Fantasy Football 2023 Draft Prep: Breakouts mean career years for Tony Pollard, Jerry Jeudy, Kyle Pitts

This short-but-sweet breakout list lays out several high-upside cases

The only thing better than drafting a stud player is to draft a stud player before he actually becomes one.

I like to classify breakout candidates as guys who are on the verge of having the best years of their careers. Last season, men like Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown qualified. Ask anyone who had them on their Fantasy teams and they'll tell you they played ridiculously beyond expectations.

Really, it's just about opportunities that haven't been presented before. In the case of Jacobs and Pollard, for instance, they saw more carries than they ever had before. They took advantage. Lamb and Brown each saw a career-high in targets overall and in the red zone. They took advantage.

It's that simple, and it's mostly what I'm looking for. But talent and offensive system should also be part of the equation -- we don't want to target players in suspect schemes or players who might be past the point of recording career numbers. It needs to be a situation that checks off all the boxes -- greater opportunities, great talent both within the player and around them, and a great atmosphere to shine.

That's why this list doesn't figure to be too long. It's hard to find these kinds of candidates. But there are enough out there for Fantasy managers to really think about before drafting.

Just don't think too long -- other Fantasy managers will be on the hunt for these same players.

Fantasy point average to beat for a career-high: 20.3 Fantasy points per game

It's pretty easy to point to Calvin Ridley as the replacement for Marvin Jones (and probably Zay Jones too) and expect better numbers for Lawrence. But check this out -- Lawrence's targets dropped 34 of his throws last year per TRU Media (Pro Football Focus had an even higher number), tied for the most with Josh Allen. Marvin Jones had six of them, Zay Jones had seven and Christian Kirk had eight. Those numbers should go down across the board with Ridley on staff. It's also likely the Jaguars will lean on the pass a bit more in 2023 after throwing 58.2% of the time in 2022. They're already trending in that direction -- in their final eight last season the Jags' pass rate increased to 61.6%, good for 10th-most. Lawrence has proven to be accurate and a good decision maker in the red zone; adding Ridley's explosiveness to the offense will only take the QB's game to the next level.

Breakout Projections: 4,475 pass yards, 33 touchdowns; 264 rush yards, 3 rush touchdowns (24.8 Fantasy points per game)
I'd draft him: As the eighth QB off the board (Round 1 in Superflex/two-QB, Round 6-7 in one-QB)

Fantasy point average to beat for a career-high: 15.6 PPR per game

Dallas' offseason moves included signing Ronald Jones, drafting passing-downs back Deuce Vaughn and hanging onto Malik Davis instead of working on a cheaper deal with Ezekiel Elliott. If this holds, Pollard has a highway-wide path to being the main runner in the Cowboys offense. That would mean exceeding the 14.5 touches per game he had last year as well as building on the seven touches he had inside the 5-yard line -- touches normally reserved for Elliott (he had 19!). Pollard should be recovered from a broken fibula and has already been tabbed as the new "lead back" by coach Mike McCarthy. It's worth adding that in the 10 seasons since 2013, a Cowboys running back has had at least 250 touches nine times.

Breakout Projections: 55 catches, 1,558 total yards and 14 touchdowns in 15 games (19.6 PPR per game)
I'd draft him: As soon as 10th overall regardless of format

Fantasy point average to beat for a career-high: 14.7 PPR per game

It's not much of a leap to buy into Stevenson outperforming his 2022 numbers. In eight games when Damien Harris had at least 10 touches last year, Stevenson averaged 12.5 PPR points per game. In six games Harris flat-out missed, Stevenson's average was pumped up to 14.3. Harris isn't on the Patriots anymore and there isn't a clear-cut option to take the ball out of Stevenson's hands on first or second downs. There also isn't a slam-dunk option to take him off the field on third downs -- Ty Montgomery might be the best the Patriots have. Bill Belichick has spoken glowingly about Stevenson over the past year and may be prepared to give the 25-year-old a large dose of work. If you can overcome the stigma of Patriots running backs, you should be rewarded with Stevenson's best year yet.

Breakout Projections: 45 catches, 1,318 total yards and 11 touchdowns in 15 games (16.2 PPR per game)
I'd draft him: As soon as 20th overall regardless of format

Fantasy point average to beat for a career-high: 8.2 PPR per game

This is the least exciting breakout candidate in 2023. White should easily post career-highs, but the hunch is that 2023 will be the best year of his career because it will be the only year he'll have a quality opportunity. That's because he's somehow found himself as the Bucs' primary running back atop a depth chart of mediocrity and in an offense that has a serviceable offensive line and also is extremely likely to be much more balanced with Baker Mayfield under center instead of Tom Brady (who pioneered Tampa Bay to a league-leading 66.7% pass rate in 2022). White won't outrun many defenders, but he plays physical, gives good effort and is better than average in the passing game. So long as the Bucs' depth chart does not change, it wouldn't be a surprise to see White get as many as 17 touches per game, boosted by Mayfield's career-long tendency to target running backs about 20% of the time. You're counting on volume and touchdown opportunities to carry White to mild No. 2 RB status.

Breakout Projections: 56 catches, 1,220 total yards and 7 touchdowns, 3 fumbles lost in 16 games (13.4 PPR per game)
I'd draft him: As soon as 55th overall regardless of format

Fantasy point average to beat for a career-high: 12.7 PPR per game

There are a slew of second-year receivers who anyone can make the breakout call for, but Wilson's unique talent to separate on a dime and speed away makes him the one with the most upside. Getting a healthy Aaron Rodgers at quarterback doesn't hurt either. As a rookie, Wilson averaged over 17 PPR points per game last year when he wasn't catching passes from Zach Wilson. And even when Zach Wilson played, Garrett Wilson caught 61% of his targets at 13.9 yards per catch with 5.4 yards after catch per reception. The 23-year-old is a terrific route-runner with amazing footwork and great hands -- pairing him with Rodgers should net some unreal numbers. Here are two fun stats: One, 34 of Wilson's 147 targets last year -- 23% -- were deemed uncatchable. That shouldn't be as high with Rodgers. Two, of the 17 wide receivers with at least 100 targets from Rodgers in a season, only four failed to get at least 950 yards, and only five failed to get at least seven scores. It would actually be disappointing for Wilson to get just 950 yards and seven scores from Rodgers, but that's the floor.

Breakout projections: 93 catches, 1,330 total yards and eight touchdowns, 1 fumble lost (16.0 PPR per game)
I'd draft him: As soon as 16th overall in PPR, closer to 20th overall in non-PPR

Fantasy point average to beat for a career-high: 13.6 PPR per game

There are lots of things that make me confident that this will be Jeudy's best year. We can begin by looking back -- his final five games of 2022 saw him average a Chase-esque 20.1 PPR points per game even though he had the exact same target per route run rate (22.3%) in those five as in his first 10. He lined up outside way more and his ADOT shriveled, giving him far easier catches and exploding for more big plays. New Broncos coach Sean Payton has a simple philosophy when it comes to his receivers -- use them for their absolute strengths and nothing else. That figures to mean Jeudy will continue working closer to the line of scrimmage and using his precise route running to get open and extend plays for more yardage. Payton's arrival should also mean better, more focused play for Russell Wilson, which obviously helps Jeudy. And he's healthy, which has been an issue for him. The best news? You won't have to take Jeudy quite as high as you had to in the past.

Breakout projections: 81 catches, 1,209 total yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games (15.2 PPR per game)
I'd draft him: As soon as 33rd overall in PPR, closer to 40th overall in non-PPR

Fantasy point average to beat for a career-high: 2.7 PPR per game

I have no 2022 stats of Moore's to back up a breakout campaign. All I can say is that he's a shifty slot receiver who by all accounts has become much more comfortable in an Andy Reid offense piloted by this generation's best thrower in Patrick Mahomes. That's a pretty good start. Here's more: Mahomes finished in the top 10 among all NFL passers in targets to his slot receivers last year but was top five in yards gained (1,190) and touchdowns scored (seven). He was also in those exact same ranges in 2021, 2020 and 2018 as well as top five in yards and touchdowns in his injury-shortened 2019. Obviously the slot receiver is a primary target for Mahomes. Moore indeed lined up in the slot 48.1% of the time in 2022, second behind Mecole Hardman and higher than JuJu Smith-Schuster, both of whom are no longer on the Chiefs. Moore's in a terrific spot to rack up catches and put up some good numbers (and maybe pick up some deep targets too) as a No. 3 receiver all season long.

Breakout projections: 66 catches, 805 total yards and seven touchdowns (11.1 PPR per game)
I'd draft him: As soon as 90th overall regardless of format

Fantasy point average to beat for a career-high: 9.9 PPR per game (2021)

Stats can't always show you what film can, and the film has shown me over the past two years that Pitts can get open. Take last year when Pitts averaged 3.0 targets of 11-plus Air Yards per game and saw uncatchable targets on 53% of those plays. That's not on Pitts; that's on Marcus Mariota, who had one of the highest off-target throw rates last season. Moving from Mariota to second-year passer Desmond Ridder isn't a major upgrade, but at the very least, Ridder completed 63.5% of his throws last year thanks to his short-area accuracy and has room to improve this year. Pitts, meanwhile, ranked among the top 10 tight ends in targets per game (5.9) and had a target per route run rate of 28%, so massive that it was 22nd-best among all tight ends and wide receivers. Pitts can be solid if Ridder has average accuracy, but he can be outstanding if Ridder can take a step forward in his game. An easy projected schedule further helps Pitts' cause.

Breakout projections: 71 catches, 947 yards and six touchdowns in 15 games (13.4 PPR per game)
I'd draft him: As soon as 55th overall regardless of format

Which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.