For years the mantra about quarterback has remained the same: Just wait. There was so much talent and the gap between the best and the merely "good" was smaller than at other positions. Plus, it was extremely rare for the No. 1 quarterback to repeat in the following year. It was easy, in redraft at least, to just wait.
In Dynasty the equation has always been slightly different because quarterbacks have the longest careers, so locking up a young elite signal caller carried more value. That value has been enhanced over the past three years as a handful of quarterbacks have turned in elite performances before their 25th birthday.
Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen have changed the way we view the position. Sure, there are still 18-20 quarterbacks capable of averaging 20 Fantasy points per game, but this quartet has shown 30-point upside regularly. And none of them have turned 26 yet.
Looking at it from a tier perspective really shows how things have changed. Those four quarterbacks fill up the first two tiers, with Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert not too far behind them. All of a sudden we're only halfway through the top 12 but we're already in Tier 4.
You could make an argument that Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson deserve to be in that conversation, though there are plenty of questions about their short and long-term futures. If the surefire-QB1 field is going to expand to make this position feel deep again, it's likely to come from the youngsters.
Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Fields are all on the cusp of the discussion, but all five have plenty to prove. Hurts has shown the most upside, but only for three weeks. Lawrence may be the best quarterback prospect of the past decade, but we've come to expect rookies to struggle as passers. And there are legitimate questions about the health of Burrow and Tagovailoa, or whether Justin Fields will see the field in the first half of 2021.
As the tiers below show, I'm most confident in Lawrence and Burrow from this group. That being said, Tagovailoa's cost is clearly the most desirable. In a recent startup I landed him in Round 12 as QB23, after Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, and Daniel Jones.
The odds are, by the time we get to Week 8 of the 2021 season, a couple of the youngsters will have made the leap and we'll be talking about how deep the position is again. But for now, the elite production and youth of the top-four make them bigger difference makers than we're accustomed to at this position.
Here are the full updated Dynasty Quarterback Tiers: