Dynasty Fantasy Football RB Tiers: Value of Derrick Henry and Chris Carson could crater at any moment

Updated Dynasty Fantasy Football Tiers at running back

Most people seem to agree now that tiers are more valuable than rankings when evaluating Fantasy Football players. I'd say that's even more true in Dynasty, because of the contrast between rebuilding and competing teams. But what is even more valuable than telling you the tier a player is currently in is correctly speculating where they'll tier in the future. That's the goal for the July update of Dynasty Tiers. You can scroll to the bottom to see the current tiers, but first here are three running backs whose value could plummet quickly in the coming months.

Derrick Henry is arguably the most difficult player to value in Dynasty. He may just be the best back in Fantasy in 2021 and he's easily a consensus top-5 option. He's also the only running back who will be 27 or older at the start of the season in my top five tiers. Mike Davis and Melvin Gordon will be the two top-ranked 28-year-olds and they're all the way down in Tier 8.

While Henry has been much more productive than Gordon and Davis, there should be little doubt that his current Tier 3 rating is tenuous at best over the next six months. In the best-case scenario, he'll lose one tier at the end of this season due to the fact that he'll be 28 with an enormous amount of carries over the prior three seasons. The worst case is Henry's first major injury, which could drop him close to the Davis/Gordon range.

The bottom line? Unless you're legitimately competing for a title this year, Henry should not be on your roster come Week 1. His value could start depreciating rapidly at any moment and even in the best-case scenario he'll be worth less going into next year than he is now. 

This one shouldn't come as much of a surprise. The Fantasy community has been trying to replace Chris Carson in Seattle ever since he became the starter. And while I don't really think they have a back on the roster to do it now, Carson is just one injury away from possibly falling outside of the top eight tiers. 

Carson doesn't actually turn 27 until just after the season, but his injury history and contract (he's only guaranteed three million after this season) make him a very risky bet. He's never played 16 games in a season and the expectation should be that he's leading a committee this year. We've seen him be a borderline No. 1 running back in that role, and I wouldn't rule out that possibility, but I also wouldn't rule out the possibility that this is the last year he's viewed as a starter in Fantasy. Change happens that fast, just look at Gordon.

Like Henry, you should deal Carson as soon as possible if you aren't a contender. You won't get anything close to the same return, but you'll get a lot more now than you will next offseason.

Kareem Hunt is a year younger than Henry and Carson but he's also not technically a starting running back. Hunt's value is what it is (Tier 6, RB3) because of what he did in Kansas City, the touchdowns he's scored in Cleveland, and the hope that he becomes a lead running back again some day. 

Like Henry and Carson, the odds are that Hunt's value decreases this year. In fact, barring an injury to Chubb or a trade, it seems inevitable. But there's more risk than that. If Chubb stays healthy for 17 games and the trend from the end of last year continues, Hunt may not even have much value this year. In the final eight games of last season (including the playoffs) Hunt averaged just 10.4 touches per game. If he has that same role for the full season and then stays in Cleveland, Hunt's value could really fall off a cliff. 

The only caveat I'd add is that unlike Henry and Carson it is possible Hunt's value could increase in the short term. The team owes him six million dollars in 2022 and none of it is guaranteed. It's not impossible to think Hunt could be starting for someone in 2022, but the odds of that are lower than the odds that his value craters by this time next year.

Here are my updated Dynasty running back tiers: