This time of year I get a lot of requests for "where will <rookie> fit into the rankings, once you add him?" And the truth is, I don't really know. Yes, I put together my first run at 2021 rookie rankings. I even adjusted the pick values a little in the Dynasty Trade Chart, to reflect my feelings on the class as a whole. But actually putting them into my rankings without a 2021 projection -- or even a 2021 team -- is a bridge too far for me.
To make it up to you, I'm doing a pre-draft tiers update with my expectation of where the rookies will slot in.
At quarterback, that conversation should be all about Trevor Lawrence. And honestly, he's the one guy I should be able to lock in now. He's going to be a Jacksonville Jaguar. I even have it projected that way already. While I wouldn't project or rank Lawrence as a top-12 quarterback in redraft, there's no doubt he belongs there in Dynasty.
That means at the very least, Lawrence is in Tier 5 with Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Rodgers. And I can state with a certainty that Lawrence will be no higher than Tier 3 with Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert. The 'just right' tier for Lawrence, based on my pre-draft feelings, is Tier 4 with Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Deshaun Watson. In a vacuum, I think I'd prefer him to Burrow, but Burrow will definitely have a better 2021 projection and a better set of weapons. In terms of rankings, that means I would expect Lawrence to fall between seventh in 10th. Like everyone else in Tier 4 he has a ceiling in the top five, but serious questions about his Dynasty floor.
The next question is whether any other quarterback can sneak into the top five tiers. Justin Fields has the best chance because of his rare combination of rushing upside and passing accuracy. In fact, in the perfect landing spot I could see Fields sneak into the back end of Tier 4. What would that perfect landing spot be at this point? I'd love it if the Broncos traded up for him. Surround him with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant and I'd have no trouble tiering him with Lawrence.
As for Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Trey Lance, I anticipate them being Tier 6 quarterbacks with upside and I wouldn't want to rely on any of them in 2021, even in a Superflex league.
The updated tiers without the rookies really show how the gap is widening between the haves and have nots at the position. Trevor Lawrence should help, as would a leap from Burrow, Hurts and/or Tua. But as of right now, if you don't have a top-six quarterback, you have at least some reason to feel envious of those who do.
Here are the updated Dynasty Quarterback Tiers: