On Thursday the Arizona Cardinals announced they'd signed Kyler Murray to a contract extension through the 2028 season. In response, I swapped Murray and Lamar Jackson in my Dynasty quarterback rankings for the fifth time in the past 10 months.
The main takeaway from the swap is how close I view Murray and Jackson, but also that Murray does carry slightly less risk than Jackson in Dynasty leagues. They're separated by less than a point in the trade chart below and the difference between them has been similar for most of the past year. Jackson has shown us more full-season upside, but Murray has been close when he's been able to stay healthy. Now we know where Murray will be for the next five-plus years and that's still a bit of a question for Jackson.
While the NFL has evolved over the past decade, the future can still be dicey for run-heavy quarterbacks. Neither Murray nor Jackson necessarily has the build that makes you think they can take a beating over 17 games, but Murray is ahead of Jackson as a passer and now has security in Dynasty if he does miss a year due to injury. Jackson is technically a free agent after this year, though it's admittedly difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Ravens let him walk.
The other thing that helps Murray's floor is that he now has Jackson's former No. 1 wide receiver in Marquise Brown. Jackson still has Mark Andrews, but he'll have to hope for a breakout from Rashod Bateman if he's to have two legitimate options in the passing game. For what it's worth, that's in 2022.
Speaking of Brown, we could see him move up the trade chart if he's next for an extension. Like Jackson, he's currently a free agent in 2023, so getting locked into a long-term deal with his good friend and college quarterback would only help Brown's long-term floor.
Here is my updated trade chart and top 150: