Most people seem to agree now that tiers are more valuable than rankings when evaluating Fantasy Football players. I'd say that's even more true in Dynasty, because of the contrast between rebuilding and competing teams. But what is even more valuable than telling you the tier a player is currently in is correctly speculating where they'll tier in the future. That's the goal for the July update of Dynasty Tiers. You can scroll to the bottom to see the current tiers, but first here are three wide receivers whose value could skyrocket quickly in the coming months.
Henry Ruggs, Raiders
Ruggs was a massive disappointment as a rookie, but that's one of my favorite ways to find value in Dynasty. Ruggs was actually good when Derek Carr threw him the ball, averaging 10.5 yards per target, but he never earned more than five targets in any one game. That can be taken one of two ways. Earning targets is a skill, but also, you probably shouldn't write off a former first round pick with that little exposure to opportunity.
With Nelson Agholor gone, Ruggs will battle John Brown, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow for targets in 2021. If, as a second-year receiver, he can't earn significantly more volume than he did last year, concern is valid. But Ruggs' skill set also projects to be the type that doesn't need a lot of volume, as evidenced by his 2-118-1 line against the Chiefs last year on three targets.
The 22-year-old could very well put up a top-25 season this year, which would vault him into Tier 5 at the very least. He may go even higher in non-PPR, which should be his best format.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs
Like Ruggs, Mecole Hardman was a disappointment who failed to earn enough targets to make a Fantasy impact last year. In fact, they share a lot of traits, including blazing speed. Of course, the advantage Hardman has is that Patrick Mahomes is throwing the football. Whether that's enough to overcome being at best the third option in this offenses is another question.
Reporting from Chiefs OTAs indicates Hardman is the favorite to take over for Sammy Watkins, which could provide all the opportunity Hardman needs based on his elite efficiency. Watkins averaged around seven targets per game the past two seasons in Kansas City if you take away the games he left early due to injury. That would work out to 119 targets over a full season. in his career, Hardman has seen 103 targets and he's produced 67 catches for 1,098 yards and 10 touchdowns. He can take quite an efficiency hit and still be a No. 3 receiver if he can just earn the targets.
If anything, It appears Hardman has even more upside than Ruggs, at least for this year. His connection to Mahomes would likely make people more willing to buy a low volume/high efficiency breakout.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
If Ruggs and Hardman are both low volume/high efficiency breakout candidates, Brown is the exact opposite. He's seemingly the only receiver on the Lions roster who profiles as a short area target and his new quarterback, Jared Goff, doesn't exactly have a monster arm. Goff and St. Brown have already been working together with St. Brown saying Goff is trying to teach the rookie some of the "things Cooper Kupp did".
Quotes in July are worth very little, but compared to Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, and Quintez Cephus, it's easy to see how St. Brown could quickly become Goff's security blanket. He may already be the team's best short-area route runner and the Lions profile as a team that will be playing from behind more often than not.
Unlike Ruggs and Hardman, St. Brown should be better in full PPR if he works his way into the role we expect. He also doesn't have quite as much short or longterm upside as them. For that reason, he may be a prime sell-high if his perceived value jumps too much, but you could still profit off of him in 2021.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.