The Tennessee Titans sent shockwaves through the NFL on Sunday when they trade for star wide receiver Julio Jones. The discussion in the industry mostly seemed to center on Jones, Calvin Ridley A.J. Brown, and Kyle Pitts. There was even a little bit of talk about how much the loss hurt Matt Ryan. But there was very little talk about Ryan Tannehill. It's possible that's because it's hard to imagine Tannehill being much better than he's been.
Since the start of the 2019 season, 32 QBs have thrown at least 500 passes. Tannehill ranks second in passer rating (110.6) and TD% (7.2%), first in yards per attempt (8.55) and AY/A (9.23). Last year I told you Tannehill's efficiency had to regress, and it did. But it was still well above average and well above his career rates. With Jones added to the equation, it's really hard to project Tannehill as anything other than one of the most efficient passers in the league -- Especially with the threat of Derrick Henry.
In terms of Fantasy production, he was the No. 2 quarterback in Fantasy after becoming the starter in 2019 and finished last year as QB8 (QB10 on a per-game basis). Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen are the only quarterbacks who have scored more Fantasy points than Tannehill since he became the starter in Week 7 of 2019. Mind you, he did all of this without Julio Jones.
Tannehill is up to QB7 in my redraft rankings and he's cracked the top-12 in the Dynasty rankings below. While it's hard to compare Tannehill you young quarterbacks like Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa, there's one name below Tannehill I expect to draw some attention; Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers has had an event-filled offseason himself. He hosted Jeopardy, he went to the Kentucky Derby, and, oh yeah, he reportedly doesn't want to be a Packer any longer. And the Packers have said repeatedly that they won't trade Rodgers. At the very least that increases the chance of a holdout. Worst case scenario, Rodgers could pull a Carson Palmer (or Brett Favre) and retire until the situation changes to his liking. I still view the most likely outcome as Rodgers suiting up for the Packers in Week 1, but it's far from a foregone conclusion.
That uncertainty, and the age difference between the two, are most of what separates Tannehill from Rodgers. Sure, Tom Brady showed last year that age is just a number, but the year before Brady was outside the top-12. It's not like Rodgers is suddenly surrounded by the star-studded cast Brady enjoyed, or even the dynamic duo Tannehill enters 2021 with.
Below are my updated Dynasty quarterback rankings based on a one-QB league that rewards six points per pass touchdown. Remember, true contenders should value older players more than the rankings below do and rebuilding teams should elevate the younger players a few spots.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.