upside than downside.
The Packers have been pretty committed to a committee approach while Jones has been there. He's never averaged 15 carries per game over a season. If Jones landed somewhere like Atlanta, Miami or Seattle it's quite possible he'd see an increase in workload that more than made up for any lack of efficiency.
I currently rank Jones 14th in Dynasty, but he's close in value to RB8 than he is to RB14. Like McLaurin, I'd be buying Jons during this time of uncertainty.
Acquire Jonnu Smith?
How we feeling about Jonnu Smith now that’s he’s on the move?— LaQuan Jones 🐺🏆 (@RealDealFantasy) March 10, 2021
I'm really conflicted about this one. On the one hand, I've long been a fan of Smith's profile and his athleticism. Tight ends can take a while to figure things out in the league and Smith's been in one of the most run-heavy offenses in football the past two seasons. And he doesn't even turn 26 until August.
On the other hand, Smith has been in the league for four years now. Last year he set career highs across the board, with 65 targets, 41 receptions, 448 receiving yards, and nine total touchdowns. The touchdowns are great, but when was the last time a tight end didn't even reach 450 yards in his first four years in the league turned into something special? Well, it was Logan Thomas, but you could go broke betting on the next Logan Thomas before it happens again.
If Smith got a decent-sized deal with a team like the Chargers or the Colts, I would be intrigued. I certainly think he should be rostered in all Dynasty leagues. But if he gets off to a slow start in 2021 it will be hard to hold on to faith for very long. I'd rather have O.J. Howard.