We all tend to have biases toward specific players. There are the guys who did so well for you last season that you'll want to trust them again. Or the players who are young and have such an easy path to game-breaking upside. Maybe a dude whose highlights you've seen on social media. Or maybe it's as simple as knowing a player's name because he's been in the league a while.
It shouldn't be hard to break any of those biases as long as you remember that you're playing for now. Right now. This year. Who will help you this year? Or more importantly, who won't help you this year?
Here are some bust candidates based on early July Average Draft Position. Aside from a public service announcement about quarterbacks, these are all players I'm skeptical of heading into 2023.
ADP info is from the National Fantasy Football Championship drafts from July 1 to July 10 (39 drafts).
Quarterbacks
General statement on reaching for QBs too soon
On NFC, the elite-tier quarterbacks have the following ADPs:
- Patrick Mahomes, 12.33 overall
- Jalen Hurts, 18.18 overall
- Josh Allen, 18.77 overall
- Joe Burrow, 27.97 overall
- Lamar Jackson, 38.21 overall
- Justin Herbert, 39.10 overall
- Trevor Lawrence, 48.26 overall
All of these are ahead of where I have them ranked. None are top-20 picks, only Mahomes, Hurts and Allen are top-30 picks, and Burrow, Jackson, Herbert and Lawrence (and Justin Fields, don't forget about him!) are between 39th and 70th.
I'm not even in the "wait late for QB" camp! I just want fair values for my quarterbacks, no reaches. And if you're taking a quarterback with a top-20 pick when you only start one, I think you're reaching for one compared to all the other elite talent at the other positions.
So based solely on ADP, nothing else, the above seven players are busts. Based on talent, outlook, offense, etc., none of them are really busts.
Just don't fall into the trap of taking one too early. And maybe take advantage of the value of any of them, especially Fields, if they slide in drafts.
Feel free to give Watson a pass for his 2022 play when he averaged 16.6 Fantasy points per game in his final six. You can even focus on the 24.8 average he had in his final two games versus the Commanders and Steelers. He's still going way too soon as the ninth quarterback off the board in Round 7. We can't say with certainty that Watson will recapture his mind-blowing form from his Houston days, which immediately puts him behind those passers who aren't obvious early-round guys but still carry skyscraper upside like Anthony Richardson, Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott. Hurting Watson further is Browns play-caller Kevin Stefanski, who has never ramped up his pass rate past 54% over five seasons with two teams. Watson was over 57% in each of his last two years in Houston and came back to a 51.6% pass rate in his six games in 2022. Think of him as a potential top-12 passer, not a top-six guy as his past performance would indicate.
NFC ADP: 74.59
I'd draft him: After 110th overall as about the 12th quarterback off the board.
Maybe people believe Jones is a safer quarterback to draft than Anthony Richardson, Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson. I would argue that the last thing you want to do is draft for safety once you get past pick No. 100. Used carefully but efficiently in 2022, Jones averaged 19.9 Fantasy points per game. New York's additions to its offense should keep Jones' completion rate nice and high, but it could keep him from running as much. When plays broke down and Jones scrambled off-script he averaged 7.7 yards per carry with three touchdowns. On designed runs he averaged 4.4 yards with four scores. If his receivers are getting open more often then he won't scramble as much and he might have fewer designed runs. Besides, when was it a good thing when a rushing quarterback didn't even average 22 or more points per game? Tack on a nightmarish projected schedule and Jones figures to come back to earth.
NFC ADP: 74.59
I'd draft him: After 150th overall as roughly the 20th quarterback off the board.
Running backs
Where would Cook have to land to be considered a reliable Round 4 pick? In Miami he'd likely be the lead running back in an offense that ran the ball 37.1% of the time when Tua Tagovailoa was on the field last season. In New York with the Jets he'd essentially be the lead option until Breece Hall is ready to take over, which sounds like it could be sooner than later. Where else would he be in the same position he was last year in Minnesota when he averaged 17.8 touches per game? Until we can answer that question with confidence, the dude should be nowhere near a top-50 pick.
NFC ADP: 44.97
I'd draft him: After 75th overall.
His NFC ADP doesn't bake in enough of his downside. Yes, the injury concerns are obvious and is probably why he's going after 60th overall. But unless the Eagles make a big change in how they use their running backs, he won't have nearly as many chances to be as effective as he was in Detroit. In Swift's three years there he earned an average of 5.1 targets per game. In Jalen Hurts' two years as the Eagles quarterback he's thrown to all of his running backs at an average of 4.8 times per game. And don't even bother to compare running back work at the goal line in Detroit compared to Philly when you know Hurts hogs the work there. There's a very real chance Swift acts as a complementary player in Philadelphia, not as a feature back.
NFC ADP: 67.67
I'd draft him: After 80th overall.
Wide receivers
I'm not even sure Metcalf should be taken ahead of Tyler Lockett -- Lockett has outscored Metcalf on a per-game basis each of the past two years and were 0.3 points apart in 2020! What worries me about both Seahawks wide receivers is the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the offense. The excellent rookie prospect is coming to Seattle to strengthen their three-receiver set and attack the middle of the field, which is territory that the Seahawks had a problem with last year. It should mean a downturn in targets for Metcalf and Lockett. That means neither should be taken anywhere near the first 40 picks, much less the first 30-ish like Metcalf.
NFC ADP: 30.46
I'd draft him: After 50th overall.
There's always excitement in second-year receivers, but what about the second-year receivers who only show flashes as a rookie and wind up playing in a run-first offense without a great quarterback and with a potentially good tight end? London shined in his final four games last year, all with Desmond Ridder, but the 13.6 PPR points per game on a 33% target per route run rate came without Kyle Pitts on the field. Pitts is expected to be ready for Week 1, as will rookie running back Bijan Robinson, who figures to catch a bunch of passes and get valuable red-zone touches. Last year, without Robinson, London averaged 9.6 PPR points per game and a 24.2% target per route run rate in 10 games with Pitts. The quarterback change shouldn't be enough to encourage any better numbers for London and the team is still very clearly committed to the run.
NFC ADP: 41.46
I'd draft him: After 60th overall.
Last year Kirk was a necessary part of the Jacksonville offense. He led them in targets per game (7.8), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (eight) as the de facto No. 1 receiver. The worry now is that Calvin Ridley will either relegate Kirk to the No. 2 option, which he's been for much of his career, or that the two will divvy up targets to the point where neither receiver is a reliable weekly starter beyond a No. 3 option. The least likely scenario is that Kirk's target share expands and keeps him in the fold as a top-20 type, which is why taking him before the end of Round 5 seems bonkers to me. One note: Neither in Doug Pederson's first year in Jacksonville nor in any of his years in Philadelphia did a wide receiver who ran 100 or more routes had a target per route run rate north of 21.6%. That's just a fancy way for me to say that receivers share under Pederson.
NFC ADP: 54.74
I'd draft him: Around 75th overall.
Tight ends
In five games with the full arsenal of 49ers starters down the stretch, including Brock Purdy, Kittle averaged 10.0 PPR points and 4.2 targets per game. This isn't to say Kittle will for-sure play the entire year without anyone on the 49ers hurt, but it is to say that until that's the case, Kittle could starve for Fantasy numbers. It's especially tough to get this considering Kittle caught a ridiculous seven touchdowns over four games with Purdy, plus Purdy's always had a tendency to lean on his tight ends. But it's a case of too many targets in the Niners' offense, and it'll take a major change for Kittle to go back to being more than a soon-to-be-30-year-old, touchdown-dependent tight end.
NFC ADP: 57.64
I'd draft him: Around 80th overall.
Injuries have capped Waller's numbers in each of his past two seasons, but it's his pace in 2022 (9.4 PPR per game) that makes me nervous. Yeah, that's fine for a decent tight end, but not one who's produced massively in the past like Waller. And while his size makes him a differentiator in New York's offense, and that he finished last year looking spry, the Giants offense was focused on spreading the ball around when it wasn't riding the run game. No player had more than 71 targets on the season, no player had any stretch with more than 6.8 targets per game, and the Giants were top eight in run rate overall (47.8%), in the red zone (61%) and inside the 10-yard line (64.3%). If those tendencies continue, Waller will struggle to hoard targets and score touchdowns in the games he's actually healthy enough to play. You could do much better with a breakout player at another position between 65th and 80th overall.
NFC ADP: 75.31
I'd draft him: Around 90th overall.