You may think this time in between free agency and the NFL Draft would be a bit of dead zone for Fantasy football. Our inbox and mentions would disagree. There was no shortage of fantastic Dynasty questions to choose from this week. So much so that I grouped three into one question. Let's start there.
The value of aging wide receivers
The value of Julio Jones in a 12 man .5 PPR.— Casual Fantasy Guy (@CasualGuyFF) March 30, 2021
In my case, I am a contender (I lost in the championship 😭) and he’s my WR3 behind Hopkins and Ridley and I’m trying to get a mid 1 for him but at the same time I think this is his last year of good value.
Help. Me. Please. Lol
When you're 1-2 pieces away from a dominant roster, but some of your existing pieces are getting close to losing their top tier value due to age. Hopkins, Adams, Evans as examples. How to know when to blow it up vs making deals to still compete.— Josh Uron (@JoshUron) March 30, 2021
Three questions for the price of one!
We've pretty much agreed as a community to disregard age until the late 30s for quarterbacks and to shun any running back older than 27. But age at wide receiver doesn't feel like it is a topic with a consensus. I'm not even sure I've fully come to one in my head.
As a rule, I get progressively more nervous about receivers after their age 30 season. That's not to say they can't still be good, Julio Jones was awesome when on the field last year, but every risk seems amplified, and it's hard to expect their Dynasty value to go anywhere but down. With that being said, I would absolutely trade Jones for a mid-first round pick. In my trade chart he's valued about the same as an early second.
When you get to guys in their late 20s, guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham the math gets a little bit more difficult. If you look at Dynasty in a three-year window they are probably about the same risk as a 25 or 26-year-old running back. Not entirely risk free, but it's reasonable to expect something similar to what they've given you the past three seasons assuming the situation stays the same.
With these types of players, honesty with yourself is the most important thing. Because their value will most likely fall in the next two years. Maybe even sooner. If I'm one or two pieces away, as Josh said, I'm definitely keeping studs like Adams and Hopkins and making a run at it. Evans is a slightly different story because of his coming touchdown regression, and Beckham is an entirely different story.
Beckham may be 28, but he has had multiple major knee injuries and he plays in a low-volume pass offense with an average-at-best quarterback. He would absolutely be a sell for me, but his value is also lower than it's ever been. if I couldn't get a second round pick for Beckham (and I wouldn't give a second-round pick for Beckham), I'm probably holding, hoping he gets off to a fast start and then selling as soon as possible.
Kyle Pitts as high as No. 3?
I have the 1.02 & 1.03 in my rookie draft. Guy with 1.01 most likely taking chase. Would you go RB RB if you were me or RB then Pitts or maybe Waddle?— Josh Marton (@joshmarton33) March 30, 2021
Rookie tight ends are almost always bad, but Kyle Pitts may be the exception to the rule. In case you don't know, Pitts is a 6-foot-6, 245-pound tight end with the longest wingspan ever measured for an NFL tight end prospect. Oh yeah, he runs a sub-4.5 40 as well. Did I mention he averaged nearly 100 receiving yards per game in the SEC and scored 12 times in eight games last year? That's the kind of guy who makes you forget about historical trends.
The one risk for Pitts, pre-draft, is that he gets designated as a wide receiver. He'd still be an elite wide receiver prospect, but I don't believe we'd be talking about him as one of the best prospects ever at that position. On the flip side of that risk is the possibility that a team like the Chargers or Colts trades up to get Pitts and gives him 100-plus targets in Year 1. If that happens, he might just be worth the No. 1 overall pick.
So the question above is hard to answer pre-draft, because tomorrow I'd probably just take a pair of running backs. But if Pitts gets designated as a tight end, I would have no problem with him at No. 3 or higher in the right spot.
Trading a mid-round rookie pick
Looking to trade my 2022 first rounder for a contributed this year. I was a middle of the pack team last year. Who are some players I could target?— Knight Who Says Niang (@TheGoose5000) March 30, 2021
First let's address the elephant in the room. Why were you a middle of the pack team last year? If it's because you had a bunch of injuries, then I approve of this move. But if it's because you've got a middling roster, I would be looking to do the exact opposite thing you're doing here. Like I said above, honesty with yourself is key in Dynasty.
That being said, I can answer the question because in the trade chart I linked above I have given approximate values for all of the 2021 first round picks. For reference, I have the fifth pick sandwiched in between Darren Waller and Marquise Brown. Pick No. 8 is right between Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert. But there are some players I value above those picks who your league may not. Those would be my targets. I'll call them my top five players to target with a mid-round pick:
Allen and Lockett are only for true contenders, because they fall in that category of receivers who could start falling off in the next two to three seasons.
Value of No. 2 quarterbacks in Superflex
1. Really appreciate the dynasty push this year. Does not go unnoticed and the first major side to really dive into dynasty.— Robby Jeffries (@NFLRobby) March 30, 2021
2. SF seems to dominate my dynasty leagues. How do you rank some of these potential one-year starter guys?
First, thank you. Dynasty Fantasy Football Central is growing even more than I envisioned. And the way this business works, the more you guys engage with the content, the more content we get to produce. So I appreciate you readers as well!
As for the question, it's a tough one. For 2021 purposes, my favorite on this list would be whoever wins the Saints job this summer. And I do think that Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston (along with possibly Drew Lock) could have more than one-year appeal. Of course, so could Cam Newton if he gels with his new pass catchers.
Newton, Hill, Winston and Lock are my four favorites in Dynasty because of the rushing upside for Newton and Hill and the potential for longevity for Winston and Lock. But which one I prefer depends a lot on where I'm at in my Dynasty. As a true contender, Lock may not even be top-five for me and Ryan Fitzpatrick enters the equation. For a team starting a rebuild I would have no interest in acquiring Fitzmagic and I'd downgrade Newton and Hill as well.
But since you said it, yes, you can check my rankings here. And I even wrote about Winston and Hill in my most recent update.
Do you see Curtis Samuels as a sell high candidate? What would you want in return? Do you see josh Jacobs as a buy low candidate after a terrible offseason but still being young and talented?— STAFFORD4MVP (@sam_wieringa) March 30, 2021
One of these questions is easier to answer than the others. I'm buying Josh Jacobs. The addition of Kenyan Drake has torpedoed Jacobs' value a little too much in my opinion. Jacobs has been a top 15 back his first two years in the league despite the fact he rarely gets a workhorse role. Sure, the Drake signing caps his upside, but Jacobs is still just 23 years old. If I'm getting five more years of what I've got the past two years, I'm thrilled with that as No. 2 running back, which seems to be his value.
With Samuel, I have no idea. Like, none. He's basically got a six-game stretch in four years where he produced like an above average NFL wide receiver. But those six games were awesome and they were his six most recent. I value Samuel as a No. 3 receiver who still has a little bit of upside and a whole lotta risk. Whether I'm selling or not depends on the offer.
I would accept any 2021 first-round pick for Samuel, but not less. At the same time, I'd give him up for someone like Brandin Cooks and feel pretty good about it.